Arizona: Emerson College Shows a Tightening Race: Emerson College released a new two-way poll of the Arizona Senate race, their first since Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) announced she would not seek re-election. The survey (3/12-15; 1,000 AZ registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects the new Arizona Senate race dropping to within the polling margin of error between Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) and 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. The ballot test finds Mr. Gallego holding a 44-40% lead, which is approaching the toss-up realm.
Within the same polling sample, former President Donald Trump leads President Biden, 48-44%, which is bad news obviously for Mr. Biden, but also for Ms. Lake. With the data showing Mr. Trump leading the Republican ticket in the Grand Canyon State, her standing trails him by a full eight percentage points. While Emerson tested only Biden and Trump and did not include the independent or third party candidates, they did push the undecided respondents to make a choice. When doing so, Trump would lead the aggregate count 52-48%, suggesting the undecideds, which are good prospects to support one of the minor candidates, would break evenly between the two men. Rep. Gallego has an edge among the youngest and the oldest respondents in the sample. He is also rather surprisingly favored, 43-38%, among those who said the economy is their top issue. Ms. Lake is favored by a whopping 77-12% margin among those who are most concerned about the southern border. Maryland: Ex-Gov. Hogan Building Lead: The University of Maryland partnering with the Washington Post released a new survey of the Maryland Senate race (3/5-12; 1,004 MD registered voters; live interview & text) that shows former Republican Governor Larry Hogan building a strong lead in this most Democratic of states. According to the ballot test Mr. Hogan leads US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) 47-39%, while his lead would expand to 50-36% if Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) were his general election opponent. Mr. Hogan also enjoys an extremely positive 64:23% favorability index, while Rep. Trone scores 33:21% favorable to unfavorable, and Ms. Alsobrooks records a 26:15% ratio. Despite Mr. Trone so far outspending Ms. Alsobrooks by a 12:1 ratio ($24 million to $2 million), he leads the Democratic primary ballot test only 34-27% according to this survey. Considering the lopsided spending amount, the ballot test suggests that Rep. Trone is at least slightly underperforming as a statewide candidate. California: Two Vote Margin; Another Race in Doubt: While the California vote totals are still not complete from the March 5th Super Tuesday primary, the battle for second qualifying position in the open 16th Congressional District continues to get tighter and tighter. The latest vote iteration, with an estimated 400+ votes remaining to count, is literally down to a two vote margin.
State Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) now leads San Mateo County Supervisor and former state Senator Joe Simitian (D), 30,211 to 30,209. It is obvious we will see a recount when all the votes are finally tabulated. The Secretary of State has 22 more days to certify the election, and it is likely the tabulation process for this race will consume every bit of the allowable time. Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) has already clinched the first general election position. Incumbent Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) is retiring. Another race is also uncalled. Forty-fifth District Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) has easily clinched the first qualifying position with just under 55% of the aggregate jungle primary vote. Attorney Derek Tran (D) has run in second place during the entire counting period, but he now leads Garden Grove Councilwoman Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D) by only a 327 vote margin and the end result is now in doubt. An estimated 2,500 ballots remain to be counted. IL-12: Rep. Bost Wins Close Primary Battle: It took well into a second day of counting, but Rep. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) successfully won renomination in his southern Illinois congressional district. His opponent, 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey, issued a statement conceding defeat but saying his campaign “made a statement.” The current unofficial tally shows Rep. Bost capturing 51.4% of the vote as compared to Mr. Bailey’s 48.6%, translating to a vote spread of 2,590 from a turnout of over 94,000 individuals. A smattering of ballots will soon be added to the final tally. The district featured wide swings, as both candidates typically won their respective counties by landslide proportions. Both men won 17 of the district’s 34 counties. Ohio: Moreno Wins Big: Chalk up a big mistake for the polling community, as the very tight Republican Senate contest that all involved pollsters predicted proved to be a landslide for businessman Bernie Moreno. The victor will now move into the long general election cycle against three-term Senator Sherrod Brown (D).
With almost the entire state reporting at this writing, Mr. Moreno would have been nominated even if Ohio were a runoff state. He captured majority support, at 50.6%. State Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), who several polls had projected to be leading the race, finished a distant second with 32.8%. Secretary of State Frank LaRose, the field’s only statewide official who was perceived to be falling off the pace as the election drew near, lagged in third position recording just 16.6% support. The result is another big win for former President Trump who, along with Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), had endorsed Mr. Moreno. The victory margin was so complete that Mr. Moreno carried all of the state’s 88 counties. Turnout was heavily Republican. Though he was in a three-way race in the Republican primary and Sen. Brown was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, Mr. Moreno still received more votes last night than the Democratic incumbent. CA-20: Special Election Deja Vu: Last night’s CA-20 special election, held as the first step in replacing House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R), unfolded as a virtual carbon copy of the original March 5th regular primary. Like in that election, it appears that Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield), who is well over 40% support in early returns, will advance into the special general election scheduled for May 21st. Just like in the coming November regular general election, he will face fellow Republican and Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux in the special general.
The special general winner will immediately take the seat and serve the balance of the current term. Regardless of the outcome in May, Messrs. Fong and Bourdeaux will face each other again on November 5th. Illinois: Rep. Bost in Close Finish: While almost all of the congressional primary challengers lost in landslide proportions to the veteran incumbents, southern Illinois Congressman Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) looks to have only eked out a close renomination win over 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee and ex-state Senator Darren Bailey (R), but the turnout projection totals suggest that as many as 30,000 votes could still be outstanding. At this writing, with 75% of the estimated number of total votes has been counted, Rep. Bost has only a 51.8 – 48.2% advantage, a margin of 3,362 votes. The county votes were polarized. Two small counties are not reporting any votes as yet, while Bost has won 17 counties to Bailey’s 15. In virtually every county, the vote produced lopsided leads for either man. It is probable that Rep. Bost’s advantage will hold, but the final result could become much closer. Rep. Danny Davis (D-Chicago), who faced four challengers, managed to break the majority threshold with a 53% total. Because the opposition vote was evenly spread among his challengers, his closest competitor had just under 22%. Reps. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) and Bill Foster (D-Naperville) also faced credible opposition, but both won easily. In the Quad Cities region, retired Circuit Judge Joe McGraw (R) will now challenge freshman Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) in what should be a competitive general election. Ohio: Key House Races Also on Ballot: The top House primary attraction was the special primary for the vacant 6th Congressional District where state Sen. Michael Rulli (R-Salem) and state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus (R-Delaware) battled to replace resigned Rep. Bill Johnson (R). Since this is a partisan special election, the winner advances to a June 11th general election. The result was close most of the evening, but Sen. Rulli pulled away in the final count to score a 49-41% win. Highly competitive crowded battles are underway in the open 2nd District from which Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Hillsboro) is retiring. Three self-funding businessmen led the crowded field, and concrete company owner David Taylor defeated entrepreneurs Tim O’Hara and Larry Kidd by a 25-22-19% split. Mr. Taylor’s victory last night virtually assures him of winning the seat in November in what is Ohio’s safest Republican seat. The other major primary occurred in the Toledo anchored 9th District where Republican state Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Monclova) and former state Rep. Craig Reidel battled for the nomination after 2022 nominee J.R. Majewski dropped out of the race. The race went Mr. Merrin’s way with a 52-34% victory margin. The state Representative now faces 21-term incumbent Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) in the general election in what should be a highly competitive election in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+6. In the Akron based 13th CD, former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin (R) easily defeated local City Councilman Chris Banweg. Mr. Coughlin will now challenge freshman Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) in another competitive Ohio general election campaign. Ohio: Primary Today: A hard fought Republican US Senate primary draws to a close tonight. The contest is a three-way race among state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), Secretary of State Frank LaRose, and businessman Bernie Moreno.
Polling has shown a close race for months. In the closing week, the polling lead has changed hands between Sen. Dolan and Mr. Moreno. The latter man has former President Donald Trump and US Sen. J.D. Vance’s (R-OH) endorsements. Gov. Mike DeWine (R) supports Sen. Dolan. Both Moreno and Dolan have loaned millions of their own personal fortunes into their respective campaigns. Secretary LaRose, the only previously elected statewide official, appears to have fallen well back and consistently into third place. Whatever tonight’s final result, the winner will head into what promises to be a tight and bruising campaign against three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in one of the nation’s most important 2024 Senate races. CA-20: Special Election Today: Despite California’s 20th District voters choosing general election finalists on March 5th, they go back to the polls today to potentially select an immediate successor to resigned House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R). If no candidate receives majority support in today’s vote, the top two finalists will advance to a May 21st special general election. At that point, the winner will take the seat.
Chances are strong that Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) and Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux (R), both of whom have secured regular general election ballot positions for November, will also advance tonight. The field is somewhat different than what was present for the regular election, but the major participants return. The reason this special vote was not made concurrent with the March 5th election is California law stipulates that a specific number of days must elapse between the occurrence of an official vacancy and the subsequent replacement election. Illinois: House Races Dominate: With no Senate or Governor’s election on the Illinois ballot this year, the most interesting elections tonight, now that both parties have presumptive presidential nominees, are for the US House. Several members face primary challenges, but all incumbents are favored to win renomination. For the Democrats, Reps. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago), Danny Davis (D-Chicago), and Bill Foster (D-Naperville) face opponents with either campaign resources or a political base. Chicago Alderman Ray Lopez, who ran unsuccessfully for Congress and Mayor, opposes Rep. Garcia who also lost the 2023 Mayor’s race. Rep. Davis received only 52% in the 2022 Democratic primary and faces four relatively strong candidates. The large number of challengers and the plurality format certainly favors Rep. Davis since his opposition vote will be split among four contenders. Rep. Foster is facing a well-financed effort from human rights activist Qasim Rashid, but his previous electoral experience has come in Virginia. Therefore, expect Rep. Foster to record a comfortable win tonight. The top Republican primary comes in southern Illinois where five-term Rep. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) defends his seat against the 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee and former state Senator Darren Bailey. Though the Congressman has a major financial advantage, the only recent publicly released poll found only a single-digit support difference between the two men. Ohio: Key House Races Also on Ballot: The top House attraction this evening is in the vacant 6th Congressional District where state Sen. Michael Rulli (R-Salem) and state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus (R-Delaware) battle to replace resigned Rep. Bill Johnson (R). Since this is a partisan special election, the winner advances to a June 11th general election. After the subsequent winner is chosen, the individual will immediately take the seat to fill the balance of the current term. Highly competitive crowded battles are underway in the open 2nd District from which Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Hillsboro) is retiring. Tonight’s Republican primary winner will be a lock to claim the seat in November. The other major primary occurs in the Toledo anchored 9th District where Republican state Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Monclova) and former state Rep. Craig Reidel are battling for the nomination after 2022 nominee J.R. Majewski dropped out of the race. The winner faces 21-term incumbent Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) in the general election. Ohio: Dolan Closing Fast: State Sen. Matt Dolan’s (R-Chagrin Falls) campaign may be peaking at exactly the right time as we head into tomorrow’s Ohio primary. Two closing polls post Mr. Dolan to a small lead over businessman Bernie Moreno with Secretary of State Frank LaRose falling back.
East Carolina University (3/8-11; 1,298 OH likely Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system & online) sees Mr. Dolan holding a 33-31-23% edge over Mr. Moreno, who former President Donald Trump and US Senator J.D. Vance (R) support, and Secretary LaRose, respectively. The Main Street Research firm partnering with Florida Atlantic University (3/13-15; 818 OH registered Republican voters; online) finds a similar result at 31-29-19% with the candidates in the same order when undecideds are pushed. Mr. Dolan is ahead 25-24% over Mr. Moreno on first ballot test. The Ohio Republican Senate contest has been close from the outset, and it appears to be ending that way. Whatever the final result tomorrow night, the winner will head into what promises to be a tight and bruising campaign against three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in one of the nation’s most important 2024 Senate races. CA-16: Seesaw Results: Votes continue to be counted in California’s open 16th Congressional District jungle primary and the general election pairing is still yet to be determined. While former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) has secured the first general election ballot position, San Mateo County Supervisor and former state Senator Joe Simitian (D) has re-taken the lead over Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) by just 20 votes. In the previous two released counts, Mr. Low had assumed the lead first by 59 votes and then increasing to a 103 vote span.
The Secretary of State is reporting that over 99% of the votes have been tabulated, but a review of the county outstanding ballot totals suggests that an estimated 600 votes still remain uncounted. Therefore, it is unclear exactly which of these latter two men will advance. We do know, however, that the open seat final will feature two Democrats vying to replace retiring US Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton). OH-6: Rulli Getting Outside Help: A special nomination election and concurrent regular primary will occur tomorrow in Ohio’s 6th Congressional District, which is the first step toward replacing resigned US Rep. Bill Johnson (R). The race is largely between state Sen. Michael Rulli (R-Salem) and state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus (R-Delaware). The latter man has been attacking the Senator over what Stoltzfus claims in Rulli’s support for a bathroom bill that he says would have allowed men to use women’s restrooms. The Defending Main Street PAC organization is coming into the race late to help Sen. Rulli with ads hoping to clarify the legislator’s record. Whoever wins tomorrow’s GOP primary will be a heavy favorite in the June 11th special general election. The winner of that election will immediately take the seat to fill the balance of the current term. OH-6 covers a large section of eastern Ohio that borders Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as R+31. Former President Donald Trump carried this seat with a 64-35% margin in 2020. PA-12: Dem Primary Attack Launched: A competitive Democratic primary is underway in the Pittsburgh area as freshman Rep. Summer Lee (D-Swissvale/Pittsburgh) defends her heavily Democratic district for the first time. Edgewood Borough Councilwoman Bhavini Patel is her principal opponent for the April 24th primary. The Moderate PAC is involving itself in the race, running attack ads against Rep. Lee referring to her as a socialist and one who is out of the Democratic Party’s mainstream. This is becoming one of the hotter primaries on the early primary calendar, and the race deserves attention as the primary draws nearer. Ohio: Conflicting Polls: Yesterday, we reported on an Emerson College poll of the Ohio Senate Republican primary that posted state Senator Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) to a 26-23-16% edge over businessman Bernie Moreno and Secretary of State Frank LaRose, respectively. Now we see a Survey USA study (3/6-11; 1,241 OH registered voters; 533 likely Republican primary voters; online) that projects Mr. Moreno holding a 22-18-16% lead over Sen. Dolan and Secretary LaRose. The closeness of both polls suggests any of the three still has a chance to win this coming Tuesday.
AK-AL: New Poll Shows Ranked Choice Toss-up Result: A new Data for Progress survey (2/23-3/2; 1,120 AK likely general election voters; web to text) finds a very tight impending at-large congressional race with no clear leader after several hypothetical rounds of Ranked Choice Voting. Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) leads the original field of businessman and former congressional candidate Nick Begich III (R), Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), and Libertarian Chris Bye by a 44-35-10-2% break. In Ranked Choice Voting, the primary sends four candidates to the general election and the pollsters project these individuals would be the eventual finalists.
Since no one receives majority support in the initial round, RCV begins, and Mr. Bye is eliminated. In the second round, Rep. Peltola would lead 48-41-12% over Begich and Dahlstrom. This result would lead to Ms. Dahlstrom’s elimination. The third round finds Peltola and Begich in a dead tie at 50-50%. Though Rep. Peltola has a ten point personal favorability spread, the best of all the tested politicians, it appears the electoral system makes this race a toss-up. California: General Election Becoming Clearer: More vote totals are being released from the long California ballot counting process, and congressional general election matchups are now becoming cemented. In preparation for Tuesday’s special election to replace resigned House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, it is now likely that we will see a double-Republican regular general election between Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) and Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux. To the Democrats’ benefit in open Districts 30 and 31, Democratic-Republican general elections appear to be the final result. Such pairings would almost assuredly elect state Assemblywoman Laura Friedman (D-Burbank) to replace Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), and former Congressman Gil Cisneros (D) returning to the House to succeed retiring Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk) also appears to be a certainty. The closest race is occurring in open District 16 where Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) is retiring. Former San Jose Mayor Sam Riccardo (D) has secured the first general election position, but the battle for second place is still undecided. San Mateo County Supervisor and former state Senator Joe Simitian (D) has yielded second place to Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell). The razor thin margin is only 59 votes between the two according to the Secretary of State’s official count. An unspecified number of ballots remain uncounted. District 16 will definitely send two Democrats to the general election, but the second finalist position is still undecided. CO-4: Boebert Won’t Run in Special: Colorado US Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) announced yesterday that she will not compete in the special election to replace resigning Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor) but will remain in the race for the full term. Colorado Republican Party chairman Dave Williams, who is himself a congressional candidate in open District 5, announced that he will be assembling a committee of party leaders and elected officials to choose a 4th District special election nominee within “the next several weeks.” Gov. Jared Polis (D) has already said he will schedule the special election concurrently with the state’s June 25th primary election. The Democrats have a selection committee of over 200 members and the party leadership says a special vote to choose their nominee will occur on April 1st. The move not to enter the special makes sense for Boebert. It is highly unlikely that she would be chosen as the committee’s nominee since she currently represents another district. Therefore, if the Congresswoman wins the regular primary election it is irrelevant as to who would hold the seat for the remainder of this term. Unless the special election winner also wins the regular primary on the same day, then said person will not compete in the general election. |
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