Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy released the Senate version of their new Florida survey (2/7-10; 625 FL registered voters; live interview) that finds incumbent Marco Rubio (R) establishing a consistent edge beyond the polling margin of error (in 6 of the last 7 polls) over Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando), the former Orlando Police Chief. The M-D ballot test gives Sen. Rubio a 49-42% advantage.
Mr. Rubio leads in all geographic sectors of the state with the exception of the southeast Florida region, where the state’s heaviest concentration of Democrats reside. He posts a 44:37% favorability ratio, while Rep. Demings records a 27:11% mark. The latter ratio suggests room to grow for the Democratic candidate because her name ID is relatively low outside of the Central Florida region. The Florida Senate race will be one of the country’s most expensive campaigns. Sen. Rubio had already raised over $24 million at year’s end, while Rep. Demings was close behind with $20 million in campaign receipts. Hedge fund manager John Conyers III, son of the late Michigan Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit) who won 26 US House elections and became Dean of the House, announced he will compete for the Democratic nomination in the open 13th District that houses downtown Detroit.
At this point, state Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) has loaned his campaign $5 million, which likely gives him more resources than any other candidate. Others announced but did not have to file disclosure reports as yet are state Sen. Adam Hollier (D-Detroit), Detroit School Board member Sherry Gay-Dagnogo, former Detroit Police Chief Ralph Godbee, and attorney Michael Griffie. This race will be decided in the August 2nd Democratic primary. According to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, the new MI-13 is rated as D+46. Four-term Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-Garden City) announced yesterday on her 57th birthday, that she will not seek re-election later this year. Saying, “I have always believed that holding political office is neither a destiny nor a right. As elected officials, we must give all we have and then know when it is time to allow others to serve,” the Congresswoman released in a written statement.
Prior to her election to the US House in 2014, Ms. Rice serve as Nassau County District Attorney for ten years after being a prosecutorial staff member. Ms. Rice is the 30th Democrat to not seek re-election to the House. The open 4th District is rated as a Lean Democratic. Since the district only reaches the outer realm of competitiveness, the new Democratic nominee will earn the inside track toward victory. Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy also released the Governor’s version of their new Florida survey (2/7-10; 625 FL registered voters; live interview) and we again see Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) running well against both major Democratic candidates. Opposite Rep. Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg), who leads the Democratic field with a 44-27-3% margin over state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried and state Sen. Annette Taddeo (D-Miami), Gov. DeSantis holds a 51-43% edge. He leads Ms. Fried, 53-42%, and Sen. Taddeo, 53-37%. The DeSantis job approval ratio is 53:43% favorable to unfavorable.
Democratic Lt. Gov. Josh Green opens with a major advantage according to a new Public Policy Polling survey (2/8-9; 644 HI likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text). Mr. Green faces two announced opponents in former First Lady Vicky Cayetano and ex-Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell in the Democratic primary. US Rep. Kai Kahele (D-Hilo) is a potential candidate in the August 13th nomination election. The PPP data finds Lt. Gov. Green holding a 46-14-10-5% lead over Rep. Kahele, Ms. Caytano, and Mr. Caldwell, respectively. Hawaii does not have a runoff system, so the winner need only garner the most votes.
Solar Company executive Jim Lamon (R), who has launched a major TV media blitz to promote his fledgling US Senate campaign, appears to be on the right track. According to a new independent co/efficent Arizona GOP primary poll (2/6-8; 755 AZ likely Republican primary voters; text & automated interview responses), Attorney General Tim Brnovich continues to lead the crowded primary, but his margin over Mr. Lamon is now only 17-13%. Closely following is venture capitalist Blake Masters at 12%, while former Arizona Adjutant General Mick McGuire posts only 3% support.
This race is obviously closing, but it appears the contest will at least turn into a three-way race for the party nomination that won’t end until August 2nd. The eventual nominee will then face Sen. Mark Kelly (D) in a critical contest from a national majority perspective. A pair of new statewide Ohio Republican US Senate primary surveys finds businessman Mike Gibbons overtaking former state Treasurer Josh Mandel to claim first place in the battle to succeed retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R). A co/efficent survey (2/6-8; 613 OH likely Republican primary voters; text & automated interview responses) posts Mr. Gibbons to a 20-18% lead over Mr. Mandel, with state Senator and Cleveland Guardians MLB club minority owner Mike Dolan, former state Republican Party chair Jane Timken, and author J.D. Vance trailing with 7-6 and 5% support, respectively.
The new Cyngal research firm’s internal poll for the Gibbons campaign (2/8-10; 609 OH likely Republican primary voters; SMS text & email) gives their candidate a much larger margin over the rest of the field. The Cygnal numbers find Mr. Gibbons holding 23% support, with Mandel, Vance, Timken, and Dolan trailing with 11-9-8 and 6%, respectively. The Gibbons’ media blitz, to an extent featuring Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) endorsing the investment banker’s candidacy, has clearly succeeded in making Mr. Gibbons a top-tier candidate. The Ohio primary is May 3rd. US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) is becoming a prohibitive favorite for the Democratic nomination. Former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung (R), who was the Republican gubernatorial nominee in both 2014 and 2018, announced that he will enter the open 2nd Congressional District race in hope of succeeding retiring 11-term Congressman Jim Langevin (D-Warwick). Redistricting won’t change the state’s two congressional districts substantially, as the 1st District needs to shed only 5,617 people to the 2nd, and that will likely come from the Providence area. Both seats will remain reliably Democratic. Since it was believed that Rhode Island might lose one of its districts in reapportionment, at 548,690 residents per district the state has the second smallest CDs in the country.
Mr. Fung is a prohibitive favorite for the Republican nomination but will be a decided underdog to whomever wins the crowded Democratic primary. The Rhode Island nomination election won’t occur until September 13th. WPA Intelligence released a new internal survey for West Virginia Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town), as he faces fellow GOP Rep. David McKinley (R-Wheeling) in a paired incumbent new 2nd District. The Mountain State lost a seat in reapportionment, hence the need for the two being placed in the same CD.
According to the WPAi study (2/2-3; 406 WV-2 likely Republican primary voters; live interview), Rep. Mooney would command a 43-28% lead. A month before, Public Opinion Strategies released a survey (1/4-6; 400 WV-2 likely Republican primary voters; live interview) giving Mr. Mooney a similar 45-32% advantage. Before the first of the year, polling posted Rep. McKinley to the lead. The Arkansas Patriot Fund super PAC, an organization that conservative donor Dick Uihlein principally funds, is spending a reported $900,000 on a media blitz to promote Republican challenger Jake Bequette, a former star football player at the University of Arkansas who later became a US Army Ranger. The ad attacks the “Socialist Democrats” and saying that “too many Republicans are too weak to stop them.” The ad features a picture of Sen. John Boozman (R) as the narrator utters the latter phrase, but does not identify him by name. The Arkansas primary is May 24th.
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