Public Policy Polling, surveying for the Northwest Progressive Institute (2/17-18; 700 WA likely voters; live interview & text) finds Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley gaining on Sen. Patty Murray (D) according to the study analysis. The ballot test finds the Senator still holding a comfortable 50-41% lead, but the margin is an under-performance for a Washington Democratic incumbent.
The latest survey is a four-point gain for Ms. Smiley when compared to the November NPI survey (Public Policy Polling; 11/10-11; 909 WA likely voters) that posted the Senator to a 50-37% advantage. A month earlier, Survey USA (10/15-28; 542 WA registered voters) found Sen. Murray leading with a more substantial 49-31% margin. Therefore, enough data confirms that at least a moderate swing toward Ms. Smiley is occurring. While no one has yet announced their candidacy to replace the late Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-Blue Earth/Rochester), one potential leading candidate did make her intentions clear. State Sen. Carla Nelson (R-Rochester) said that she will not enter the congressional race, stating her preference to remain in the legislature.
Sen. Nelson ran in the 2018 congressional election, when the seat was last open, but placed a poor second to Mr. Hagedorn in the Republican primary. The special primary is scheduled for May 24th, with the special general on August 9th, concurrent with the statewide nomination election. While Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) still has not officially announced that he will seek re-election to a 19th term, his actions are speaking louder than his words. According to news sources, the Congressman’s campaign is launching an ad wave that will begin this week. Mr. Upton seeking re-election will yield a spirited paired Republican primary with fellow US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) and state Rep. Steve Carra (R-Kalamazoo), the latter of whom carries former President Trump’s endorsement.
Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) may have received 86% of the New York State Democratic Party convention delegate votes for official endorsement, but the latest polling numbers still show her under 50% with rank and file Democratic voters. Siena College (1/14-17; 803 NY registered voters; 396 NY likely Democratic primary voters) finds the Governor pulling 46% among Democrats, but way ahead of NYC Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) who draw 17 and 9% support, respectively. Within the respondent sample as a whole, Gov. Hochul’s personal favorability is 46:32% positive to negative. Her job approval ratio, however, is an upside down 44:51%.
The University of Texas at Tyler released another of its statewide polls for the Dallas Morning News (2/8-15; 1,188 TX registered voters; 276 live interview, 912 online panel respondents) and it finds Attorney General Ken Paxton, under federal indictment since 2015 with no action, leading his three Republican primary opponents but with a margin that likely sends the race to a secondary runoff election.
The ballot test finds Mr. Paxton leading State Land Commissioner George P. Bush, son of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, former state Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman, and US Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler) by a 39-25-13-7% split, respectively. This will be one of the key races to watch in the March 1st Texas primary. The runoff election, if necessary because no candidate earns majority support, will be held on May 24th. Northern California US Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock) fared poorly in redistricting and, as a result, has hopped around to three districts in the San Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys attempting to find a suitable place to seek re-election. When Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Stockton) announced his retirement, Rep. Harder switched from the Fresno area anchored 13th open district to run in the former’s 9th CD. Now, Mr. Harder will apparently have serious Democratic opposition in this district that could be on the edge of the competitive matrix in the general election.
Over the holiday weekend, Jose Hernandez (D), a former NASA astronaut who held then-Rep. Jeff Denham (R) to a 53-47% re-election victory in 2012, announced that he, too, will enter the open seat 9th District campaign. San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti appears to be the leading Republican, meaning this race will be interesting in both the June 7th jungle primary and for the general election. The death of Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-Blue Earth/Rochester) on Friday will lead to a special election to fill the balance of the remaining term. According to Minnesota election law, Gov. Tim Walz (D) will schedule the special general concurrently with the Minnesota statewide primary on August 9th. The special primary, must be 11 weeks earlier, thus translating into May 24th.
This will be an important special election in that it could be a reasonable test case for the general election because the politically marginal 1st District has flipped between Democrats and Republicans since 1982 and not seen a congressional election winner reach 51% since 2014. The Louisiana state legislature sent Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) an adopted congressional map that leaves the state’s 5R-1D delegation intact. Should the Governor sign the measure, civil rights groups are ready to file a lawsuit contending that another majority minority seat could be drawn in the state.
The North Carolina legislature agreed on a new map after the state Supreme Court rejected their first draw. This map must obtain court approval by tomorrow. The plan creates at least four highly competitive seats and gives both parties a chance to win a majority of the NC seats. The high court struck the original map over arguments that the plan was a partisan gerrymander. Gov. Dan McKee (D) signed the Rhode Island congressional map, which made little change between the state’s two districts. Both will remain safely Democratic. Only six states remain without completing at least an original version of their congressional map. Two, North Carolina and Ohio, have already had their original draws rejected by state courts. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), who ascended to the Governorship when then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) resigned under pressure, was slated as the endorsed Democratic candidate at the New York State Democratic Convention toward the end of last week. She garnered 86% of the delegate votes. The remaining statewide incumbents, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, were also slated, which came as no surprise.
The other Democratic gubernatorial candidates, US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams now must petition their way onto the Democratic primary ballot, which is an arduous task under New York party rules. Though a rather unimpressive showing for a sitting Governor within his own party leadership, the voting members of the Ohio Republican Party’s state central committee awarded Gov. Mike DeWine the official party endorsement but only on a 36-26 vote. This vote further suggests that Mr. DeWine will face a potentially competitive gubernatorial primary on May 3rd against former Congressman Jim Renacci (R).
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