The new open general election Tennessee Governor’s race sees its first published poll, and Republican businessman Bill Lee is opening with a 51-40% lead over former Nashville Mayor Karl Deen (D). Gravis Marketing (8/9-11; 620 TN likely voters) finds the eleven-point ballot spread in their latest Tennessee statewide survey. Gov. Bill Haslam (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
A new Gravis Marketing poll (8/9-11; 620 TN likely voters) finds Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) now assuming a 48-44% edge over former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) in one of the early post-primary Tennessee political surveys.
Businessman Bill Lee stormed in from the outside to move past both former Economic Development Commissioner Randy Boyd and US Rep. Diane Black (R-Gallatin) to win the open Republican gubernatorial primary on Thursday. Mr. Lee scored a 37-24-23-15% victory over Boyd, Black, and state House Speaker Beth Harwell (R-Nashville), respectively. Former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean easily won the Democratic nomination, topping state House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh (D-Ripley) with 75% of the vote. Mr. Lee is now favored to succeed term-limited Gov. Bill Haslam (R).
Freshman Tennessee Representative David Kustoff (R-Germantown) is in a fight for re-nomination in this Thursday’s Republican primary. He again faces local physician and former Shelby County Commissioner George Flinn, who has the financial wherewithal to spend heavily on his political campaigns. In the 2016 open Republican primary that featured 13 candidates, Mr. Kustoff was nominated with only 27% of the vote topping Mr. Flinn’s 23%, which allowed him to finish second. Now, in his fourth run for a congressional seat, Mr. Flinn is forcing a re-match.
This weekend President Trump decided to involve himself in the race and endorsed Congressman Kustoff. This could have a significant effect on the western Tennessee district since the President captured 66% of the vote here in the 2016 general election. The 8th District primary will be one of the many interesting races on the Tennessee primary ballot come this Thursday. Despite Gov. Bill Haslam (R) asking for out-of-state political leaders to stay out of the Republican gubernatorial primary, Vice President Mike Pence made clear his support of US Rep. Diane Black (R-Gallatin), and issued a formal endorsement. The Tennessee race began with four first-tier candidates, but the contest realistically appears to be coming down to a battle between Rep. Black and businessman and former state Economic Development Commissioner Randy Boyd. The Tennessee primary is scheduled for this coming Thursday, August 2nd.
A series of four polls were released within the July 2-14 period, and both Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) and former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) find public data projecting them as the race leader. As we covered last week, the Axios Media Survey Monkey poll (6/11-7/2 (for their 13 state polls); 1,010 TN registered voters) found Rep. Blackburn leading definitively at 55-41%. This was followed by a WPA Intelligence poll (7/9-11; 551 TN likely voters) that found her ahead, but with a more pedestrian 38-35% margin.
Public Policy Polling simultaneously released their data (7/10-11; 583 TN likely voters) that saw Mr. Bredesen up 44-41%. Now, Emerson College publishes their Tennessee poll (7/11-14; 657 TN likely voters) that projects Bredesen to an even larger 43-37% advantage. Combined, this tells us that we have no clear current leader at the present time. Mr. Bredesen has the statewide name identification and positive image advantage, while Rep. Blackburn’s solid conservative base and Tennessee’s voting history since the former Governor left office are the key points in her favor. On the heels of the Axios Media/ Survey Monkey public poll that gave Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) a strong 55-41% advantage over former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), the Public Policy Polling organization released their data conducted for the liberal Duty and Country political action committee (7/10-12; 583 TN likely general election voters). These results see the ex-state chief executive holding the advantage, 44-41%, which tends to be in line with most other previously published surveys.
Similar to the Montana situation, differing poll results suggest volatility within the electorate, meaning more research is necessary before we can accurately determine a present trend. US Rep. Diane Black (R-Gallatin) and businessman Randy Boyd each lead the Republican primary race for Governor according to two new polls. The Data Orbital firm surveyed the Tennessee Republican electorate from June 27-30, questioning 700 likely Republican primary voters through the Interactive Voice Response system. They find Rep. Black leading businessman Mr. Boyd by a single point, 24-23% for the August 2nd Republican primary, with a large 24% factor saying they are undecided. Businessman Bill Lee is third with 19%, followed by state House Speaker Beth Harwell (R-Nashville), who receives 10% support.
US Rep. Diane Black (R-Gallatin) released the results of her new OnMessage gubernatorial survey (5/14-17; 600 TN likely GOP primary voters) that post her to a sizable 41-28-9-8% advantage over former state Economic Development Commissioner Randy Boyd (R), State House Speaker Beth Harwell (R-Nashville), and businessman Bill Lee (R). The Tennessee primary is Thursday, August 2nd. Gov. Bill Haslam (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
--Jim Ellis Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategies (4/17-19; 625 TN registered voters) tested the all-but-certain general election contest between former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) and Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood). Like other recent polls, the M-D numbers project the former two-term Governor to be holding a slight lead. According to the results, Mr. Bredesen has a 46-43% edge. All of the traditional coalition groups are lining up as expected for their respective candidates. Ms. Blackburn’s biggest problem is trailing among Independents, 49-35%.
--Jim Ellis |
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