Businessman and former state Republican Party chairman Gary Emineth confirmed yesterday that he will enter the 2018 North Dakota Senate race. Mr. Emineth will face state Sen. Tom Campbell (R-Grafton) in the Republican primary, which may end at the state endorsement convention. Most often, North Dakota candidates abide by the state delegates’ expressed preference. The Emineth move had been expected since at-large US Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck) passed on challenging incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) in order to instead seek re-election.
--Jim Ellis For months, at-large Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck) has been saying that he’s considering challenging Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) next year. Yesterday, he made his long awaited for announcement, and decided to seek a fourth term in the House. Mr. Cramer’s decision leaves only state Sen. Tom Campbell (R-Grafton) as a viable GOP candidate against Sen. Heitkamp. The decision reverses the latest trend that we’ve witnessed of Representatives deciding to leave the House and either retire or pursue a different office.
--Jim Ellis State Rep. Rich Becker (R), who competed in the 2016 state Republican Convention for the Governor’s nomination, said yesterday that he will not become a US Senate candidate. Mr. Becker had been openly considering running for the party nomination to oppose first-term North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D). At-large US Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck) still maintains he is contemplating a Senate bid, but the only person to actually come forward to declare his candidacy is state Sen. Tom Campbell (R-Grafton).
--Jim Ellis State Treasurer Kelly Schmidt (R) stated publicly at the end of last week that she will not enter the US Senate race next year. Currently, only state Sen. Tom Campbell (R-Grafton) is a declared candidate lining up to oppose Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D). At-large US Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck) remains a potential contender, but says he will not make a decision until next year. Former at-large Rep. Rick Berg (R) also refuses to close the door on running.
North Dakota is a non-binding convention state, but the eventual candidate who wins majority delegate support at the April state Republican Party convention will likely become the nominee. Though this will be a competitive race, Sen. Heitkamp begins as the favorite to win her first re-election campaign. --Jim Ellis The 1892 polling firm, a company that has conducted several surveys for North Dakota political campaigns, released their new study for state Sen. Tom Campbell (R-Grafton), an announced GOP US Senate primary candidate. The poll (10/11-12; 500 ND registered voters; 400 ND likely Republican primary voters) gives Sen. Campbell a 32-24% lead over former at-large US Rep. Rick Berg in a hypothetical GOP primary. Mr. Berg has not announced his Senate candidacy, and more than likely will not do so. The general election numbers are highly surprising, however, and will have to be confirmed in future surveys. The results: Campbell leading Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D), 44-41%. Currently, the Senator is favored for re-election, but polls such as this suggest a highly competitive campaign is on the North Dakota political horizon.
--Jim Ellis A new potential Republican candidate could be soon coming forward if the latest WPA Intelligence survey (9/10-11; 406 ND likely voters) is a precursor to an announcement. State Treasurer Kelly Schmidt (R), an individual not previously mentioned as a potential candidate, actually leads first-term incumbent Heidi Heitkamp (D), 48-44%, according to the WPA data. State Sen. Tom Campbell (R-Grafton/Grand Forks) is a declared candidate, but was not tested in this poll. At-large US Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck) is still a potential candidate but has taken no discernible action to form a Senate campaign. This is the first poll of any kind this year to show Sen. Heitkamp trailing.
--Jim Ellis The first Republican to announce a Senate challenge to North Dakota first-term incumbent Heidi Heitkamp (D) came forward yesterday to publicly declare his statewide bid. State Sen. Tom Campbell (R-Grafton), active in the financial services, real estate, and agriculture industries, officially entered the statewide campaign. Most of the pre-campaign attention had been centered upon at-large US Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck), but the more time progresses the less likely it appears that the Congressman will make the challenge. This race will be viewed as competitive, but Sen. Heitkamp must be rated as the favorite to win a second term.
--Jim Ellis |
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