Democratic US Senate nominee Cal Cunningham, a former state Senator, has been consistently leading in recent polling against first-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R), and the new East Carolina University poll (8/12-13; 1,255 NC registered voters; 879 through Interactive Voice Response systems, and 376 from an online panel) continues the trend. The ECU numbers find Mr. Cunningham holding a 44-40% lead over Sen. Tillis, while the same sample finds President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden tied with 47% apiece in a state where winning is critically important the former man’s national prospects.
Emerson College Polling released a series of surveys conducted over the August 8-10 period in four presidential swing states, and in each case the results seem to cut against the average trend. In Pennsylvania (843 likely voters) and Arizona (861 likely voters), Emerson projects former Vice President Joe Biden to be running well ahead of the margin he has been posting lately. Both states showed a seven-point spread with no undecided voters. The Emerson pollsters often push respondents for a choice between major party candidates, which eliminates the undecided category.
In North Carolina (873 likely voters) and Minnesota (733 likely voters), President Trump is performing better than the average, leading in the Tar Heel State by one percentage point, and trailing in Minnesota by just two points. The latter number is significantly below the 8.6% Biden average spread determined from the last five Minnesota published polls prior to Emerson’s release. Four-term North Carolina Rep. Richard Hudson (R-Concord) is in a tight race with former state Supreme Court judge Pat Timmons-Goodson (D) according to a new poll. A brilliant corners Research & Strategies survey (7/23-30; 800 NC-8 likely voters) finds the Congressman’s lead at only 43-41% in his re-drawn district under the court-ordered new congressional map. The Congressman, however, holds a $1.77 million to $619,000 cash-on-hand advantage.
Two survey research companies tested the Tar Heel State electorate within days of each other, and their combined results in the Senate and Governor’s races could hardly be more different. Redfield & Wilton Strategies conducted surveys in several states. Their North Carolina poll was conducted from July 19-21 and interviewed 919 likely general election voters. Cardinal Point Analytics went into the field during the July 22-24 period and interviewed 735 likely voters.
The presidential cut was relatively close between the two pollsters. Redfield found former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump by just one point, 43-42%. Cardinal found the President holding a two point lead, 47-45%. The Senate and Governor’s races, however, yielded strong differences. Redfield found former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) leading Sen. Thom Tillis (R), 47-36%. Cardinal, however, sees the two candidates falling into a 43-43% tie. Redfield sees Gov. Roy Cooper (D) holding a substantial advantage over Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R), 51-37%. Cardinal projects this race to be tied, as well, 46-46%. Again, different methodologies and samples are often producing large variances during the 2020 election cycle. A Cardinal Point Analytics survey (713-15; 537 NC likely general election voters), while producing consistent numbers with other pollsters in the presidential and US Senate races, finds Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R) closing to within three points of Gov. Roy Cooper (D). The latter man has typically been recording double digit leads in other surveys.
In the presidential race, Cardinal finds President Trump holding a one point 49-48% edge in a state that he must win, and Democrat Cal Cunningham leading Sen. Thom Tillis (R), 47-44%. Both of these numbers are well within the ranges that other pollsters are reporting. Yet, in the Governor’s race, Mr. Cooper’s advantage is only 49-46% as compared to the average 10.5 percentage point lead he has in six other surveys conducted since the beginning of June. Two North Carolina US Senate polls were released yesterday showing just how different separate polling samples can behave.
The Democratic firm Change Research, which prides itself on developing its “Bias Correct” methodology, conducted their North Carolina survey as part of a national study over the June 26-28 period that included five other states and an aggregate 3,729 respondents. Without understanding the characteristics of the North Carolina portion of the sample, it is difficult to determine accuracy for this particular state. In any event, Change produces a 51-41% lead for ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) over first-term US Sen. Thom Tillis (R). Conversely, East Carolina University (6/22-29; 1, 149 NC registered voters), in a sample we can study, finds a much different political picture. According to the ECU conclusions, the two candidates are tied at 41% apiece. Siena College and the New York Times are again partnering to produce a series of political polls as they did last year. Yesterday, mid-June results were made available for Senate races in Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina. The results are consistent with what we have been seeing for quite some time in these three frequently polled states.
Retired astronaut Mark Kelly and Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) maintain their recent approximate ten-point advantages over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) and manufacturing company owner John James (R) in Arizona and Michigan, respectively. The North Carolina race, which is predicted to seesaw between Sen. Thom Tillis (R) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) again produces a tight result for Siena/NYT. We’ve seen six similar polls released for the state in June, including S/NYT, and the margin between the two candidates hover between one and four points. The Siena/NYT result shows a three-point edge for Mr. Cunningham. Of the six surveys, four find the Democrat slightly ahead with two favoring Sen. Tillis in a similar realm. Western North Carolina voters spoke loudly yesterday as real estate investment company owner Madison Cawthorn recorded a 66-34% landslide win over former local county Republican chair Lynda Bennett in the postponed Republican runoff election. This, despite Ms. Bennett having former Rep. Mark Meadows’ and President Trump’s endorsement. Mr. Cawthorn, who barely makes the qualifying age requirement to be a candidate, won 16 of the district’s 17 counties. He now becomes a strong favorite to defeat Democratic nominee Moe Davis, a retired US Air Force colonel, in the general election.
Voters in New York, North Carolina, and Virginia will choose congressional nominees in various districts today. New York hosts the most competitive slate, with ten competitive primaries coming to culmination.
The vacant 27th District will be filled in a special election between state Sen. Chris Jacobs (R-Buffalo) and Democratic former Grand Island town official Nate McMurray. The competitive incumbent challenges to Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Bronx) and Eliot Engel (D-Bronx) will also produce a nominee along with lesser challenges to Reps. Yvette Clarke (D-Brooklyn), Jerrold Nadler (D-Manhattan), and Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan). Key open seat primaries will be held in the 15th (Rep. Jose Serrano-D, retiring) and the 17th (Rep. Nita Lowey-D, retiring) districts, both featuring crowded fields. The Republicans will also choose a successor to retiring Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford). Western North Carolina voters will replace now White House chief of staff Mark Meadows on their state’s 11th District November ballot. Former local county Republican chair Lynda Bennett and real estate investment company owner Madison Cawthorn will square off in the postponed Republican runoff election. In Virginia’s 5th District, Democrats will choose their nominee to oppose former Campbell County Supervisor Bob Good (R), the man who denied freshman Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-Manassas) re-nomination in the June 13th Republican district convention. Gravis Marketing surveyed the North Carolina electorate (6/17; 631 NC registered voters), and though they found a surprising result in the Governor’s race (see below), Gravis once again detects a very tight contest between Sen. Thom Tillis (R) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D).
The Gravis numbers give Sen. Tillis a one point, 46-45%, edge, and we can expect to see polling numbers such as these all the way to Election Day. Clearly, this race will remain in toss-up mode all the way through November 3rd, which is typical for a North Carolina statewide campaign. |
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