The Montana State University at Bozeman just released a statewide survey (4/10-27; 738 MT adults; 548 MT likely voters; online) that tested the presidential race and the US Senate campaign (see Senate section below). The results find President Trump leading former Vice President Joe Biden 45-40%. This is a much lower total than the President’s 20-point victory here in 2016 over Hillary Clinton. More polling will undoubtedly be released after the June 2nd statewide primary.
The Montana State University at Bozeman also covered the US Senate race in their statewide poll (4/10-27; 738 MT adults; 548 MT likely voters; online) and it returns a surprising result. Their data finds Gov. Steve Bullock (D) opening the race with a seven-point lead over incumbent Sen. Steve Daines (R), 46-39%.
It appears the major reason for Gov. Bullock’s early advantage is his solid 70% approval rating on his handling of the Coronavirus situation. On the negative side, with a very long 18-day sampling period, the poll is vulnerable to reliability points of inquiry. If this pattern continues to emerge, however, the Montana Senate race will become a top-tier challenge campaign. It is clear that former state Representative and 2018 at-large congressional nominee Kathleen Williams is primed to again become her party’s statewide candidate. Ms. Williams announced on Friday that she will report $486,000 raised for the 1st quarter 2020, with $1.1 million cash-on-hand. Her Democratic primary opponent, state Rep. Tom Winter (D-Missoula), raised only $74,000 and has just $88,000 in his campaign account. The winner will face a strong open seat Republican candidate in the general election, most likely State Auditor and 2018 US Senate nominee Matt Rosendale (R). Incumbent Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-Bozeman) is running for Governor.
Late last month, Gov. Steve Bullock (D) ruled that each of Montana’s counties could conduct the June 2nd statewide primary solely by mail if they so desired. Yesterday, a report was released indicating that election officials in all of the state’s 56 counties have selected the mail option, meaning that the June 2nd primary vote will be conducted entirely through the postal system.
Gov. Steve Bullock (D) filed to challenge Sen. Steve Daines (R) on the final day of the candidate qualifying (March 9) and is already in a dead heat race with the incumbent according to the first published poll of the new contest. Public Policy Polling, surveying for the progressive left group, End Citizens United (3/12-13; 903 MT registered voters) finds the two statewide elected officials tied at 47% apiece. Sen. Daines has a favorability ratio of 45:42% favorable to unfavorable, while Gov. Bullock’s numbers are a slightly better 49:40%. Consistent with the others, President Trump’s job approval is 50:46%.
The Public Policy Polling approval numbers always skew toward the negative. Therefore, it is safe to assume that all three men have a better image than this poll suggests. Clearly, the Democrats have their strongest candidate to challenge Sen. Daines, and this will now be a competitive race. It is likely the state will swing Republican as the election draws closer, but we can expect a very active general election campaign in Big Sky Country. The Public Policy Polling survey mentioned above (see MT-Senate) also tested the open at-large congressional district that most likely will feature State Auditor Matt Rosendale (R) and former state Rep. Kathleen Williams (D). Both have partisan primaries to be decided on June 2nd, but each is expected to become the respective standard bearer. The PPP numbers find Mr. Rosendale and Ms. Williams to be locked in a toss-up open seat campaign. According to the poll results, the two are deadlocked at 45% apiece.
Both Mr. Rosendale and Ms. Williams were in competitive 2018 races. The former lost to Sen. Jon Tester (D), 50-47%, while Ms. Williams fell to at-large Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-Bozeman) 51-46%. This year, Mr. Gianforte is running for Governor, hence the congressional seat becoming an open race. The field is set for the June 2nd Montana Republican and Democratic primaries for the state’s lone congressional seat. State Auditor Matt Rosendale (R), who has run for a different office in every election of the current decade, looks to be the man to beat for the nomination after running a respectable effort against Democratic Sen. Jon Tester (losing 50-47%) in the 2018 general election. He has a wide lead in campaign resources over Secretary of State Corey Stapleton, President Trump’s endorsement, and support from the Club for Growth organization. Four other Republicans, including former Montana Republican Party chair and ex-state legislator Debra Lamm, are also on the ballot.
For the Democrats, 2018 nominee Kathleen Williams, a former state legislator who held incumbent Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) to a 51-46% victory, returns for another attempt. State Rep. Tom Winter (D-Missoula) opposes her for the party nomination. A competitive general election is forecast. This is likely the last at-large congressional race to be run in Montana. The state looks to gain a second seat in the coming reapportionment. The state candidate filing deadline yields two competitive gubernatorial primary battles. For the Republicans, at-large US Representative and former gubernatorial nominee Greg Gianforte will battle Attorney General Tim Fox. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney and Whitney Williams, daughter of former US Rep. Pat Williams, will oppose each other to advance into the general election. We can expect strong contests in both primaries, and what should be a close general election irrespective of who wins both nomination campaigns.
With the state candidate filing period closing yesterday, outgoing Gov. Steve Bullock (D), who repeatedly said he would not challenge Sen. Steve Daines (R), reversed course as many predicted and filed to run.
With Sen. Daines scoring a 58-40% victory in 2014 and President Trump racking up a big 56-36% win here in 2016, Gov. Bullock, despite winning two terms as the state’s chief executive, begins this race as the underdog. Still, the Democrats have successfully transformed what was an easy re-election ride for Sen. Daines into a highly competitive battle. For months, Gov. Steve Bullock (D) repeatedly stated he has no interest in running for the Senate, but apparently his position has changed. Gov. Bullock launched an ill-fated presidential campaign, and since its collapse Democratic officials including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) have been attempting to recruit him to oppose first-term Sen. Steve Daines (R). Numerous media outlets are reporting that Bullock will announce his Senate bid on Monday, the deadline for candidate filing in Montana.
Though Gov. Bullock is the best candidate the Democrats could recruit, Sen. Daines is in strong political shape. An excellent campaigner with over $5 million in the bank at the end of last year, the Republican Senator is more than ready for the challenge. |
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