The 2nd District of Missouri, heretofore believed to be safe for three-term Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Ballwin/St. Louis County), now is moving into the competitive realm and presumably in a highly spirited campaign state. According to an Expedition Strategies survey (8/23-26; 402 MO-2 registered voters) Democratic challenger Cort VanOstran has actually taken a 43-41% lead over Rep. Wagner. The Congresswoman has just under $3 million in her campaign account, so she certainly has the resources to reverse this latest trend.
NBC News/Marist College polled the Missouri Senate race (8/25-28; 930 MO adults; 774 MO registered voters), and like all other results we’ve seen, the ballot test is close. According to these results, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) leads Attorney General Josh Hawley (R), 44-40-5-3% with the Libertarian and Green Party candidates obtaining the later two figures. If the contest were only between McCaskill and Hawley, the two candidates would fall into a 47-47% tie. The culmination of data again suggests that this Senate race remains in the toss-up category.
A new WPA Intelligence survey (8/12-14; 501 MO likely voters) posts Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) to his strongest lead over Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) since a Gravis Marketing survey found him trending seven points ahead back in May. According to WPA, the first-term AG has opened a 48-41% advantage over the two-term incumbent Senator. This is a major increase since WPA’s mid-July poll that found Mr. Hawley ahead just 43-42%.
Though this poll finds Hawley in stronger position that the other recent pollsters, two others in July and August also see a tight race with no particular advantage for the Democratic incumbent. Democratic pollster TJP Strategies for the Missouri Scout political blog (8/8-9; 1,785 MO voters) found the two candidates tied at 47%, while an early July Remington Research study (7/7-8; 1,034 MO voters) projected Hawley to a 48-46% edge. A new TJP Strategies survey for the Missouri Scout political blog (8/8-9; 1,785 MO likely voters) finds Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) and Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) in a flat tie at 47%, apiece. The result is in line with other recent publicly released surveys. No poll has showed anything but a race where the two contestants are in a virtual dead heat.
The results are tight across the board. Little gender gap exists. Among women, Sen. McCaskill prevails, 49-45%. Among men, Mr. Hawley captures slightly more support, 48-45%. McCaskill does well, unsurprisingly, in the Kansas City and St. Louis areas, while Mr. Hawley does best in southwest and southeast Missouri. The biggest warning signal for Hawley is his 25% share of the self-described “moderates”, in comparison to Ms. McCaskill’s 68% support factor. Voters in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Washington, and Ohio’s 12th Congressional District (special general election) went to the polls yesterday to choose nominees, and the races detailed below are not yet officially called.
Republican state Sen. Troy Balderson (R-Zanesville) appears to have defeated Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor (D) in the central Ohio special congressional election by a scant 50.2% of the vote, meaning a 1,754 unofficial vote margin. Mr. Balderson will take the seat once the vote is officially certified. But, the two will again do battle in the general election as both won the Ohio regular primary back in May. The Kansas gubernatorial, 3rd Congressional District Democratic nomination, and the Washington 8th District second qualifying position are still undecided as counting continues. In Johnson County, Kansas, possibly as many as 26,000 votes remain uncounted, which will decide whether Gov. Jeff Colyer or Secretary of State Kris Kobach wins the Republican nomination. Though Gov. Colyer trails, the Johnson County tabulation looks to favor him, and provide enough of a margin to overcome his current 191-vote deficit. The eventual winner will face new Democratic nominee Laura Kelly, a Topeka state Senator, and credible Independent candidate Greg Orman in the general election. In the 3rd District, Democrat Sharice Davids, a former White House Fellow, looks to be increasing her lead over Bernie Sanders’ backed attorney Brent Welder as new votes are added to the tally. If the present trend holds, she will face four-term Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Overland Park) in the general election. It will likely be at least a week before we know who advances into the general election against Republican Dino Rossi from Washington’s 8th District. Physician Kim Shrier (D) and attorney Jason Rittereiser (D) are locked in a tight battle for second place. In the jungle primary format, the top two finishers advance to the general election. Because Washington uses an all-mail voting system and allows ballots to be postmarked on Election Day, it can take many days to count all of the ballots. Regardless of the final primary result, this will be a close general election battle. Voters in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Washington, and Ohio’s 12th Congressional District (special general election) go to the polls today to choose nominees. All host important House campaigns. Open Governors races are featured in Kansas and Michigan, and the Wolverine State Republicans will also choose an opponent for Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D). The Missouri Senate race is set, and Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) and Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) will both become official nominees today.
Central Ohio hosts a special House election that appears to be a close contest for what should be a Republican seat. State Sen. Troy Balderson (R-Zanesville) and Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor (D) are the two candidates. The winner takes office immediately to serve the remainder of resigned Rep. Pat Tiberi’s (R) final term in office. Mr. Tiberi resigned in late January to accept a major leadership position with an Ohio business advocacy organization. The Missouri Senate race may arguably be the most topsy-turvy race in the country so far this year. Most polls have shown just a small lead for one contender or the other but, in most, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) has enjoyed a small advantage. Yesterday, however, Remington Research released its new Show Me State survey for the Missouri Times news site (released 7/10; 1,034 MO registered voters via automated response device) and finds Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) slipping back into the lead, posting a slight 48-46% edge over Sen. McCaskill. We can expect this race being rated a toss-up all the way to Election Day.
A new Democratic Senate Majority PAC survey (Global Strategy Group; 6/11-13; 804 MO likely voters) finds Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) moving into her strongest position within this current election cycle. Recovering from hits taken during former Governor Eric Greitens’ (R) extra-marital affair scandal that forced him from office prior to impeachment and being charged with felonies, Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) has now fallen behind Sen. McCaskill, 47-41%, according to the GSG results. Previous polls have shown a much closer race, a spread usually in the plus or minus two percentage point range.
Likely due to his handling of the Greitens scandal and removal from office, Mr. Hawley’s personal favorability index dropped to 21:29% positive to negative. By contrast, Sen. McCaskill registers 47:45%. As has been reported nationally, Gov. Eric Greitens (R), in order to escape potential felony charges hanging over his head after some were recently dismissed, agreed to resign his office as part of an informal plea bargain arrangement. Lt. Gov. Mike Parson (R) will ascend to the office on Friday after the Governor officially leaves office. This situation has been developing for several months and is associated with the Governor’s highly publicized extra-marital affair. Incoming Gov. Parson, a former state Senator and Representative who represented the region east and south of Kansas City and north of Springfield, will serve through 2020. He would be eligible to run for a full term at that time.
--Jim Ellis A new survey from the Missouri Scout news service (5/9-10; 888 MO registered voters) finds Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) clinging to a 48-44% lead over Attorney General Josh Hawley (R), which is her best showing since the last Missouri Scout poll (4/19-20) that produced exactly the same result. Other surveys, from four other pollsters, found a much tighter contest. The ranges come all the way from Hawley leading by one point to McCaskill ahead by two. Expect this to be another of the hard fought toss-up Senate races that will occur later this year.
--Jim Ellis |
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