Minnesota has proven itself as the Democrats’ most loyal state in the presidential contest, last voting for a Republican, then-President Richard Nixon, in 1972. Every other state has gone Republican at least once during the 1972-present time span.
We are now seeing curious polling data coming from the state, but with a consistent trend. In late July, former Vice President Joe Biden was enjoying huge polling leads over President Trump. One survey, from Public Policy Polling (7/22-23; 1,218 MN voters) posted Mr. Biden to a ten-point, 52-42%, advantage. Now, however, the Minnesota race is brandishing much different numbers. Just before the state’s August 11th primary election, Emerson College conducted a statewide survey (8/8-10; 733 MN likely general election voters) and found Mr. Biden’s lead dropping to only two points, 51-49%, in a poll where respondents were pushed to make a choice between the pair of candidates. Now, the Trafalgar Group, the only pollster to correctly predict Wisconsin and Pennsylvania at the end of the 2016 election, finds the two candidates locked in a dead heat. Their most recent survey (8/15-18; 1,141 MN likely voters) sees the two men battling into a 47-47% tie. Since Hillary Clinton only won here in 2016 with a 1.5 percent margin, Minnesota is a state to watch as the presidential campaign hits its full stride. Both veteran Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes) and former Lt. Governor and ex-state Senate President Michelle Fischbach (R) easily won their respective congressional primaries on Tuesday night, but a pre-primary poll just released projects the challenger in unusually strong shape.
According to a Tarrance Group poll (8/2-5; 413 MN-7 likely voters), Ms. Fischbach would lead Rep. Peterson by a full ten-point margin, 52-42%. This, in President Trump’s strongest congressional district (Trump ’16: 62-31%) that sends a Democrat to the House of Representatives. Rep. Peterson, chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, is running for a 16th term. Emerson College Polling released a series of surveys conducted over the August 8-10 period in four presidential swing states, and in each case the results seem to cut against the average trend. In Pennsylvania (843 likely voters) and Arizona (861 likely voters), Emerson projects former Vice President Joe Biden to be running well ahead of the margin he has been posting lately. Both states showed a seven-point spread with no undecided voters. The Emerson pollsters often push respondents for a choice between major party candidates, which eliminates the undecided category.
In North Carolina (873 likely voters) and Minnesota (733 likely voters), President Trump is performing better than the average, leading in the Tar Heel State by one percentage point, and trailing in Minnesota by just two points. The latter number is significantly below the 8.6% Biden average spread determined from the last five Minnesota published polls prior to Emerson’s release. The aforementioned Emerson College survey also asked a question about the Minnesota Senate race that is now officially between Sen. Tina Smith (D) and former US Rep. Jason Lewis (R). While other polls have yielded the Senator a lead of approximately ten percentage points, this survey finds her margin dropping to only three points, 48-45%. Both Sen. Smith and Mr. Lewis were easy winners in their respective primary campaigns last night.
Polarizing US Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) defeated local Democratic attorney Antone Melton-Meaux, 57-39%, in their expensive Democratic primary contest that drew over 160,000 voters. Both candidates raised well over $4 million for their respective campaign efforts.
In the expansive northwestern Minnesota district, the strongest Trump seat in the nation that elects a Democratic Representative, former Lt. Governor and state Senate President Michelle Fischbach easily won the Republican primary against two significant opponents. She defeated David Hughes, the 2016 and ’18 nominee who held Rep. Peterson to 52% victories both times, and Dr. Noel Collis, who spent heavily on television advertising. The general election between Ms. Fischbach and House Agriculture Committee chairman Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes) could quickly evolve into a toss-up campaign. Public Policy Polling, surveying for the Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence organization (7/22-23; 1,218 MN voters via interactive voice response device), ran one of their push polls for the impending Senate race between Sen. Tina Smith (D) and her likely GOP opponent, former US Rep. Jason Lewis (R).
The poll asked leading questions on the gun issue ostensibly after they queried the Senate race ballot test. According to the results, Sen. Smith holds a 48-39% lead over Mr. Lewis, which suggests this could become a viable Republican challenge race if the latter man can increase his fundraising and statewide presence. In 2018, Jim Hagedorn was one of two Republicans to win a Democratic congressional district. He scored an open seat 50.1 – 49.7% victory over former Defense Department official Dan Feehan (D), a margin of just 1,315 votes. Mr. Feehan returns for a re-match this year, and a new Victoria Research & Consultants poll (7/19-23; 511 MN-1 likely general election voters) finds the Democrat jumping out to a small lead, 48-46%. Early signs suggest that the second election between these two candidates could be just as close as the first.
In 2018, Republican Jim Hagedorn scored a close 50.1 – 49.7% win over former Defense Department official Dan Feehan (D). Now, we head into a re-match general election this year, and a new Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group internal campaign survey (6/9-13; 601 MN-1 likely general election voters) finds the new race beginning just as close as the former contest ended.
According to a GHY, Mr. Feehan holds a slight 43-42% edge, meaning we will likely see another race in toss-up mode all the way to Election Day. Minnesota’s 1st District covers all of the state’s southern border and has been moving more toward the Republicans in recent elections. It was one of only three seats that flipped from Democrat to Republican in 2018. Minnesota, the most loyal of all states to Democratic presidential candidates, was close in 2016 when Hillary Clinton carried the state with only a 1.5 percentage point margin. A new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey (5/18-20; 800 MN registered voters) finds presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading President Trump, but the spread again suggests the state election could be close. According to M-D, Mr. Biden holds a 49-44% advantage. Minnesota carries 10 electoral votes. This state is a must-win for Mr. Biden.
Former Minnesota Governor and professional wrestler Jesse Ventura announced that he will not become a candidate for the Green Party presidential nomination. Mr. Ventura says doing so would force him to relinquish his employment and health insurance.
The Green Party will have a nominee who will qualify for slotting on most state ballots, as will the Libertarian Party. Michigan Rep. Justin Amash (L-Cascade Township/Grand Rapids), now the first official Libertarian Party member to hold a seat in Congress, is a candidate for his party’s presidential nomination. |
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