As part of the Change Research swing state polling series (8/21-23; 809 MI likely voters), the pollsters tested the US Senate contest between first-term incumbent Gary Peters (D) and challenger John James (R). According to this data from a Democratic polling firm, the race is getting closer and evolves into the types of margins we were seeing before the COVID-19 shut down.
The CR results find Sen. Peters currently leading Mr. James, 50-45%. Sen. Peters has dominated the 32 publicly released polls between mid-March and the end of July. Since August began, however, three of four surveys find Mr. James closing to within five points or less. For the Democrats to gain the Senate majority, Michigan is a must-win state. Further signs are occurring showing the presidential race getting closer. Democratic pollster Change Research just released a series of surveys in six crucial 2020 swing states, Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, during the August 21-23 period with sample sizes ranging from a low of 344 likely voters in Arizona to a high of 1,262 similarly chosen poll participants in Florida.
While CR projects former Vice President Joe Biden to be leading in all six states, at least four of which (AZ, FL, NC, and either MI, PA, or WI) are must-wins for President Trump, the Democratic nominee’s lead has dwindled to between one and six points in all of these places. Two Democratic polling firms surveyed key presidential swing states over the same time period. Though they both see former Vice President Joe Biden leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, their margins, at least in two of the states, were leagues apart.
In Michigan, Redfield and Wilton Strategies (8/16-18; 812 MI likely voters) gave Mr. Biden a 12-point, 50-38%, lead while Civiqs, polling for the Daily Kos Elections Page (8/13-17; 631 MI registered voters), projected only a three point advantage for the now-official Democratic nominee, 49-46%. In Wisconsin, Redfield & Wilton (8/16-19; 672 WI likely voters) posted Biden to a ten-point lead, 49-39%, while Civiqs (8/13-17; 754 WI registered voters) yielded him only a six-point, 51-45%, edge. Turning to Pennsylvania, the two pollsters found an identical seven-point spread, however. Redfield & Wilton (8/16-17; 1,006 PA likely voters) saw a 48-41% Biden lead, while Civiqs (8/13-17; 617 PA likely voters) forecast a 51-44% margin. A week after the Michigan primary that saw state Rep. Jon Hoadley (D-Kalamazoo) win a surprisingly tight Democratic primary victory and veteran Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) score only 63% in his GOP primary race, a new poll finds the challenger opening with a small advantage. RMG Research, polling during the primary voting period (7/30-8/6; 500 MI-6 registered voters), finds Mr. Hoadley taking a four-point, 40-36%, lead over Mr. Upton.
Considering this poll was taken during the primary voting period and most of the spending and communication action was on the Democratic side, it is not particularly surprising to see Mr. Hoadley getting a bump. Additionally, Rep. Upton scoring only 36% after winning 17 consecutive congressional elections in southwest Michigan appears questionable and is likely much too low a depiction of his true support level. As more votes are tabulated, updates are available for the August 4th primary campaigns that were too close to call.
Michigan’s 6th District Democratic primary was a seesaw affair between state Rep. Jon Hoadley (D-Kalamazoo), who spent over $760,000, and teacher Jen Richardson, who expended just over $66,000. In the end, Mr. Hoadley prevailed 52-48%, and now advances into the general election to face veteran Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph). In the state’s open 10th District Republican contest, financial executive Lisa McClain, who self-funded $1.4 million of the $1.6 million she spent, defeated state Rep. Shane Hernandez (D-Port Huron), 42-36%, to secure the GOP nomination. In Michigan’s CD 10, doing so is tantamount to winning the seat in the Fall. The Washington jungle primary results in that state’s open 10th District are still days away from being final because they allow ballots to come in after Election Day, but we do see an update. With an estimated 51% of the vote tallied, former Tacoma Mayor Marilyn Strickland (D) is projected as clinching one of the general election slots with just 21.5% of the vote. The second position is up for grabs between state Rep. Beth Doglio (D-Olympia) at 14.5% and former state Rep. Kristine Reeves (D) who records 13.0% preference. The top finishing Republican is Rian Ingrim in fourth position with 10.8 percent. Under Washington’s jungle primary law, the top two finishers advance into the general election regardless of vote percentage earned. In all, 19 Democrats, Republicans and Independents were on the ballot. Incumbent 10th District Rep. Denny Heck (D-Olympia) is leaving the House to run for Lt. Governor and finished first with 27.2% of the vote. It appears he and fellow Democrat Marko Liias (16.9%), the state Senate Majority Floor Leader, will advance into the general election. Michigan’s 6th District delivered two surprises last night. First, 17-term Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) was re-nominated, but with only a 62% victory against realtor Elena Oelke who spent virtually no money on her campaign. But, the Democratic side of this race was even more surprising as teacher Jen Richardson, who raised just $75,000 for her campaign almost slipped past state Rep. Jon Hoadley (D-Kalamazoo) despite the latter man pulling in almost $1.4 million. The general election will be competitive.
In the 3rd District, Peter Meijer, whose family owns the Meijer grocery stores with 253 locations throughout the Midwest, easily won the open 3rd District Republican primary. Mr. Meijer now becomes the general election favorite against attorney Hillary Scholten who was the unopposed Democratic candidate. The November winner replaces retiring Libertarian Rep. Justin Amash (L-Cascade Township/Grand Rapids). In her primary campaign, freshman Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) easily defeated Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones, and the open Republican 10th District is still too close to officially call but is appears that financial executive Lisa McClain in poised for victory. Voters in five states will cast their ballots today, including the controversial Kansas Senate Republican primary. The state also features three important congressional primaries and one, in the 2nd District, that could deny freshman Rep. Steve Watkins (R-Topeka) re-nomination. Electorates are also voting in Arizona, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. Arizona and Michigan feature Senate races, but the general elections in both states are set. Governors’ races are occurring in Missouri and Washington.
Rep. Paul Mitchell (R-Dryden) is retiring after two terms, and a competitive GOP primary has formed to replace him. The winner of tomorrow’s Republican nomination contest becomes a prohibitive favorite for November.
We see a closing poll published. WPA Intelligence, surveying for the Club for Growth (7/14-15; 400 MI-10 likely Republican primary voters), finds state Rep. Shane Hernandez (R-Port Huron) leading self-funding financial executive Lisa McClain and retired Air Force General Doug Slocum, 33-27-10%. Mr. Hernandez is a Club for Growth endorsed candidate. Gravis Marketing conducted a series of surveys in the Great Lakes Swing states during the July 22-24 period, and came to some interesting conclusions. While President Trump had largely been polling better in Wisconsin when looking at the three regional swing states, Michigan and Pennsylvania being the other two, Gravis sees a different cut.
Their results find former Vice President Joe Biden leading Mr. Trump in Wisconsin (6/22; 796 WI likely voters via an interactive voice response system and through an online poll of cell phone users), 50-42%, and Michigan (6/22; 754 MI likely voters via an interactive voice response system and through an online poll of cell phone users), 51-42%. The Pennsylvania numbers, however, reveal the closer ballot test. Here (6/22-24; 1,006 PA likely voters via interactive voice response system and through an online poll of cell phone users), Mr. Biden leads only 48-45%. In 2018, ex-state Rep. Rashida Tlaib and Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones split the two election contests to replace resigned Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit) with the former winning the full term and the latter woman taking the special election. Now, the two battle in a re-match Democratic primary to be settled August 4th.
This time, Ms. Jones lacks for campaign resources, and the incumbent’s overwhelming financial advantage, $2.87 million to $135,000, looks to have put this race away. A new Target Insyght poll (7/20-22; 500 MI-13 likely Democratic primary voters) finds Rep. Tlaib leading Ms. Jones, 52-24%, with the incumbent having a 70:16% favorability ratio within her primary voting base. |
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