Things continue to go extremely well for Republican Gov. Larry Hogan in this most Democratic of states. It is now being reported that the Maryland chapter of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, AFL-CIO will formally endorse Gov. Hogan for re-election. This will mark the first time that any segment of the public employees’ union will endorse a Republican gubernatorial candidate.
Maryland-based Goucher College, which often polls Maryland political campaigns, released a new statewide study (9/11-16; 831 MD adults). The results find Gov. Larry Hogan (R) moving out to a prohibitive lead over former NAACP president Ben Jealous (D) in his race for re-election. According to Goucher, the Governor holds a 54-32% advantage.
The fact that this is a poll of “adults” and uses a universe apparently not even screened for registered voters could give the Governor some enhanced artificial support because he is the more well-known candidate, so it’s possible that the registered or likely voter ballot test would be a bit closer. Irrespective of the polling segmentation, Republican Gov. Hogan appears headed for re-election even in this most Democratic of states. Total Wine, Inc. founder and CEO David Trone, who won the Democratic primary in the open 6th District back in late June, announced that he is battling kidney cancer. Despite undergoing chemotherapy treatment and kidney removal surgery scheduled shortly, Mr. Trone says he will continue his campaign and intends on serving the succeeding term in the House should he be elected.
Mr. Trone is a heavy favorite to win the open seat in November and replace three-term Rep. John Delaney (D-Potomac), who is leaving Congress to begin a long shot 2020 presidential nomination campaign. The Republican nominee is 2016 congressional candidate Amie Hoeber, a former State Department official. Gaining endorsements from Democratic leaders and former officeholders, Gov. Larry Hogan (R) is building a strong re-election effort despite his party being in a severe minority in this most Democratic of states. According to a new Gonzales Research & Media Services poll (8/1-8; 801 MD registered voters), Gov. Hogan now holds a 52-36% advantage over Democratic nominee Ben Jealous, the former NAACP president. At this point, Gov. Hogan is forging a clear path to secure a second term.
Former NAACP president Ben Jealous, the Maryland Democratic nominee for Governor, just released the results of his Garin Hart Yang Research poll taken in mid-July (7/10-14; 601 MD likely general election voters) that finds him trailing Gov. Larry Hogan (R), 49-40%.
Also, a key labor union that backed losing 2014 Democratic nominee Anthony Brown, the Laborer’s Union of North America, just announced their support for Gov. Hogan. The Jealous move to release a dated poll in which he is behind on the heels of what should be an allied group defecting to his opponent is a sign the campaign is trying to inject some life into its effort. While nine points is a significant deficit, such a margin can still be overcome, hence the belated effort to stem the building tide against him. After spending much time trying to secure her own ballot position after gubernatorial candidate Kevin Kamenetz (D) passed away, former Montgomery County Councilwoman Valerie Ervin (D) announced yesterday that she will no longer campaign for Governor. Because Mr. Kamenetz died in the middle of the campaign and Ms. Ervin was his running mate, she had the option, which she exercised, of assuming the top position on the Kamenetz-Ervin ticket. But, state election authorities ruled that they would not change the ballots, meaning primary participants would still be instructed to vote for the late Mr. Kamenetz for the tallies to count for Ms. Ervin. Despite Ms. Ervin’s exit and endorsement for Prince Georges County Executive Rushern Baker (D), Mr. Kamenetz’s name will remain on the ballot.
--Jim Ellis The University of Baltimore, polling for the Baltimore Sun newspaper (5/29-6/6; 500 MD likely Democratic primary voters), finds a tie at the top of the Democratic gubernatorial contenders list. The fact that the candidates are locked in a dead heat is not particularly surprisingly, but the low number of committed voters as the campaigns begin the final drive toward the June 26th Maryland primary is unusual and might question the poll’s accuracy.
According to the Sun poll, former NAACP president Ben Jealous and Prince Georges County Executive Rushern Baker (D) are tied for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination with just 16% support apiece. No other candidate, including Valerie Ervin (D-Montgomery County) who took over the gubernatorial bid for the late Kevin Kamenetz when he suddenly passed away in early May, tops 5% support in this poll. --Jim Ellis As we have been reporting, gubernatorial candidate Valerie Ervin’s (D) has been fighting administrative rulings to keep her name off of the ballot. You will remember she was the running mate to gubernatorial candidate Kevin Kamenetz (D) who suddenly passed away on May 10th. As was her right as the designated running mate, Ms. Ervin, a former Montgomery County Councilwoman, assumed control of the gubernatorial campaign, but the Maryland State Board of Elections ruled that it is too late to re-print ballots. The only way ballots count for Ms. Ervin is if people continue to vote for the late Mr. Kamenetz.
Ms. Ervin twice challenged the ruling in court, losing both times. Yesterday, she abandoned her legal moves, and will attempt to convince her supporters to vote for Mr. Kamenetz. The Maryland primary is June 26th. The most recent poll suggests that former NAACP president Ben Jealous has assumed the primary lead. The eventual Democratic nominee with then challenge Gov. Larry Hogan (R). --Jim Ellis Gubernatorial candidate Valerie Ervin’s (D) legal saga continues. You will remember she was the running mate to gubernatorial candidate Kevin Kamenetz (D) who suddenly passed away on May 10th. As was her right as the designated running mate, Ms. Ervin, a former Montgomery County Councilwoman, assumed control of the gubernatorial campaign. Later, the Maryland State Board of Elections ruled that it was too late to re-print ballots and the only way ballots would count for Ms. Ervin is if people continue to vote for the late Mr. Kamenetz.
Ms. Ervin challenged the ruling in court asking for a ballot re-print to include her name, and has now lost twice, with the second ruling coming on Monday. She is now running out of time to change the system. Early voting begins June 14th for the June 26th primary election. The Board of Elections has agreed to allow signage in every polling place instructing voters who want to support Ms. Ervin that they must check Mr. Kamenetz’s name. Needless to say, this system damages Ms. Ervin’s chances of prevailing in the primary vote. The Washington Post sponsored a poll of the Democratic primary (5/29-6/3; 1,015 MD adults; 968 MD registered voters; 532 likely MD Democratic primary voters) and found former NAACP president Ben Jealous taking over the lead with 21%. Prince Georges County Executive Rushern Baker is second with 16%, followed by Ms. Ervin who commands 8% support. State Sen. Rich Madaleno (D-Montgomery County) attracted 6% preference. The Democratic winner faces Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in the fall. --Jim Ellis Valerie Ervin (D), who as his choice for Lt. Governor is replacing the late Kevin Kamenetz in the Maryland gubernatorial primary, lost a court decision late last week. She continues to oppose a State Board of Elections ruling that would require individuals to still vote for Mr. Kamenetz, who died on May 10th, in order for any tallies to count for her. Ms. Ervin, naturally, wants the ballots re-printed to include her name. Expecting to lose in the district court, the Ervin Campaign says the decision allows them to quickly appeal to a higher court where the candidate and her political leadership believe their chances of overturning the administrative ruling are better. The court decisions will have to be expedited because early voting begins on June 14th for the June 26th primary election.
--Jim Ellis |
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