Maine’s Colby College is out with their second poll of this year (7/18-24; 888 ME voters of which 89% describe themselves as definitely casting their ballot in November; combination of live and online interviews) finds state House Speaker Sara Gideon topping Sen. Susan Collins (R), 44-39%.
In actuality, the split is probably closer. The poll skews a bit liberal, and the sample size favors the 1st District, which is the more Democratic of the state’s two CDs. Even though Sen. Collins’ favorability is still upside down (41:52% favorable to unfavorable), the ratio is an improvement from Colby’s February poll, yet the ballot test leans more to Gideon. In February, Ms. Gideon led only 43-42%. Colby College (see Maine Senate above) also tested the 2nd Congressional District race now that former state Rep. Dale Crafts has officially won the Republican nomination. The 2nd District sample size, taken over the July 18-24 period is approximately 426 respondents via a combination of live and online interviews. The ballot test yields freshman Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) a 45-33% general election advantage. In February’s Colby College poll, Rep. Golden led a generic Republican, 43-29%.
After recent polling suggested that Sen. Susan Collins (R) had re-captured the lead in the competitive Maine Senate race, state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D), fresh from a big primary win in mid-July, is back on top. This, according to Public Policy Polling in their survey (7/22-23; 561 ME voters) that included negative push questions about employing federal agents to stop the Portland, OR protests. The PPP ballot test found Ms. Gideon leading 47-42%.
While the final victory declaration won’t be released for some time because former state Rep. Dale Crafts (R) only leads with a plurality, his Republican opponents are already pledging him their support.
Under Maine’s Ranked Choice Voting system, certain voters have an additional vote in determining an election winner. The idea is to ensure that a political victory is won with majority support. Therefore, voters rank their choices among the candidates. According to the reported numbers, last place finisher Eric Brakey, a former state legislator and 2018 US Senate nominee, received 11,581 votes. Now, election officials are locating the ballots that made Mr. Brakey their first choice. Since he is now eliminated, his voters’ second choice will be added to the totals for Mr. Crafts and second place finisher Adrienne Bennett. If a Survey USA poll is correct, 58% of Republican voters said they would not even rank their votes. If that number is anywhere near true, then there aren’t enough Brakey votes available to make the difference even if they all voted for Ms. Bennett. For her part, Ms. Bennett has virtually conceded the race saying she would fully commit to helping Crafts in the general election. Mr. Brakey said he could support Crafts if the latter man would work in Congress to help end the Afghanistan War, and the presumptive nominee told the media that he and Brakey are already having discussions about the topic. Upon his official nomination, Mr. Crafts will oppose freshman Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) in what looks to be a competitive contest. Former state Rep. Dale Crafts placed first in last night’s postponed Republican congressional primary in the Maine’s northern district with a 45-32-23% margin over former gubernatorial aide Adrienne Bennett and ex-state legislator and 2018 US Senate nominee Eric Brakey. The race, however, is not over.
Under Maine’s Ranked Choice Voting system, designed to determine a winner with majority support, voters ranked the candidates in preference order. Now, voters’ ballots are recovered that selected Mr. Brakey as the first choice. He finished last, meaning elimination. The people who picked him first now have their second choices counted, which will provide one of the candidates a majority. Since Mr. Crafts is so close to the 50% mark, it is highly likely that he will win the party nomination and challenge freshman Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) in the general election. This should be a close general election race, as President Trump is expected to win the 2nd District and take an extra electoral vote in one of the two states that split their national election votes. A new Survey USA poll for the Fair Vote organization, which supports Maine’s controversial instant runoff Ranked Choice Voting system, finds the 2nd District Republican contest turning into a strong three-way battle. According to S-USA (6/30; 7/6; 604 ME-2 likely Republican primary voters), former state Rep. Dale Crafts would lead realtor and ex-journalist Adrienne Bennett and former state Sen. Eric Brakey, 37-25-19%. Such a result would employ the Ranked Choice system to choose a winner once the last place candidate is eliminated and the new ranking occurs. We could once again this system produce a primary winner who did not attract the most votes.
Last week, we reported on a Moore Information survey (6/20-24; 600 ME registered voter telephone interviews) that found Sen. Susan Collins (R) leading state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport), 45-37%. Now, Public Policy Polling (7/2-3; 1,022 “voters” through interactive response devise) posts Gideon to a 46-42% lead. While phone interviews tend to be more accurate than automated responses, the cumulative effect of the two polls provide support for prognosticators who project this race as a toss-up campaign.
Primaries and runoffs are still on the political horizon, but July is a light electoral month. Tomorrow, the postponed New Jersey statewide primary will be held, and a new extensive mail voting procedure will be tested as all registered voters were sent a live ballot. The Delaware stand-alone presidential primary will also be conducted. The regular statewide Delaware primary is the latest in the nation, scheduled for September 15th. Stand-alone presidential primaries will also be held this month in Louisiana (7/11) and Puerto Rico (7/12).
July 14th hosts runoff elections in Alabama and Texas. The important US Senate Republican contest between retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville and ex-US Attorney General and former Senator Jeff Sessions will be finally be decided that day. Runoffs in the open 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts will also send contestants to the respective general elections in what should be safe Republican seats. The original Alabama runoff election date was March 31st. Texas holds a US Senate Democratic runoff and 15 House secondary elections postponed from May 26th. From the latter group, nine Republican contests and six Democratic electoral events will finally determine general election participants. The Texas and Alabama primaries were held all the way back on March 3rd. Maine holds its postponed primary also on July 14th. State House Speaker Sara Gideon is a heavy favorite to win the Democratic US Senate nomination to face incumbent Susan Collins (R). Three credible Republicans are vying for the opportunity of challenging freshman Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) in what is likely to be a competitive 2nd District general election campaign. Gov. Janet Mills (D) moved the Maine June 9th primary to July 14th, but it still appears that we will see a traditional primary election in the Pine Tree State. Gov. Mills said on Friday she has no plans to change the election format to all-mail. Secretary of State Matt Dunlap (D) indicated that the Governor would only have until June 14 to change her mind with regard to moving to all-mail, arguing the state’s county clerks would need a month to implement a universal postal system.
A new entry into the polling scene, Victory Geek, released a new Maine Senate survey (5/13-18; 512 ME registered voters via interactive response device; 100 person Democratic voter over-sample) that finds former state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D) opening up a larger lead over Sen. Susan Collins (R), 51-42%, while Democratic candidate Elizabeth Sweet only musters a one point edge. There is no question that Ms. Gideon will be the Democratic nominee, so the data pairing Ms. Sweet with Sen. Collins is largely irrelevant.
It’s difficult to analyze the viability of this poll since we have not previously seen Victory Geek’s work. While the population and political ratios look consistent with Maine population numbers and voting history, there is not enough past information from Victory Geek to determine their reliability factor. The idea that Sen. Collins is behind has become a recent pattern in recently released research, but whether such a trend holds for the long term remains to be seen. |
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