A new Gravis Marketing survey finds a major change developing in the Kentucky Governor’s race. First-term incumbent Republican Matt Bevin has been lagging in polling throughout the primary season, brandishing some of the worst job approval numbers of any Governor in the country.
Yesterday, however, Gravis Marketing (6/11-12; 741 KY registered voters) released Kentucky political data that suggests Mr. Bevin has already rebounded from his slow start. The Gravis results find Mr. Bevin holding a 48-42% lead over state Attorney General Andy Beshear, the candidate who prevailed for the Democratic nomination in a close race back on May 21st. Clearly, these are Gov. Bevin’s best numbers of the campaign cycle and suggests he may have turned the corner in his re-election campaign effort. The general election is scheduled for November 5th, so much time remains for both candidates to improve their standing. Toward the end of last week, sports radio program host Matt Jones confirmed that he is considering becoming a candidate against Senator Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and said he will make a final decision upon returning from a June vacation.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee leadership has been trying to convince 2018 congressional candidate and former Marine Corps combat helicopter pilot Amy McGrath to enter the race. She, too, has not yet committed to running. For his part, Mr. Jones says whether or not Ms. McGrath decides to run will not influence his own decision. In either case, Sen. McConnell will be rated as a clear favorite for re-election. Attorney General Andy Beshear won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination last night on the strength of his performance in the Louisville area and western Kentucky, which off-set his being blown out in the eastern part of the state. Mr. Beshear defeated state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins (D-Sandy Hook), and former state Auditor Adam Edelen, 38-32-28%.
Gov. Matt Bevin (R), who has been suffering from poor job approval ratings, won re-nomination with just over 52% of the vote, a very weak performance within his own party base. Like AG Beshear, Gov. Bevin was anemic in the eastern part of the state. Therefore, the region east of Frankfort and Lexington should be an interesting one since neither general election nominee performed well there. Former state Rep. C. Wesley Morgan, who won a central Kentucky state House seat in 2016 but then lost re-nomination in 2018, announced his Republican primary challenge to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. After his defeat, Mr. Morgan said he was leaving the Republican Party and endorsed the Democratic nominee for the general election, a candidate who lost by just 23 votes. Now, it appears, Mr. Morgan is returning to the GOP to launch a political suicide effort against Sen. McConnell who was first elected in 1984 and has risen to the Senate’s top position.
No major Democrat has yet filed to oppose the Majority Leader, but we can expect to see some action after the Kentucky Governor’s race comes to a close in November. Late last week we covered an Anzalone Liszt Grove poll (released 4/18; 500 KY likely Democratic primary voters) from former state Auditor Adam Edelen that gave Attorney General Andy Beshear a comfortable 43-23-22% lead over he and state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins (D-Sandy Hook).
Now, Mr. Beshear counters, releasing his own Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group survey (4/15-18; 601 KY likely Democratic gubernatorial primary voters) that finds him holding a similar, but stronger, 44-17-16% margin despite what the Beshear campaign claims is an Edelen 5:1 media expenditure advantage when including independent group spending. The Kentucky primary is May 21st. The winner then takes on Gov. Matt Bevin (R) in what will be a competitive 2019 general election. The May 21st Democratic gubernatorial primary is fast approaching, and former state Auditor Adam Edelen just released his campaign’s Anzalone Liszt Grove Research survey (released 4/18; 500 KY likely Democratic primary voters). It’s rather surprising that a candidate would release a poll showing him badly trailing the leader and only barely ahead of the third place contender, but that’s what Mr. Edelen has done. The move is designed to show momentum, but it is actually state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins (D-Sandy Rock) who has gained the most since the last public poll was released in mid-February.
According to the ALG poll, Attorney General Andy Beshear, son of former Governor Steve Beshear, leads the field with 43% of the vote. Mr. Edelen is second with 23%, and Mr. Adkins follows closely with 22%. It is clear that AG Beshear is the man to beat and even his opponent’s data suggests that his primary lead may be too much for any of his challengers to overcome. The winner will do battle with Gov. Matt Bevin (R) in what will be a competitive 2019 general election. The Garin Hart Yang Research firm recently tested Attorney General Andy Beshear in his battle for the Kentucky Democratic gubernatorial nomination. The survey (2/4-7; 603 KY likely Democratic primary voters) finds the one-term AG substantially leading his two Democratic Party rivals in anticipation of the state’s May 21st primary.
Against state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins (D-Sandy Hook) and former state Auditor Adam Edelen, Mr. Beshear takes a commanding 55-17-7% lead over his two opponents. Such is not particularly surprising because the Beshear name is well known to Kentucky Democratic primary voters. Mr. Beshear’s father, Steve Beshear, was the state’s Governor from 2007-2015. Perhaps the bigger surprise is how badly Mr. Edelen fares. A former statewide official being doubled up by an eastern KY state Representative does not bode well for his emerging campaign. Yesterday, we covered that Gov. Matt Bevin (R) has filed to run for re-election but chose a new running mate, state Sen. Ralph Alvarado (R-Winchester). With the 2019 candidate filing deadline occurring today, US Rep. James Comer (R-Tompkinsville), who lost the 2015 statewide Republican gubernatorial primary to Mr. Bevin by just 83 votes and had been openly contemplating running for Governor again, confirmed that he would not oppose Gov. Bevin this year.
Therefore, the Kentucky gubernatorial field appears set. Gov. Bevin will face state Rep. Robert Goforth (R-East Bernstadt) in the Republican primary while Attorney General Andy Beshear, former state Auditor Adam Edelen, and state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins (D-Sandy Hook) are the significant candidates doing battle for the Democratic nomination. The Kentucky primary is set for May 21st. The state does not utilize a run-off system. This year’s general election is scheduled for November 5th. Gov. Matt Bevin (R), working to overcome poor approval ratings as he heads into a 2019 re-election campaign, has now officially filed for re-election. Speculation was rampant that the Governor would not file even though he said publicly on several occasions that he would be a candidate.
As Gov. Bevin had indicated, the delay in filing was due to his consideration of changing running mates, a decision that he decided to make. Lt. Gov. Jenean Hampton will not be Gov. Bevin’s choice to continue in her current position should he win re-election. His new running mate is state Sen. Ralph Alvarado (R-Winchester). Now, attention turns to US Rep. James Comer (R-Tompkinsville). He has been considering again running for Governor but must decide by tomorrow’s candidate filing deadline. He originally said he would not oppose Gov. Bevin, but recent comments suggest that he is considering changing his mind. Mr. Comer, before his election to Congress, lost the 2015 statewide Republican gubernatorial primary to Mr. Bevin by just 83 votes. Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D), who attracted national political attention in her unsuccessful 2014 US Senate race against then-Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R), was another potential candidate said to be considering challenging Gov. Matt Bevin (R) later this year. Yesterday, Ms. Grimes said she will not become a candidate for Governor or any other office in 2019. She is ineligible to seek re-election to a third term as Secretary of State.
Currently in the Democratic field are Attorney General Andy Beshear, former state Auditor Adam Edelen, and state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins (D-Sandy Hook). Gov. Bevin, who has yet to file a re-election committee even though the candidate filing deadline is fast approaching on January 29th, has drawn GOP opposition from state Rep. Robert Goforth (R-East Bernstadt), while US Rep. James Comer (R-Tompkinsville) continues to drop hints that he may yet enter the race. In 2015, Mr. Comer, then the state Agriculture Commissioner, lost a bitter gubernatorial primary to Mr. Bevin by just 83 votes statewide. |
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