In November, businessman Sean Casten defeated veteran Rep. Peter Roskam (R) by a 54-46% margin. Late last week it was reported that GOP former state Sen. Karen McConnaughay is considering entering the 2020 race. Whether or not Ms. McConnaughay runs is clearly undecided, but individuals such as she analyzing their chances is a relatively clear indication that former Rep. Roskam will not be seeking a re-match.
Local Chicago suburban business owner and state Senator Jim Oberweis (R-North Aurora), who has lost four statewide and two congressional elections is making yet another electoral attempt, but his entrance into the 14th Congressional District race is already marred. Because, according to Sen. Oberweis, a staff member inadvertently checked the wrong box on the federal political committee form, the legal race for which he filed was the US Senate; in other words, to challenge Sen. Dick Durbin (D).
The Oberweis campaign quickly reversed course after discovering the mistake and correctly filed a FEC committee to challenge freshman Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville). Expect other Republican candidates to join the field. The party leaders are wary of Mr. Oberweis’ past losing record and desire another, fresher and presumably more electable 2020 nominee. In a strong March 2018 Democratic primary challenge, media consultant Marie Newman came within two percentage points of denying veteran Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs/Chicago Suburbs) re-nomination. According to a public statement made yesterday, it appears highly likely that Ms. Newman will return for a re-match with the eight-term Congressman early next year.
Many believed Mr. Lipinski did not respond to the 2018 challenge quickly enough, thus partially explaining the close margin. It is clear that he will not repeat this mistake in 2020. Still, with strength for Newman coming from the party’s leftward faction, centrist Democrat Lipinski, who draws significant business organization support including that of BIPAC, will again find himself embroiled in a competitive primary campaign. State Representative-Elect Anne Stava-Murray (D), who will be sworn into office next week after unseating Republican state Rep. David Olsen, 51-49% in her western Chicago suburban district, has already announced plans to challenge US Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) in the 2020 statewide Democratic primary.
Ms. Stava-Murray ran as an anti-establishment, anti-political machine opponent to Democratic state House Speaker Mike Madigan, so we can expect the same type of outsider attacks to be launched against Sen. Durbin. Her chances of denying the four-term Senate leader re-nomination are slim at best, however. Gubernatorial challenger J.B. Pritzker (D) has been leading Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) by large margins and the latest poll, now within a month of the election, is no exception. From Victory Research (9/27-10/2; 1,208 IL likely voters), Mr. Pritzker has opened a 47-32% lead over Gov. Rauner, which is consistent with other polling. Clearly, Illinois is the Democrats’ most favorable gubernatorial conversion opportunity in the nation. Republican strategists fear that an unfavorable turnout model could result in a Democratic sweep in the Land of Lincoln and possibly cost the GOP several US House seats.
Recently, an independent committee began raising money to promote Cook County Commissioner Jesus “Chuy” Garcia for Mayor of Chicago, now that incumbent Rahm Emanuel (D) has announced his retirement. Mr. Garcia was not dissuading the group from continuing, suggesting that he might make another run for the office even though he is about to be elected to Congress.
In March, Mr. Garcia won the open 4th District congressional primary and is a lock to win the general election. Now saying that he will represent the people who are about to elect him to the US House, Mr. Garcia announced he will not become a mayoral candidate in 2019. Two days ago, we reported that Cook County Commissioner Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D), despite preparing to win a congressional seat for the first time, is already looking toward running to succeed retiring Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel (D). Yesterday, another member of the Chicago congressional delegation made a declaration about the Mayor’s race. Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Chicago), first elected in a 2009 special election, said that he will not enter the 2019 open Mayor’s race, choosing instead, presumably, to remain in the US House.
Cook County Commissioner Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D) is a lock to replace retiring Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Chicago) with a certain November election victory, but he already may be planning a new campaign for another office. With Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel (D) announcing that he will not seek re-election, a major open local race will get underway as soon as the current general election concludes.
While Cook County Commission President Toni Preckwinkle (D) and former Commerce Secretary Bill Daley (D) are already in the race, a mayoral fundraising committee was just launched for Congressman-to-be Garcia. Though the organization is not directly tied to Mr. Garcia, he is not dissuading them from continuing. In 2015, Garcia lost to Mayor Emanuel, 56-44%. Regular Illinois pollster Victory Research went into the field again (8/12-14; 1,208 IL likely general election voters via live phone interview) and found Democratic challenger J.B. Pritzker still leading Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) by a double-digit margin, but the incumbent is making some gains. The new data finds Mr. Pritzker holding a 41-30% advantage, an 11-point margin. This is somewhat improved from the 15 point margin Victory detected in late June.
Gov. Rauner is performing better with his own party after his scant 51% re-nomination victory back in March. While he still is only getting 71% of Republicans, the GOP bleed toward Pritzker is less than 5%. Rauner’s biggest problem is among self-described moderates, a group he is losing by 20 percentage points according to the Victory crosstabs. Illinois voters aren’t very happy. A new Illinois Public Opinion, Inc. small-sample poll (7/12; 423 IL likely general election voters; via automated response device) gives both gubernatorial candidates and President Trump poor approval ratings. Doing the worst is Gov. Bruce Rauner (R), who records a terrible 27:62% favorability index. But, his Democratic opponent, venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker, posts a 29:44% ratio. President Trump’s index is 38:55%. With that background, Mr. Pritzker leads Gov. Rauner on the ballot test, 39-26%. He is favored to unseat the first-term incumbent in November.
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