Effective yesterday, six-term Georgia Rep. Tom Graves (R-Ranger/Rome) officially resigned from the House. Mr. Graves said that his congressional work is complete, and he will not waste taxpayers’ money in paying him to do nothing more. A year ago, Rep. Graves announced that he would not seek re-election in the current election cycle.
With little time remaining in the session, no special election will be called to fill the balance of the current term. Without a Democratic nominee on the general election ballot since Kevin Van Ausdal withdrew from the congressional race after the ballot confirmation deadline, Republican nominee Marjorie Taylor Greene is sure to win in November and succeed Rep. Graves despite controversies surrounding her. The first round of the special election series to replace the late Rep. John Lewis (D-Atlanta) was held, and the result forces a runoff election on December 1st for a term that will last possibly less than one month. Former Atlanta City Councilman Kwanza Hall placed first with 32% of the vote, and he advances to the secondary election while former Morehouse College president Robert Franklin placed second with 28%, ahead of state Rep. Mable Thomas’ (D-Atlanta) 19 percent.
The Democratic nominee for the general election, and person who will assume the seat in the next Congress, state Sen. Nikema Williams (D-Atlanta), did not enter the special election. Therefore, the eventual December victor will serve one of the shortest terms in history. Democratic endorsements, including from former President Jimmy Carter and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, have been piling up for Baptist pastor Raphael Warnock in an effort to propel him into what appears to be a sure January run-off election from the November 3rd jungle primary. Now, polling suggests that the strategy is paying off as two new Georgia Senate polls find him leading the field.
The Civiqs polling organization, surveying for the Daily Kos Elections website (9/26-29; 959 GA likely voters; online) gives Rev. Warnock a 38-25-21% lead over Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville) and appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R), respectively. Businessman Matt Lieberman (D), who had been competitive in polling until now, drops to 5% support. While Warnock leads the race, he trails the combined Republican figure by eight percentage points. Quinnipiac University (9/23-27; 1,125 GA likely voters; live interview) sees a similar candidate division. Their numbers find Rev. Warnock’s lead to be 31-23-22% over Sen. Loeffler and Rep. Collins with Mr. Lieberman polling a 9% preference. A pair of new surveys in the Georgia special Senate election race find a three-way race evolving for the two positions available for the January 5th runoff election. It appears no chance exists for any candidate to attract majority support on November 3rd, meaning a secondary election will be required.
Siena College/New York Times and Data for Progress went into the field almost simultaneously and both found appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R), Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville), and Baptist pastor Raphael Warnock (D) all within range to capture either first or second position in the jungle primary that will be held concurrently with Election Day. Siena/NYT (9/16-21; 523 GA likely voters; live interview) projects Sen. Loeffler pulling 23% support, with both Rep. Collins and Rev. Warnock posting identical 19% support factors. Data for Progress (9/14-19; 800 GA likely voters) sees Rev. Warnock in first place with 26%, followed closely by Rep. Collins (22%) and Sen. Loeffler (21%). Leaners were added to the original totals for all candidates. Together, the polls tell us that no one can reach 50% on the first vote, and that a tough political dogfight is brewing for the two runoff positions. Atlanta businessman Matt Lieberman, son of former Connecticut Senator and 2000 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Joe Lieberman, released his HarrisX poll that was conducted at the end of August (8/20-30; 1,616 GA registered voters).
Mr. Lieberman’s point in releasing the findings was to show that he was only three percentage points behind Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee endorsed opponent Rev. Raphael Warnock, 16-13%, in the jungle primary survey. The data also showed, however, that neither would qualify for the January 5th runoff election as Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) and Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville) would be the two who advance at 26 and 21%, respectively. Kevin Van Ausdal, the Democratic nominee in the open northwest Georgia congressional district, announced the end of his campaign over the weekend. Mr. Van Ausdal was served divorce papers on Friday demanding that he vacate his home. He said he plans to move to a family property in Indiana. Under Georgia election law, the Democrats will not be able to replace Mr. Van Ausdal on the ballot because the withdrawal is coming within 60 days of the election. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) indicated that the candidate can legally withdraw, but there is no means for a replacement nominee to be named within the final two months. It appears launching a write-in campaign is the Democrats’ only option.
Republican nominee Marjorie Taylor Greene is now virtually assured of victory in November. She has been under attack throughout the election cycle mostly for her association with the highly controversial QAnon conspiracy theory, but a Democrat winning this 75% Trump district was not viewed as a viable possibility. In an unrelated development, retiring Rep. Tom Graves (R-Ranger/Rome) announced that he is going to resign the office in October. This could trigger a special election in order to fill the final few days of the current term. Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) yesterday announced her endorsement of Rev. Raphael Warnock for the US Senate special election. This now means that all four Democratic House members comprising the Georgia delegation have publicly embraced Rev. Warnock over Atlanta businessman Matt Lieberman and ex-US Attorney Ed Tarver.
The Georgia special election will be conducted in a jungle primary format. If one candidate receives majority support, such person is elected outright to fill the balance of resigned Sen. Johnny Isakson’s unexpired term. If no one secures a majority, the top two finishers, regardless of political party identification, will advance to a January 5, 2021 runoff election. The top Republicans are appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler and US Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville). Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research confirms in their new GA-6 poll (8/11-16; 401 GA-6 likely voters) for the suburban district lying wholly within the Atlanta metropolitan region, that the re-match between freshman Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) and former Rep. Karen Handel (R) is again in the toss-up realm. The GQR results find Rep. McBath holding a tight 50-47% edge over Ms. Handel. In 2018, the actual election totals found Ms. McBath winning with only the slightest 50.5 – 49.5% margin. It appears more than likely that will we see another razor-thin result in the coming re-match.
Democratic pollster Garin Hart Young Research released a Georgia US Senate survey (8/10-13; 601 GA likely voters) and found Democratic nominee Jon Ossoff holding a 48-46% edge over first-term Sen. David Perdue (R). Around the same time, another Democratic polling firm, Public Policy Polling (8/13-14; 530 GA voters) tested the Georgia electorate and found the candidates tied at 44% apiece. Just before that, media pollster Survey USA (8/6-8; 623 GA likely voters) went into the field and projected Sen. Perdue to be holding a three-point lead, 44-41%. It is evident from these different polls all conducted loosely within the same time frame, that the Georgia regular election Senate campaign is trending toward the toss-up realm.
Controversial businesswoman Margorie Taylor Greene easily won her Republican runoff election last night with a 57-43% victory margin over Rome area surgeon John Cowan. Ms. Greene is associated with the QAnon movement whose affiliates believe a “deep state bureaucratic underground” is attempting to undermine President Trump. Since the 14th District is strongly conservative, Ms. Greene is a heavy favorite to win in November and replace retiring Rep. Tom Graves (R-Ranger/Rome).
In the northeast Georgia 9th District, retired Navy officer and firearm company owner Andrew Clyde, who self-funded most of his campaign, defeated state Rep. Matt Gurtler (R-Tiger), 56-44%, to claim the Republican nomination. Mr. Clyde advances into a general election where he becomes the heavy favorite to succeed Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville) who is running for the Senate. |
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