The special election to replace resigned Rep. Katie Hill (D) was held on Super Tuesday, March 3rd, but questions were being posed as to what Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) might do with the May 12th special general election in reference to COVID-19 virus precautions. Other states with elections on that date have already postponed their vote. Mr. Newsom, on the other hand, has decided that all CA-25 registered voters would receive a mail ballot and a small number of polling places will be operational for those who want to vote in person.
Therefore, the May 12th special election between state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D-Newhall) and retired Navy fighter pilot Mike Garcia (R) will still have an election on that date. Under the California verification and tabulation process, however, the final result won’t be known for several days after the last ballots are received on the Friday of election week, which in this case is May 15th. Gov. Newsom’s procedural decision makes sense because at least two-thirds of California voters typically vote by mail. Therefore, this system won’t be much different than a normal Golden State election. The special election between Ms. Smith and Mr. Garcia looks to be heading toward a close finish. With still approximately a half-million votes remaining to be counted in California’s laborious post-election verification and tabulation system, two more congressional district finalists have been declared.
In Orange County’s 45th District, freshman Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) will officially face Mission Viejo City Councilman Greg Raths (R) in what promises to be a competitive race. In San Diego County’s 53rd CD, a double-Democrat general election will occur to replace retiring Rep. Susan Davis (D-San Diego). It has been determined that San Diego City Council President Georgette Gomez (D) has clinched the second general election ballot position, and she and former State Department official Sara Jacobs (D) will vie for the seat in November. With over 185,000 votes now recorded in the 50th District jungle primary, former US Congressman Darrell Issa (R) has officially secured a ballot position for the November campaign. Yesterday, third place finisher Carl DeMaio, a former San Diego City Councilman, radio talk show host, and ex-congressional and mayoral candidate, conceded second place to Issa, understanding that he could not close the vote gap between he and the former nine-term House member.
Mr. Issa now becomes the favorite to win the general election against 2018 nominee and first place finisher this year, communications consultant Ammar Campa-Najjar (D). The 50th is one of the few strongly Republican districts remaining in California, so whichever Republican candidate qualified for the November ballot would quickly assume the inside track toward victory. President Trump carried this district 55-40% in 2016, and resigned Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine/San Diego County) won re-election in 2018 against Campa-Najjar even when facing a federal indictment. While not all the ballots have been counted in California’s Central Valley 16th District, it is now clear that Rep. Jim Costa (D-Fresno) has qualified for the general election placing second behind Republican realtor Kevin Cockingham but ahead of his more serious challenger, Fresno City Councilwoman Esmeralda Soria (D). A double-Democrat general election might have spelled trouble for Rep. Costa, but against a Republican he should again sail to re-election.
With over 100,000 votes now counted in the 25th District congressional primary, former Rep. Steve Knight (R), who was consistently in third position in the counting both for the special election and regular primary, has conceded defeat even though vote tabulation continues.
The decision means that defense contractor and Iraq War veteran Mike Garcia (R) will challenge Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D-Newhall) in both the May 12th special and the November general election. The 25th began the decade as a Republican seat, represented by former Rep. Buck McKeon (R) and then Mr. Knight, but it has now moved toward the Democrats. Non-profit executive Katie Hill converted this seat for the Democrats in 2018 but resigned a year later because of a sexual scandal. The special election will be competitive, but Ms. Smith must be considered the favorite. According to the California Secretary of State, more than 780,000 ballots throughout the state’s 58 counties remain to be counted with more coming into election offices. Under California election law, voters may postmark their ballots on Election Day and be counted when they reach the intended office within three days of the vote. This election’s deadline is close of business tomorrow, March 6th. Therefore, it is probable that more than one million ballots will comprise the universe when the post-election counting period begins.
At this point, 32 of the state’s 53 congressional races do not officially have their two general election qualifiers. Under the California system, the top two candidates advance to the general election irrespective of political party affiliation or percentage of the vote obtained. We can expect the post-election counting process to take days, and likely several weeks before all of the totals become official. With literally millions of early votes still to count in California and thousands remaining outstanding in Texas, totals are far from official and many races are left uncalled. Reports will become finalized once a sufficient number of votes in all the affected seats are tabulated and publicized.
The latest California Democratic presidential polls find Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) pulling away from his opponents, but is it too late? According to Point Blank Strategies (2/23-25; 2,098 CA registered voters), Sen. Sanders posts a 34-13-11-11% lead over Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and ex-Vice President Joe Biden in the battle for the large 415 member delegate contingent to the Democratic National Convention. YouGov, in their latest CA survey (2/23-25; 584 CA likely Democratic primary voters) projects Sanders leading Biden, 30-20%.
While the results might be in the realm of accuracy, the polls did not take into account the 1.3 million voters who have already cast their ballots under California’s early voting law. Regardless of the late polling results, it is fair to suggest that multiple candidates will qualify for delegate allocation in the Golden State, thus limiting the large delegation’s influence. Survey USA, for KGTV television and the San Diego Union Tribune (2/20-23; 606 CA-50 registered voters), finds former US Rep. Darrell Issa (R) putting some distance between he and third place poll finisher Carl DeMaio (R), a former San Diego City Councilman. According to S-USA, Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar leads the jungle primary with 35% of the vote, while Mr. Issa captures 21 percent. Regardless of party affiliation and primary percentage, the top two finishers advance into the general election. Within this polling sample, Mr. DeMaio records 15% support.
Despite Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) resigning this seat, there will be no special election, so the jungle primary candidates are in the regular election cycle campaign. This means the post-March 3rd vote will occur on November 3rd. Even in this poll, the aggregate Republican vote has the advantage over the combined Democratic number (45-40%) in what is viewed as one of the few safely Republican seats in California. Still, Mr. Campa-Najjar leads the field by a large margin. Survey USA for the San Diego Union Tribune newspaper ran a poll of the open 53rd Congressional District (2/6-8; 513 CA-53 likely jungle primary voters), fully contained within San Diego County, and finds former State Department official Sara Jacobs (D) opening a wide lead before the March 3rd jungle primary. San Diego City Council President Georgette Gomez (D), originally thought to be the favorite to replace retiring Rep. Susan Davis (D-San Diego), badly trails with just 5% preference.
Ms. Jacobs holds a 23-10% lead over Republican Chris Stoddard and they look to be the two advancing into the general election from field of 14 candidates who will appear on the March 3rd ballot. Under California law, like those in Louisiana and Washington, all candidates are placed on the same primary ballot with the top two, regardless of percentage and party affiliation, advancing to the general election. The 53rd is a safely Democratic seat. |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|