Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove/Sacramento) was thought to have one of the safest Republican seats in California. A new poll and the financial disclosure report suggest this race is competitive, however. Lake Research Partners (10/12-14; 948 CA-4 likely and early voters; interactive voice response system) released their latest northern California congressional survey and finds Rep. McClintock holding only a 49-45% lead over software executive Brynne Kennedy (D). The challenger has also outraised the incumbent, $2.1 million to $1.85 million in total election cycle receipts. Rep. McClintock is still the favorite, but this is yet one more House race to watch.
Some believed when freshman California Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) defeated state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D-Newhall) by a ten- percentage point margin in the May 2020 special election with a high turnout, that the seat had returned to its Republican roots. A new Breakthrough Campaigns survey for the Smith campaign (10/3-6; 644 CA-25 likely voters; combination live interview; SMS texting; online) finds the Assemblywoman leading Rep. Garcia, 49-47%. A Normington Petts survey in mid-September also found Smith ahead, 51-45%, after leaners were added to both candidates’ totals.
Polls are plentiful this time of year, and surprise races pop up near an election that look closer than expected. Sometimes such polling is a harbinger of a budding upset, and other times the more established candidate returns to a normal voting result. In the past few days, we’ve seen three examples of such contests.
Alaska at-large Rep. Don Young (R-Ft. Yukon), who defeated education activist Alyse Galvin (I/D), 53-46% in 2018, again sees a close poll heading into the election period just like in the previous campaign. Alaska Survey Research (9/25-10/4; 676 AK likely voters), that finds Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) improving his prospects against physician Al Gross (I/D) with a 48-44% count, sees Rep. Young, the Dean of the House who was originally elected in a 1973 special election, trailing Ms. Galvin, 46-48%. In California, where political money has been flying in the Central Valley, veteran Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Tulare/Fresno) won a 53-47% re-election in 2018 in a race where a combined $20 million was spent just from the two candidate committees. An early October poll from Strategies 360 (9/29-10/1; 400 CA-22 likely voters) finds Rep. Nunes leading Democratic financial advisor Phil Arballo by only a 51-46% margin in what, so far, has been a less intense campaign. In May, California freshman Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) scored an impressive ten-point special election upset victory over state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D). A new poll suggests a much different regular election result, however. According to the Democratic firm, Normington Petts for the House Majority PAC (9/21-23; 400 CA-25 likely voters; live interview), Ms. Smith would lead the new Congressman, 48-45%, and 51-45% when those leaning to each candidate are added to the totals.
Republican pollster American Viewpoint returned a survey in California’s 21st District, a seat that encompasses parts of the cities of Fresno and Bakersfield (9/8-10; 400 CA-21 likely voters; live interview), and sees former US Rep. David Valadao (R) leading freshman Rep. T.J. Cox (D-Fresno) by a 49-38% margin. In 2018, Rep. Cox unseated Mr. Valadao by an 862-vote margin. The Republican appears to be in strong shape for the general election even though President Trump will lose this district.
California’s 50th District is regarded as a Republican district, but the new Survey USA open seat poll finds a tight race between former US Rep. Darrell Issa (R) and 2018 congressional candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar (D), a media consultant. The S-USA data (9/4-7; 508 CA-50 likely voters) projects Mr. Issa leading only by one percentage point, 46-45%, and detects a severe gender gap. Men break for Mr. Issa, 56-35%, while women support Mr. Campa-Najjar in a similar 54-36% clip.
California Rep. Paul Cook (R-Yucca Valley) is leaving his congressional position to assume a seat on the San Bernardino Board of Supervisors, a post he won outright in the district-wide non-partisan primary election held in March. The 8th CD, that stretches from San Bernardino all the way up the eastern California border beyond Yosemite National Park and almost to Lake Tahoe, is one of the few Republican domains in the state. In the general election, state Assemblyman Jay Obernolte (R-Hesperia) faces Democrat Chris Bubser, an engineer and biotech consultant from Mammoth Lakes.
Democratic pollster Global Strategy Group just released an earlier survey of the Obernolte-Busber race (8/1-5; 400 CA-8 likely general election voters) and found the GOP Assemblyman holding a ten-point, 48-38% advantage. In 2016, President Trump carried the district, 55-40%. In his four congressional elections, Rep. Cook averaged 61.8% of the general election vote. Ending months of speculation, former Vice President Joe Biden announced that he has chosen California Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate for the 2020 presidential election. Mr. Biden pledged to choose a woman as his Vice Presidential partner and fulfilled his commitment with Sen. Harris. As time progressed, the pressure became intense for him to choose a woman of color, which he also now has done. It remains to be seen, however, if she can deliver key votes in the swing states. During her presidential run, which ended even before the Iowa Caucus was held, Sen. Harris averaged only 5.4% in 94 publicly released polls from June until her exit day in the ten states most likely to be determinative in the general election.
California Freshman Rep. Gil Cisneros (D-Yorba Linda) defeated former state Assemblywoman Young Kim (R) in 2018, relying on ballots arriving after the election to score a 52-48% victory. A new Public Opinion Strategies poll (7/27-30; 400 CA-39 likely voters) finds Rep. Cisneros leading Ms. Kim, 47-45%. The 2020 version of the Cisneros-Kim match-up appears just as competitive as their 2018 contest. In addition to tight polling, both candidates are showing cash-on-hand figures of approximately $1.6 million in their campaign accounts. The 39th has a Republican history, but Hillary Clinton scored a 51-43% victory here in 2016 as a precursor to Rep. Cisneros’ 2018 win.
Special election winner Mike Garcia (R-CA) appears in strong position for the regular 2020 election, too. The latest American Viewpoint survey (7/26-28; 400 CA-25 likely voters) finds the new Congressman leading his Democratic opponent, Assemblywoman Christie Smith whom he defeated with a ten-point margin in May, by seven points, 48-41%.
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