Former Congressman Jack Kingston, who lost a close 2014 US Senate Republican primary to current Sen. David Perdue, had been among those who applied for the US Senate appointment. Before Gov. Brian Kemp (R) chose businesswoman Kelly Loeffler (R) to replace the resigning Sen. Johnny Isakson (R), Mr. Kingston indicated that he may run for the seat if he were not appointed. Yesterday, however, Mr. Kingston took himself out of the Senate jungle special election primary by endorsing Ms. Loeffler. Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville), however, is still a potential GOP candidate against the new Senator-designate.
Saying she wants to devote her political time to helping President Trump win a second term, daughter-in-law Lara Trump said yesterday that she will not enter the Republican primary to succeed retiring Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford) on Long Island’s 2nd District. Both state Assemblymen Anthony Garbarino (R-Bayport) and Mike LiPetri (R-Massapequa) are announced GOP candidates, however. Babylon Town Councilwoman Jackie Gordon appears to be the leading Democrat in the large candidate field. We expect a competitive general election to develop in this open district.
CNN, with their SSRS survey research partners, conducted Democratic presidential primary polls in the two big states of California (416 first ballot delegates) and Texas (228 delegates). The California poll was taken during the December 4-8 period and sampled 508 likely Democratic primary voters. The questioning process for the Texas poll went one extra day, until December 9th, and surveyed a small group of only 327 likely Democratic primary voters.
In California, we see a four-way race continuing to unfold, as former Vice President Joe Biden led Sen. Bernie Sanders by just a 21-20% count, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren closely trailing with 17% support, which is a virtual three-way tie. Here, Mayor Pete Buttigieg attracts only 9% support, while businessman Andrew Yang surprisingly increases to 6%. In Texas, Mr. Biden has opened up a clear lead, topping Sanders and Warren 35-15-13%, with Buttigieg again getting 9% preference, and only Michael Bloomberg reaching the 5% plateau. For the first time, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg has been projected in first place in New Hampshire. The MassInc survey for Boston public radio WBUR (12/3-8; 442 NH likely Democratic primary voters) finds Mayor Buttigieg taking a very slight 18-17-15-12% lead over former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren. In effect, we see a four-way race building in the Granite State, with a large undecided factor. The New Hampshire primary is in two months, scheduled for February 11th.
When north Florida GOP candidate Ted Yoho was first running for Congress in 2012, he made a pledge to serve only eight years if elected. Yesterday, on a local radio program, Rep. Yoho announced that he is keeping his pledge and will not seek re-election next year. His move means that now 37 US House seats are open for their next election, 26 currently in the Republican column.
Florida’s 3rd District, anchored in the city of Gainesville, is safely Republican with Rep. Yoho averaging just over 57% of the vote in his two elections within this current district configuration. Republican presidential nominees Donald Trump, Mitt Romney, and John McCain all finished between 54.6 and 56.6% of the vote illustrating very consistent voting patterns. Therefore, the eventual August 25th Republican primary winner will have the inside track toward clinching the general election. Former Attorney General and ex-Alabama US Senator Jeff Sessions (R) just released data from his internal OnMessage survey (12/3-5; 700 AL likely Republican primary voters; live interview). The ballot test results find Mr. Sessions placing first with 44% followed by former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville who records 21% support. Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile) has 14%, with former state Supreme Court Chief Judge and 2017 US Senate nominee Roy Moore attracting only 7%. State Rep. Arnold Mooney (R-Shelby County) gets just 1% in this survey.
If no candidate receives majority support in the March 3rd primary, the top two will advance to an April 14th run-off election. Most all recent polling has found that a Sessions/Tuberville run-off is the most likely primary outcome. Monmouth University just released their latest survey, and because the national Democratic primary sample is only 384 individuals, the ballot test is not worth examining. The overall study, however, taken during the 12/4-8 period of 903 adults, brings us interesting information on the candidates’ favorability index. Of particular note is the overall negative ratings the contenders are receiving.
While still upside down, President Trump scores better than in many polls: 46:52% positive to negative. All of the Democratic candidates are viewed more negatively than positively within the entire sampling group, however. The worst score goes to former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg: 26:54%, suggesting his early media blitz is not working. The other ratios are: Joe Biden, 43:50%; Sen. Bernie Sanders, 41:54%; Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 40:50%; Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 34:35%; businessman Andrew Yang, 25:28%. The new national Q-Poll is public (12/4-9; 665 US likely Democratic primary voters) and though the sample size is smaller than their typical surveys, the results appear consistent with most other available data. Quinnipiac finds former Vice President Joe Biden leading with 29% and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) following with 17%.
Most national polls are now showing Mr. Biden returning to his pre-debate levels, and now Sen. Sanders taking second place as opposed to Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). Here, Sen. Warren secures 15% with Mayor Pete Buttigieg posting 9%, Ex-New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg at 5%, and businessman Andrew Yang recording 4% support. All other minor candidates follow. Non-profit executive Pierce Bush, the grandson of former President George W. Bush, announced that he will join the huge field of Texas Republican candidates seeking the open congressional seat located south of Houston from which current Rep. Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land) is retiring. With the candidate filing deadline expiring last night, as many as 17 Republicans could well have filed with the Texas Republican Party to run for the seat.
The top tier candidates so far include businesswoman Kathaleen Wall and Ft. Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls. Sri Preston Kulkarni, the 2018 Democratic nominee who captured 46% of the vote against Rep. Olson, is the odds-on favorite to win his party’s nomination. The Texas primary is March 3rd. The Republicans are assured of being forced to a run-off election on May 26th since it is a virtual certainty that no candidate will capture a majority of the primary vote. Former Congressman Scott Taylor (R), who held the Virginia Beach anchored 2nd District for one term before current Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Virginia Beach) unseated him in 2018, is reportedly ending his Senate bid against incumbent Mark Warner (D) and will instead enter the House campaign to seek a re-match with Ms. Luria. The Democratic incumbent will again be favored in a changing district that is moving more toward the Democrats. Rep. Luria won the 2018 election with a tight 51-49% victory margin.
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