Rep. Dean Phillips: Apparently Will Challenge President Biden: The Wall Street Journal is reporting that three-term Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips (D-Plymouth) is reportedly prepared to file to enter the New Hampshire Democratic primary this week to challenge President Biden. Rep. Phillips has been calling for other Democrats to oppose the President for the party nomination, and now he is prepared to take up the mantel. Conversely, Mr. Biden’s campaign announced that the President will not participate in the New Hampshire primary saying that he will “follow the rules” that he proposed to the Democratic National Committee that changes the progression of pre-Super Tuesday states.
It is likely we will see Biden’s New Hampshire supporters initiate a write-in effort for the President, but Rep. Phillips could still be positioned to win the state in a primary that has yet to be scheduled. The only two reasonable dates available that would keep the state as the first-in-the-nation primary is January 23rd because state law dictates that their primary not only be first, but also a week before any other. OR-5: Dem Governor Endorses a New Candidate: Gov. Tina Kotek (D) this week announced her endorsement of state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Happy Valley) in the 5th Congressional District Republican primary, thus eschewing 2022 Democratic nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner who received 49% of the vote against now freshman Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley).
Going into the general election, Ms. McLeod-Skinner was tabbed as the favorite to retain the seat for the party after she upset then-Rep. Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary. Therefore, her performance against Ms. Chavez-DeRemer was deemed an under-performance. This explains why the Democratic leadership would be looking to change nominees for the 2024 election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+3. President Biden carried the seat 53-44%. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks OR-5 as the ninth most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Kentucky: Conflicting Polls: As we draw closer to the November 7th gubernatorial election in Kentucky, recent polling shows a major difference regarding the size of Gov. Andy Beshear’s (D) lead over Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R).
The co/efficient survey research firm polling for the Bluegrass Freedom Action Fund (10/18-19; 1,845 KY likely general election voters; live interview & text) found Gov. Beshear’s lead dissipating. According to this survey, the ballot test has closed to 47-45%. Garin-Hart-Yang Research, however, conducted an internal survey for the Beshear campaign several days earlier and found a different result. The poll (10/14-16; 741 KY likely general election voters; live interview & text) sees Gov. Beshear holding a 52-44% advantage. The Kentucky election is scheduled for November 7th. This election, and the Governor’s contest in Mississippi, could become precursors for next year’s regular election if the voters follow the Louisiana lead. The October 14th gubernatorial election in the latter state opened eyes when Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry scored an upset outright win on October 14th. Polling consistently showed Mr. Landry leading, but with a percentage much lower than his final showing. Democrat Shawn Wilson finished well below his research projections. Gov. Beshear is favored to win re-election, but if co/efficient is correct, this race could be headed for a photo finish. Mississippi: Presley Gaining Ground: Democrats are releasing a new Public Policy Polling internal survey (10/19-20; 601 MS likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) that finds their nominee, Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, who is a second cousin to the late Elvis Presley, pulling to within one point of Gov. Tate Reeves (R), 46-45%. Again, the turnout and voter swing dynamics that we saw in Louisiana might also play a role here. If so, we could be seeing a positive Republican trend. If not, then the Louisiana results would be considered an outlier. Additionally, the 2019 featuring then-Lt. Governor Reeves and then-Attorney General Jim Hood (D), produced similarly close polling within the last month of the campaign. In the end, Mr. Reeves posted a 52-47% victory. Independent Gwendolyn Gray is also on the ballot. She could be significant in a close race between the major party contenders by keeping the leader under 50 percent. If no one receives majority support, a secondary runoff election will be held on November 28th. Alaska: First Poll with Kennedy: The Alaska Survey Research firm tested the 2024 general election with, for the first time, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. on the questionnaire as an Independent candidate. Some have been saying that Kennedy on the ballot could force former President Donald Trump below 50%, which would jump-start a Ranked Choice Voting round. This could open the door to President Biden winning Alaska even though he would be nowhere close to victory in the initial vote.
According to the ASR data (10/13-18; 1,375 AK likely general election voters; online) Mr. Trump is leading the field but with just 37% support. President Biden follows with 29%, while Mr. Kennedy draws 17%. In an initial test without Kennedy, Mr. Trump would lead President Biden 45-37%. Therefore, both candidates would yield 8% support to Mr. Kennedy. The key here for Trump is making sure he does not fall below the 50% threshold and this poll suggests he would be in danger of doing so if Kennedy continues to remain relatively strong. Maryland: Gov. Moore Endorses Senate Candidate: Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) yesterday involved himself in what promises to be a hotly contested open Democratic primary to replace retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D). Maryland’s voting history suggests that Sen. Cardin’s successor will be found in the Democratic primary as Republicans will have little chance to win a Maryland statewide race in a presidential election year.
Gov. Moore announced that he is supporting Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks for the party nomination. Her chief opponent is US Representative and Total Beverage chain founder David Trone (D-Potomac). The Moore endorsement is a signal to the African American community, the base of the state’s Democratic Party, that they should unite behind Ms. Alsobrooks. Maryland’s black population accounts for just under 32% of the state’s residents. In a Democratic primary, however, their size is significantly larger. Rep. Trone has already put just under $10 million of his own money into his campaign account and is currently advertising in targeted markets. According to Mr. Trone’s latest campaign finance report, 98% of his money comes from himself. NJ-7: Ex-Rep. Malinowski Responds: Former two-term US Representative Tom Malinowski (D) responded to a statewide op-ed piece asking him to challenge the man who unseated him in 2022, freshman US Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield).
While Mr. Malinowski has not publicly ruled out running again, his response to the piece suggests that he will not become a candidate. Saying, “I am very happy in my life right now, and looking forward to the next challenge, not backward.” Currently in the Democratic primary are former State Department official Jason Blazakis and progressive left activist Sue Altman. PA-10: New Democratic Leader: According to a new Public Policy Polling Democratic primary survey of Pennsylvania’s competitive 10th District (10/16-17; 547 PA-10 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text), the respondents are looking for a new nominee to challenge US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg). The poll suggests that retired news anchor Janelle Stelson holds an early 33-20% edge over 2022 Democratic nominee and Harrisburg City Councilwoman Shamaine Daniels. In November, Ms. Daniels held Rep. Perry to a 54-46% victory. Spending 27 years on the air in south-central Pennsylvania provides her with a substantial district-wide name identification advantage. Expect this race to again be competitive, but Rep. Perry begins as the favorite for re-election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-10 as R+9. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 37th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Rep. Dean Phillips: Reportedly Still Considering Biden Challenge: Media reports are again suggesting that three-term Minnesota US Representative Dean Phillips (D-Plymouth) is still considering challenging President Biden for the Democratic nomination. It is difficult to see how the Congressman would have any reasonable path of victory in challenging the incumbent President of his party when starting at such a late date.
Rep. Phillips has been urging more prominent Democrats to challenge the President, the reason for which is he believes there should be competition for the party nomination. Mr. Phillips concedes, however, that he agrees with President Biden ideologically. Maryland: Jawando Drops Senate Bid: Montgomery County Councilman Will Jawando (D), who was one of the first individuals to declare for the Senate once incumbent Ben Cardin (D) announced his retirement, now becomes the first to withdraw. Mr. Jawando indicated he does not see a path to victory for himself, hence his decision to end his campaign. With his main opponents for the Democratic nomination having much more in the way of resources, a gap which was looking to grow larger, Mr. Jawando was finding it hard to compete.
Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) has already spent just under $10 million on his race and is already advertising heavily. Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) has raised over $3 million. Mr. Jawando reported just over $320,000 in his campaign account. The May 14, 2024, Democratic primary will likely be the deciding factor and it appears the race is already becoming a two-way contest between Rep. Trone and Ms. Alsobrooks. IA-2: Rep. Hinson Draws First Challenger: Disability rights activist Sarah Corkery (D) became the first individual from either party to announce a challenge to two-term Iowa US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids). Three of the four Iowa districts are competitive, including Rep. Hinson’s 2nd. According to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, IA-2 rates R+4. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 51.4R – 45.6D. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks IA-2 as the 29th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.
While the district is competitive on paper, Rep. Hinson is in strong position. She won re-election last year with a 54-46% margin against then-state Sen. Liz Mathis (D) who, like Ms. Hinson, is a former television news anchor and very strong challenger who spent $4.2 million in her race against the Congresswoman. Rep. Hinson also outperformed then-President Trump in the district by a net four percentage points. Therefore, though the district is politically marginal, Rep. Hinson, who is reporting more than $1.3 million in her 2024 campaign account, is a well-positioned incumbent. North Carolina: Redistricting Numbers Calculated: North Carolina legislative leaders released two congressional maps late last week, and now we see voting trend analyses being made public. Dave’s Redistricting App has already calculated partisan leans for the pair of maps. The map drawers obviously adopted a strategy of making the maximum number of Republican districts. They did so by giving each of the seats targeted for GOP candidates partisan trend numbers between 54 and 58%. The three Democratic districts have partisan trends between 66 and 74%. In the second map, the one that could produce an 11R-3D result, Rep. Don Davis’ (D-Snow Hill) 1st District would be up for grabs, with a partisan lean of 50.4D – 48.7R. Expect the legislature to vote on the maps this week. Legal challenges will follow enactment, but the chance of the plan being upheld in the North Carolina Supreme Court with its new 5R-2D composition is strong. Donald Trump: Polling Finds 291 Electoral Votes: According to a series of concurrently conducted independent polls, former President Donald Trump today would lead in enough states to provide him with 291 electoral votes, or 21 more than required to unseat President Biden. Morning Consult, polling for Bloomberg News in various targeted states, projects Mr. Trump to leads in Arizona (+4), Georgia (+5), North Carolina (+4), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+2).
Last week, Emerson College also found Trump holding an advantage in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Simultaneously, the Marketing Resource Group saw Mr. Trump running seven points ahead in Michigan, but the more current Morning Consult/Bloomberg data shows the two candidates tied before the Wolverine State electorate. It is these aforementioned states that will make the difference nationally. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., now running as an Independent candidate, was not tested in the MC/Bloomberg survey series. |
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