Pennsylvania: May Move Primary to Earlier Date: Yesterday, the state Senate on a lopsided 45-2 vote endorsed legislation that would move the Pennsylvania primary, including nomination votes for all 2024 offices, from April 23rd to March 19th. The move would place the state in a more influential position for the presidential nomination process. If the state House of Representatives and Governor agrees, the change in date will place the Keystone State vote on the same day as primaries in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, and Ohio. All March 19th primaries but the vote in Illinois feature stand-alone presidential primaries for both parties.
NM-2: Ex-Rep. Yvette Herrell Takes Small Lead: One of the closest 2022 campaigns occurred in southern New Mexico where then-Las Cruces City Councilman Gabe Vasquez (D) defeated freshman Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) by a scant 50.3 - 49.6% victory margin in a gerrymandered district designed to elect a Democrat. Survey USA was just in the field testing the 2024 re-match campaign. Again, the polling results suggest a toss-up finish.
The S-USA study (9/6-12; 541 NM-2 likely voters; live interview & online) sees Ms. Herrell clutching to a slight one point edge over Rep. Vasquez, 46-45%. If the Republicans are to hold their slim House majority, they must win tight districts such as this one to neutralize the Democrats’ apparent advantage on the second round of redistricting. Florida: Another Congressman Considering Open ’26 Gov Race: Earlier this year, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Ft. Walton Beach) indicated interest in running for what will be an open Governor’s office when incumbent Ron DeSantis (R) will be ineligible to seek a third term. Now, he is saying that such talk is premature. On the other hand, Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) confirmed yesterday that he would consider such a run. Though it is years away, this open Governor’s race will be highly competitive in both party primaries and the general election.
If Gov. DeSantis were to win his current campaign, he of course would resign as Governor before assuming the Presidency. Such would mean Lt. Governor Jeanette Nunez (R) ascending to the Governor’s position. She would not be barred from running in 2026 for a full term in her own right. Louisiana: AG Landry Leading as Primary Nears: The October 14th open Louisiana primary is nearing, and a new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey for Gray Television (9/12-15; 625 LA registered voters; live interview) projects Attorney General and former Congressman Jeff Landry (R) leading Democratic ex-Transportation Department Secretary Shawn Wilson and previous gubernatorial chief of staff and business leader Stephen Waguespack (R) by a 40-24-9% margin. All candidates are placed on the same ballot for the October 14th election. If no candidate receives majority support, which is a likely result, the top two finishers would advance to a November 18th runoff election. Mr. Landry looks to be in good shape against his potential runoff opponents. Opposite Mr. Wilson, the Landry advantage is 52-39%. If Mr. Waguespack were to qualify for the second runoff position, the Attorney General’s lead is an even greater 52-27%. Incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards (D), who has endorsed Mr. Wilson as his successor, is ineligible to run for a third term. Houston: Runoff Schedule Set: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) yesterday indicated that he would select December 9th as the runoff election date for any contest that is not decided in the coming November 7th election.
Under Texas law, a runoff is not officially scheduled until it is certain that one would be required. The open Houston mayoral contest largely between US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) and state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston) is likely the premier electoral contest that will require a secondary vote. The Abbott comments give the candidates a better idea as to what time they will have regarding post-election campaign planning. Donald Trump: Will Not Participate in Coming Debate: Former President Donald Trump yesterday said that he will not join the other Republican candidates at the September 27th debate forum at the Ronald Reagan Library in southern California. Instead, he will be making a speech about the striking United Auto Workers union to lay the groundwork for potential support in the general election.
Continuing to hold a big lead over the entire GOP candidate field, Mr. Trump would stand to gain little by participating in the next forum. Due to more stringent debate requirements, the Republican National Committee expects to have fewer candidates earning a debate podium, with North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and ex-Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson unlikely to qualify. Utah: Two Make Moves to Join Open Race: Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R) announcement that he will not seek re-election has led to a pair of Republicans getting ready to enter the race. Roosevelt Mayor Rod “JR” Bird, Jr. just announced his candidacy joining Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs in the active field. State House Speaker Brad Wilson (R-Kaysville) said he will resign his position in mid-November and has scheduled a “special announcement” for September 27th. We can expect a large Republican field to form.
VA-7: ’22 Cong Candidate will Return: Iraq War veteran and attorney Derrick Anderson (R) who ran for the 7th District seat in the last election but failed to win the Republican primary, announced that he will return in 2024. Four other Republicans have already declared their candidacies for the politically marginal seat.
Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) is reportedly studying a 2025 run for Governor, and if she ultimately moves in that direction would not seek re-election to the House in 2024. Therefore, this race will move up the competitive scale. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the VA-7 seat as D+2. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the 7th as the 14th most vulnerable seat in the 213-member Democratic conference. VA-10: Health will keep Rep. Wexton from Seeking Re-Election: Three-term Virginia US Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Leesburg) announced yesterday that she will not run for a fourth term next year due to a tragic health diagnosis. "I've always believed that honesty is the most important value in public service, so I want to be honest with you now – this new diagnosis is a tough one. There is no 'getting better' with PSP (Progressive Supranuclear Palsy).” Virginia’s 10th Congressional District is anchored in Loudoun County and contains Fauquier and Rappahannock counties along with parts of Prince William and Fairfax counties. The cities of Manassas and Manassas Park are also included. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat D+8, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 55.2D – 43.0R. President Biden carried this district with a substantial 58.3 – 40.2% margin. We can expect a competitive open campaign to develop here, but the eventual Democratic nominee will have a clear advantage in the general election. Pennsylvania: McCormick to Announce on Thursday: David McCormick, the former hedge fund CEO and Republican US Senate candidate who lost his 2022 party nomination bid to Dr. Mehmet Oz by just 950 votes, is reportedly poised to make a run at three-term incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D) next year. He has scheduled an announcement event for Thursday, which should officially launch his 2024 campaign. Though it is unlikely that Mr. McCormick will face a strong challenge for the party nomination, Sen. Casey will begin the active campaign season as the clear favorite to win the race.
CA-16, 18: Ex-Mayor Won’t Run: Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) who said earlier in the year he was deciding whether to challenge Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) or Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose) in California’s March Democratic primary will not run against anybody. Instead, he has accepted a position with a legislative advocacy firm. Both Reps. Eshoo and Lofgren appear as prohibitive favorites to win another term in the House irrespective of who might be their Democratic primary and general election opponents.
MI-13: Two Will Return to Challenge Rep. Thanedar: Freshman Michigan Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit), who won a crowded open Democratic primary in 2022 with just 28% of the vote, will face at least two of the same opponents in his renomination fight next year. Former state Sen. Adam Hollier and John Conyers III, whose father held this same seat for 52 years, appear to be sure bets to return for another electoral battle. Once again, however, a crowded field will help Mr. Thanedar because his opposition vote will be split. The Democratic primary will determine who represents the district. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MI-13 as D+46. PA-10: Anchorwoman May Soon Declare: Veteran news anchorwoman Janelle Stelson (D) has resigned her position with WGAL-TV in Lancaster, PA, ostensibly to soon declare her candidacy opposite US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg). While Ms. Stelson is well known in the Lancaster area, which media market touches York County, the bulk of the 10th District population lies in the Harrisburg/Dauphin County region. Therefore, she does not command districtwide name identification. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 10th District as R+9, which suggests a competitive race but one that a Republican should typically win. Rep. Perry was originally elected in 2012. He begins this race as a clear favorite for re-election. |
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