As a polling entity, the ABC News/Washington Post effort is rated as one of six A+ pollsters on the FiveThirtyEight statistical organization rating card. The media partners just released a pair of polls this week, one from Arizona and the other Florida. They both capture how much a survey sample can swing based upon segmentation, in this case from registered to likely voters.
The Arizona poll (9/15-20; 701 AZ registered voters; 579 AZ likely voters) finds President Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden, 47-49% with registered voters, but leading 49-48% among those who are most likely to vote. In Florida, we see an even greater split. That ABC/WP survey (9/15-20; 765 FL registered voters; 613 FL likely voters) projects Mr. Biden holding a bare 48-47% edge among those registered to vote but leads 51-47% within the segment of those most likely to cast their ballot. This example underscores the importance of the voter participation model in determining election outcomes. Contrary to opinion that Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) may have blown her re-election chances by immediately moving to postpone the vote on a successor to the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a Moore Information survey for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (9/20-22; 500 ME likely voters) finds Sen. Collins and state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport) tied in their latest poll. Ms. Gideon has been ahead in the race for months, but this survey finds both candidates drawing 42%, apiece. It remains to be seen if this rather surprising trend continues as the SCOTUS replacement process begins in earnest.
In 2018, Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) was re-elected with just a 50.4 – 49.6% margin, a spread of just 2,058 votes of almost 271,000 ballots cast. The GBAO polling organization just released the second public survey of this district (9/17-20; 600 IL-13 likely voters) for the 2020 campaign and see a virtual rerun campaign between Mr. Davis and businesswoman and 2018 congressional nominee Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D). The GBAO findings project a 48-47% Davis slight lead, almost identical to how their last campaign ended.
The first publicly released poll came at the end of July and into early August from RMG Research (7/27-8/7; 500 IL-13 registered voters) and saw a potentially conflicting 43-41% edge for Ms. Londrigan. Two pollsters surveyed the open western Michigan 3rd Congressional District, the We Ask America firm and the ALG Research polling organization. The results are radically different even though they were conducted over almost exactly the same time period.
We Ask America surveyed the district from September 19-20 (400 MI-3 likely voters; combination live interview and automated calls) and see Republican Iraq and Afghan War veteran and grocery store magnate Peter Meijer leading attorney Hillary Scholten, 48-41%, with both candidates having almost identical favorability index ratings. Mr. Meijer records a 39:30% positive ratio, while Ms. Scholten registers a 36:28% positive to negative index. Conversely, ALG (9/16-20; 501 MI-3 likely voters) arrives at a much different conclusion. This data finds Ms. Scholten holding a two-point, 44-42%, edge. Voting history suggests that the WAA result is the more accurate of the two, however, considering this district has elected a Democrat only one time since 1912. We have two more examples of pollsters testing the same electorate and arriving at vastly different conclusions. In Arizona, Morning Consult (9/11-20; 907 AZ likely voters; online from pre-determined sampling group) finds retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) holding a nine-point, 49-40%, lead over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R). While Fabrizio Lee & Associates also see Mr. Kelly with an edge, the margin is much different. From their survey (9/14-16; 800 AZ likely voters; live interview), Kelly’s lead is only two points over Sen. McSally, 48-46%.
We see a similar pattern in Michigan. The Ipsos research organization (9/11-16; 637 MI likely voters) detects Sen. Gary Peters (D) with a six-point, 49-43%, spread over manufacturing company owner John James (R), while the Marketing Resource Group (9/14-19; 600 MI likely voters) sees only a two point difference between the two, 42-40%, with a greater undecided factor. While the aforementioned states are returning very different results through multiple polls, the South Carolina data has been very consistent since July. The race between Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) and challenger Jaime Harrison (D), the former chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party, has hovered within three percentage points since the end of that month. The latest Morning Consult survey (9/11-20; 764 SC likely voters; online from pre-determined sampling group) is no exception.
Here, MC again finds the two candidates in a virtual tie, with Sen. Graham holding the slimmest of leads, 46-45%. It is clear that Sen. Graham will attempt to use his position as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee during the Supreme Court confirmation hearings as a way to improve his standing among Republican voters, a group with which he runs seven points behind President Trump on the party loyalty factor. The Alabama Republican challenger campaign has generally drawn little attention, but a new Morning Consult survey (9/11-20; 658 AL likely voters; online from pre-determined sampling group) suggests that retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) enjoys a major lead over Sen. Doug Jones (D). The MC results find Mr. Tuberville holding a strong 52-34% advantage over Sen. Jones. Winning this seat is critical to any chance the Republicans have of holding their Senate majority.
Party-switching New Jersey Congressman Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis Township/Atlantic City), who left the Democratic Party after a year in Congress, finds himself in a re-election fight with Amy Kennedy (D), the wife of former US Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-RI). A new Public Policy Polling survey, without using push questions (9/14-15; 550 NJ voters; interactive voice response system), posts Ms. Kennedy to a five-point, 48-43%, lead over the incumbent Congressman. Expect this race to draw more attention from both parties in the closing campaign weeks.
Two-term Vermont Gov. Phil Scott, a rare Republican elected official in this state, looks to be in strong shape to secure a third two-year term. Braun Research for Vermont Public Radio and Vermont Public Broadcasting (9/3-15; 586 VT likely voters; live interview) finds Gov. Scott holding a whopping 55-24% lead over Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman (D).
A Strategies 360 survey (9/8-14; 501 WA registered voters; live interview) projects that two-term Gov. Jay Inslee (D) is poised to easily win a third term. The results find the Governor holding a strong 53-37% advantage over local town police chief Loren Culp (R) in a race that was never expected to be competitive.
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