The new small-sample Monmouth University poll (9/12-16; 325 NJ Democratic registered voters) was publicized yesterday and a close race is developing here, too. Though home state Sen. Cory Booker is improving, up to 9% support in this survey, the top three are still dominating the decided preferences.
Former VP Joe Biden tops the field with 26% followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at 20% and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) with 18 percent. Falling well behind are Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg who both post 6% support figures. The New Jersey primary is one of the latest contests in the nomination cycle, scheduled for June 2, 2020. The state has 107 first ballot delegates. A new Democratic poll, from the Bendixen & Amandi International firm for the Arizona Sheet Metal Workers union (9/9-12; 520 AZ registered voters), again produces similar results to previously published data. The Bendixen data finds appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) and retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) tied at 42% apiece. Clearly, this campaign is going to be a premier national US Senate contest with both candidates raising millions of dollars and seeing no more than a point or two separating them from its inception.
Former California Congressman Darrell Issa (R) reportedly has received word that the Senate will move forward on his nomination as director of the US Trade and Development Agency soon, but the retired nine-term House member says he will continue preparing to run for the 50th Congressional District unless he is confirmed by November 3rd. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine) is under indictment and faces a trial after the first of the year. Four other Republicans have already announced their intention to run. One Democrat, 2018 nominee Ammar Campa-Najjar, has also declared his 2020 candidacy.
A fifth Republican, Temecula City Councilman and former Mayor Matt Rahn, has decided against running. He originally filed a campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission but says the uncertainty of the situation surrounding Mr. Hunter leads him to discontinue his campaign. The California candidate filing deadline is December 6th, with the jungle primary election scheduled for March 3rd. In 2018, hotel executive and attorney Suraj Patel spent over $2 million of his own money to challenge Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-New York City) in the Democratic primary. The first returns showed a tight race, but when all the ballots were counted, Rep. Maloney posted a comfortable 60-40% re-nomination victory.
Yesterday, Mr. Patel announced that he will return for a re-match, though two other minor Democrats have also already filed. He also promises to run a campaign that emphasizes what he says are more relevant issues than during his last effort. Two new Iowa Democratic presidential polls both show South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg returning to the candidates’ top tier, reversing his recent single digit performance. According to the Civiqs research firm, polling for Iowa State University (9/13-17; 572 IA likely caucus attenders), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has opened up a lead over former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). The results find the spread at 25-16-16%, with Mayor Buttigieg creeping up on second place with his own 13% showing.
The second Iowa survey, from Dave Binder Research (9/14-16; 500 IA likely Democratic caucus attenders), sees Mr. Biden still claiming the lead at 25%, with Sen. Warren closely behind with 23%. In this poll, Mayor Buttigieg eclipses Sen. Sanders for third place, posting 12% to the Vermont lawmaker’s 9%. While there are wide ranges for several candidates between these two polls, the Buttigieg number is consistent. Another contender needing to make a strong Iowa showing, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), does so on this survey coming in just behind Sen. Sanders at 8% preference, by far her best showing in any political poll. The YouGov international polling firm again conducted a national Democratic Primary poll (9/14-17; 603 US likely Democratic primary voters) and generally confirms other recent data results. YouGov finds former Vice President Joe Biden leading the field with 25%, while Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) follow with 19 and 15%, respectively. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) again comes in at only 5%, but New York City businessman Andrew Yang posts 3%, as does ex-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX).
As predicted a couple of weeks ago, four-term Rep. Paul Cook (R-Yucca Valley) announced that he will not seek another term in the US House but will instead file for an open seat on the San Bernardino Board of Supervisors. Mr. Cook, who will be 77 years of age at the next election, will be able to continue in public service should he be elected but won’t have to travel cross country almost every week.
Immediately, state Assemblyman Jay Obernolte (R-Hesperia) announced that he would run for Congress, and just as quickly Rep. Cook endorsed him. The 8th District is one of the few safe Republican seats in California. It stretches from the San Bernardino suburbs all the way to the Nevada border, then north almost to the outer reaches of Lake Tahoe. In the last election, Mr. Cook and another Republican, former Assemblyman Tim Donnelly, advanced into the general election from the jungle primary. As expected, state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R-Juneau) announced his intention to run for the open Milwaukee suburban House seat from which veteran Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R-Menominee Falls) is retiring. The seat is safely Republican, so the April GOP primary will ultimately determine who succeeds Mr. Sensenbrenner. The Congressman is serving what will be 42 consecutive years of service at the end of this Congress. He is second in House seniority.
Also testing the political waters in this area is Matt Walker, son of former Gov. Scott Walker (R). Ex-state Sen. Leah Vukmir, the 2018 Republican nominee for US Senate and an ally of Fitzgerald, earlier said that she would not run for the 5th District, thus opening the door for the Majority Leader. Emerson College conducted a poll in Sen. Kamala Harris’ home state (9/13-16; 474 CA likely Democratic primary voters) and finds that the Senator has even dropped behind New York City businessman Andrew Yang on her own political turf. Emerson projects a close and crowded top tier, with former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) tied at 26% apiece. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is close behind with 20% support. Mr. Yang and Sen. Harris post 7 and 6%, respectively.
This poll confirms that the Democratic race has evolved into a three-way race among Biden, Sanders, and Warren, even in California. Such a tight configuration, if it were to hold, would also suggest a virtually even split among the state’s 416 first ballot delegates, the largest contingent heading to the Democratic National Convention next July in Milwaukee. Siena College just published the results of their New York state poll (9/8-12; 359 NY likely Democratic primary voters), which yields a close finish here, too. Siena sees former Vice President Joe Biden taking first place, but with only a 22% support level. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is next with 17%, followed closely by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) with 15%.
These percentages again suggest that winning New York is still within any of the three candidates’ grasp. Voting later in the cycle (April 28th), the New York primary could become pivotal in determining the future Democratic nominee. |
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