A new independent Monmouth University poll (9/13-16; 402 CA-39 likely voters) is forecasting Republican former state Assemblywoman Young Kim to a new double-digit lead over retired Naval officer and lottery winner Gil Cisneros (D). According to the Monmouth result, Ms. Kim now has a strong 51-41% lead for retiring Rep. Ed Royce’s (R-Yorba Linda/ Fullerton) seat. Previously, the race had been considered to be languishing in the toss-up category.
Heavy outside organization media attacks against Cisneros are largely responsible for the status change. Mr. Cisneros is being accused of sexual harassment by a Democratic former state Assembly candidate, which is being referenced in ads. Additionally, the Congressional Leadership Fund is pounding him for investing in companies that do business with Iran, and others that evaded paying taxes. The open 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary recount has now concluded. As expected, after the initial recount precincts actually added votes to her total, former congressional chief of staff and businesswoman Lori Trahan has now officially clinched the party nomination. Her main opponent, Boston mayoral former chief of staff Dan Koh, conceded defeat.
The original count, which found Ms. Trahan leading by just 52 votes, expanded to a 145-vote margin when the canvass and recount concluded. Therefore, the final percentage total finds Ms. Trahan scoring 21.7% of the vote within the ten-candidate field opposite Mr. Koh’s 21.5%. The new Democratic nominee is now favored to defeat Republican businessman Rick Green in the general election, though an upset is not entirely out of the question because popular Gov. Charlie Baker (R) will have to maximize his performance in this district in order to secure his statewide victory. The seat is open because Rep. Niki Tsongas (D-Lowell) is retiring. Marquette University Law School just released their September poll (9/12-16; 800 WI registered voters; 614 likely voters) and sees Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) substantially strengthening her advantage over state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield).
In Marquette’s August poll, the margin between the two candidates was only two percentage points (Baldwin leading 49-47%), but this new survey finds the Senator establishing a 53-42% advantage. Sen. Baldwin, without facing a primary, launched a strong media wave just before and after the August 14th vote, thus taking advantage of Ms. Vukmir having to spend her treasury in order to win the competitive Republican vote. In a race that continually polls close but bounces back and forth between Gov. Scott Walker (R) and Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers (D), the aforementioned Marquette University Law School survey (see Wisconsin Senate above) finds the Governor trailing Mr. Evers, 49-44% among likely voters. Expanding to the registered voters universe, the split is a similar 47-43% in Mr. Evers’ favor.
Gov. Walker is running for a third term, but he has already won three elections since 2010, including surviving a statewide recall vote in 2012. A new Minneapolis Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategies poll (9/10-12; 800 MN likely voters) finds state Sen. Karin Housley (R-St. Croix Valley) pulling to within high single-digits of appointed Sen. Tina Smith (D) in the upcoming special Senate election scheduled concurrently with the regular election calendar. According to the Mason-Dixon results, Sen. Smith’s lead is narrowing to 44-37%, placing Housley within shouting distance of the incumbent with Sen. Smith well below 50%. This special election effort may become one to watch as Election Day draws ever nearer.
Despite political rumors previously circulating that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) was going to abandon Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-McLean) because early polling suggested a Democratic lead, their latest action proves such conjecture wholly false. The NRCC just committed over $710,000 in new independent expenditures on Rep. Comstock’s behalf, making her the top recipient of their most recently announced round of spending in 15 districts around the country.
Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown), and the open Democratic seat in southern Minnesota (MN-1; Rep. Tim Walz (D-Mankato) running for Governor) are the next two attracting substantial support. The NRCC is immediately investing $523,000 into an independent expenditure in PA-1, and $509,000 of similar spending for MN-1. It has now become apparent that New York Republican officials will not be able to legally remove Rep. Chris Collins’ (R-Clarence/Batavia) name from the November ballot. Mr. Collins was indicted for insider trading in a situation involving his son and a company in which both served on the board of directors. After the indictment, the Congressman indicated that he would not seek re-election and asked party officials to replace him with a new nominee.
Now clear that such cannot happen under New York election law, Mr. Collins will be forced to try to save the campaign for the GOP. The Republicans are in no condition to relinquish a safe Republican seat, particularly when several other northeast GOP districts, specifically in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, will flip to the Democrats without a reasonable fight. The Democratic nominee opposing Rep. Collins is Grand Island town official Nate McMurray, but he has yet to make a mark on the campaign trail. Despite what is normally a safe Upstate Republican seat, we can certainly expect to see national and local Democrats quickly coalescing behind McMurray to finance a serious run. US Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Albuquerque) is sustaining a 50-43% advantage over GOP Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs) in the open Governor’s race as reported in a new Albuquerque Journal newspaper poll (Research & Polling, Inc.; 9/7-13; 966 NM registered voters). The winner replaces term-limited Gov. Susana Martinez (R) next year.
Earlier, Ms. Grisham’s lead over Mr. Pearce had dropped to two points, 42-40%, when Emerson College released the results of their mid-August survey. Since then two Democratic polls gave her leads of eight and ten points, and now we see a seven-point spread in this latest independent survey. The aforementioned Minneapolis Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategies survey (see Minnesota Senate above) finds US Rep. Tim Walz (D-Mankato) developing a significant lead over Hennepin County Commissioner and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Jeff Johnson (R). The M-D data finds Mr. Walz’s margin to be 45-36% with a large gender gap. Among men, the race is tied at 40-40%, but women give the Democratic nominee a whopping 18-point advantage at 50-32%.
The Siena College/New York Times polling series examined the east Denver suburbs (9/12-14; 500 CO-6 likely voters) and found five-term incumbent Mike Coffman (R-Aurora) falling significantly behind in his battle for re-election. The Congressman, who has won three difficult campaigns in a district drawn to defeat him, now looks to be trailing by double digits. According to the Siena data, challenger Jason Crow (D), an attorney and Iraq War veteran, leads Rep. Coffman, 51-40%. It is clear the Congressman has his work cut out for him to score another unconventional political victory.
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