US Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA), who failed to qualify for any of the national debates and never made a ripple in the presidential campaign, became the fourth national candidate to formally withdraw. Following the lead of previously departed presidential candidates Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), ex-Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, Rep. Moulton is likely to immediately move into another campaign.
It is believed he will return to seek re-election to his northeastern Massachusetts congressional district. If so, he will likely face three credible Democratic primary challengers including Salem City Councilwoman Lisa Peterson. But, with the Massachusetts congressional primary not until September 15th of next year, Rep. Moulton has plenty of time to recover from his failed presidential effort. During the past few weeks Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) seemed to be locking into a second-place position but the latest polls are reflecting a different result. The HarrisX research firm released their latest survey (8/20-23; 1,343 US registered Democratic voters), which provides more support for a new trend. That is, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) eclipsing Ms. Warren for the second position behind former Vice President Joe Biden. Their latest data finds Biden recording 28% preference followed by Sanders’ 17%, and Warren’s 12 percent. All others are in single digits.
The long process for former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper to end his presidential campaign and convert into a Senate candidacy has finished. Yesterday, Mr. Hickenlooper, despite earlier saying the Senate would not suit him, declared his candidacy. He has 13 Democratic opponents, but some of those may withdraw. The eventual nominee faces vulnerable Republican Sen. Cory Gardner. Early polling gives Hickenlooper a large lead, but Gardner is arguably the Republicans’ best Senate campaigner.
Former one-term Congressman Jason Lewis (R) announced yesterday, as expected, that he will challenge Sen. Tina Smith (D) next year. Mr. Lewis was originally elected to the House in 2016, defeating businesswoman Angie Craig. In the 2018 election, Ms. Craig returned for a re-match and unseated the freshman incumbent. Instead of attempting to regain his 2nd District Congressional seat, the former radio talk show host has now entered the statewide campaign.
The move gives Republicans a credible Senate nominee. Sen. Smith was appointed to replace Al Franken when he resigned due to a sexual harassment scandal. She was then elected in a special election last November to fill the balance of the current term on a 53-42% vote over state Senator Karin Housley (R). Ms. Housley chose to seek re-election to her current position rather than return for a re-match in the US Senate race. Public Policy Polling tested the North Carolina Senate Republican primary (8/19-20; 564 NC likely Republican primary voters) and found incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis leading businessman Garland Tucker by an unimpressive margin. The survey results found Mr. Tillis leading only 38-31% in a state that has a penchant for defeating its US Senators. Since the 1974 election, only Senators Jesse Helms (R) and Richard Burr (R) have successfully been re-elected. Democrats are coalescing around former state Sen. Cal Cunningham as their prospective nominee. The North Carolina primary is scheduled for March 3, 2020.
State Rep. John Rogers (D-Birmingham) has ended his Democratic primary challenge to US Sen. Doug Jones saying he does not have the resources to compete with the incumbent. The primary challenge was never viewed as particularly serious, but now it will not even be an irritant. Sen. Jones will face a very difficult general re-election, however, against the eventual Republican nominee in a state that will be one of President Trump’s strongest domains.
A 10th Circuit Appellate three-judge panel overturned a federal district court ruling that allows states to mandate Electoral College members vote for the candidate who carried the state they represent. Michael Baca, a 2016 Colorado Elector who said he would not vote for Hillary Clinton despite the candidate winning his state because of a national elector strategy designed to deny Donald Trump the Presidency, was removed from his position before the Electoral College convened. He subsequently filed a lawsuit against the state arguing that his constitutional rights were violated.
The Appellate Court ruling agreeing with Baca could have a wide-ranging effect. Twenty-nine states and the District of Columbia, including Colorado, bind their electors to vote as did the state. The 10th Circuit is in conflict with the Washington state Supreme Court which ruled the opposite way in a similar case. Therefore, we could see the US Supreme Court petitioned to make a declarative ruling. Last week, former three-time World Series champion pitcher Curt Schilling indicated that he was considering running in an Arizona congressional district. This week, Mr. Schilling, who pitched for the Arizona Diamondbacks and attended high school and college in the state, said if he does run it will be against Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-Sedona) in the expansive 1st Congressional District that encompasses almost all of eastern Arizona.
Such a move would make sense. The 1st is politically marginal in that it voted for President Trump (48-47%) and has flipped between electing Democrats and Republicans to the House over the past 20 years. Additionally, Rep. O’Halleran has already drawn two Democratic primary opponents, the competition from which could potentially make for an even tighter general election campaign. Congressional candidate Greg Raths, a retired Marine Corps officer and member of the Mission Viejo City Council, the 45th District’s second largest municipality, released its recent internal Fabrizio Lee Associates poll (8/15-18; 300 CA-45 likely jungle primary voters). Their data shows Mr. Raths as the strongest Republican, but not to the point of being out of reach for any of the others. Freshman Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) easily captures first place for the jungle primary with 46%, followed by Mr. Raths with 10%.
Three other candidates, Laguna Hills City Councilman Don Sedgwick, Yorba Linda City Councilwoman Peggy Huang (Yorba Linda is not in the 45th CD), and Orange County Deputy District Attorney Ray Gennawey all finish with either 3 or 2% support. We can expect this race to be a major congressional contest in the fall of 2020. Mega-GOP and conservative cause donor Kathaleen Wall announced her congressional candidacy for the open 22nd District yesterday. In the last cycle she ran in the open 2nd District and lost to now-Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Houston) by just 155 votes as she failed to qualify for the run-off that the latter man eventually won. We can expect both a tight primary and general election in this seat from which four-term Rep. Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land) is retiring.
Also in the GOP race is County Court judge Greg Hill, a former Pearland City Councilman. Expected to join the race is Ft. Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls. For the Democrats, the leading contender is 2018 nominee Sri Preston Kulkarni, who held Mr. Olson to a 51-46% re-election victory last November. |
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