Quinnipiac University just released their latest New Jersey poll (8/15-20; 908 NJ registered voters) and find Sen. Bob Menendez (D) leading his Republican opponent, former pharmaceutical CEO Bob Hugin (R) by only a 43-37% margin with a job approval index of 40:47% favorable to unfavorable, and a personal approval of 29:47%. Still, Republicans tend to over-poll in New Jersey, so despite his negative image, Sen. Menendez remains the favorite for re-election.
As with the reports from Minnesota and Texas, the Marquette Law School also produced Governor numbers for their statewide Wisconsin poll. According to the results, Gov. Scott Walker (R) and Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers (D) would fall into a 46-46% tie. This is a better standing for Walker than the Public Policy Polling survey taken within the same time segment (8/15-16; 596 WI likely voters) that find Mr. Evers holding a 49-44% advantage. Both polls indicate that this Governor’s campaign will be close, which is not surprising for a Wisconsin statewide election.
The aforementioned Suffolk University poll (see Minnesota Senate above) also test the new Governor’s race between US Rep. Tim Walz (D-Mankato) and Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson (R). The Suffolk numbers actually post Mr. Johnson in a slightly improving position when compared to the immediate post-primary polls. The new Suffolk data gives Mr. Walz a 46-41% edge. Just before the state primary, Emerson College Polling (8/8-11; 500 MN likely voters) found Walz leading Johnson, 40-33%.
Following the Texas Senate report above, NBC/Marist also tested the Governor’s race between incumbent Greg Abbott (R) and former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D). Again, remembering the poll is of adults and not segmented even to a registered voters cell, the numbers break 56-35% for Abbott. It is likely a registered voters segment would provide the Governor with an even stronger lead.
Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso defeated self-funding Republican primary challenger Dave Dodson in a landslide 67-28% result last night, and becomes the prohibitive favorite to win a third term in November.
In the close Governor’s primary, state Treasurer Mark Gordon defeated billionaire mutual fund founder and national Republican donor Foster Friess, and attorney Harriet Hageman, 32-26-21%, to capture the open GOP nomination. Mr. Gordon will now oppose former state Rep. Mary Throne (D-Cheyenne), who was an easy winner in the Democratic primary. Republican Gov. Matt Mead is ineligible to seek a third term. At-large freshman Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wilson/Jackson Hole) also had little trouble winning her primary, and has clear sailing to clinch a second term in November. In Alaska, former state Sen. Mike Dunleavy easily defeated former Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell to win the Republican gubernatorial nomination. He now enters into a three-way general election that features Independent Gov. Bill Walker and former US Senator Mark Begich, who was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Early polling suggests that Gov. Walker is in danger of losing the general election, as he trails both major party nominees. The Dean of the House, Rep. Don Young (R-Ft. Yukon) serving his 23rd term, was re-nominated in a landslide result last night with 71% of the vote. Democratic education reform activist Alyse Galvin will oppose him in the general election. According to a newly released Tulchin Research survey for the Carolyn Bourdeaux campaign (referred to as “mid-August”; 400 GA-7 likely voters), the new Democratic nominee has jumped out to a slight 46-44% lead over four-term Rep. Rob Woodall (R-Lawrenceville). The result could be related to Ms. Bourdeaux, a former staff director for the state Senate Budget Committee, getting a bump from winning the late July run-off election where she slipped past chain business owner David Kim to advance into the general election.
The 7th is a reliable Republican district, so it will be important to analyze further data in order to determine whether this poll is an anomaly. GA-7 is another district that previously has not been competitive, which now appears coming into play. Responding to a Republican poll released last week from his opponent, former Rep. Cresent Hardy (R) that showed a 41-41% tie, ex-Rep. Steven Horsford (D) replied yesterday in publicizing his own Global Strategy Group survey conducted back in July (7/17-22; 500 NV-4 likely voters) that gave him a 42-32% lead.
The 4th has proven itself to be a volatile district, as it has elected three different Congressmen since its inception in the 2011 redistricting plan. Therefore, the swing between the two polls could suggest a bouncing effect within the electorate meaning we will again see a close race. Phoenix-based pollster OH Predictive Insights is back with a new poll, this time covering the Arizona Democratic gubernatorial primary. According to their data (8/14-15; 589 AZ Democratic primary likely voters), Arizona State University professor David Garcia holds a 40-25% lead over state Sen. Steve Farley (D-Tucson). The data is relatively consistent with other previous polls, though very few have been placed in the public domain. The Arizona primary is next Tuesday, August 28th. The Democratic winner will face Gov. Doug Ducey (R) in the general election.
Independent gubernatorial candidate Greg Orman, who is now trying to portray himself as a centrist after running from the left when he opposed Sen. Pat Roberts (R) in 2014, has officially qualified for the general election ballot. Mr. Orman has submitted the proper number of valid petition signatures necessary to securing a ballot position. He joins a three-way race with Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) and state Sen. Laura Kelly (D-Topeka), the two major party nominees.
The qualification did not stop Democrats from challenging his status, however. A complaint, in an attempt to bar Orman from running, was filed on Monday. The plaintiffs contend that many of the Orman signatures are invalid. Democrats are fearful that Orman will take enough votes away from Kelly so as to allow Kobach to win with only a plurality vote. Thus, launching their long shot move to try and remove him. An objections panel comprised of representatives from the Secretary of State, Attorney General, and Lt. Governor’s offices will hear the complaint and make a subsequent ruling. A new University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll was just released (8/2-19; 501 NH adults; 389 NH registered voters), and it finds Gov. Chris Sununu (R) in good position to secure a second two-year term. The results project the Governor holding a 48-32% advantage over former state Sen. Molly Kelly (D-Harrisville), who is favored to defeat ex-Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand in the September 11th Democratic primary. The Governor’s favorability index is a rock solid 61:21% positive to negative.
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