On the heels of Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson) saying she will announce her Senate challenge to incumbent Dean Heller (R) sometime next week, another key Nevada Democrat confirms she has not ruled out running. Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) says she is still considering jumping into the Senate campaign, and apparently does not rule out a primary with Ms. Rosen. Chances are her statements yesterday are mostly just talk, however. Rep. Titus’ anemic first quarter fundraising - $73,000 raised with $274,000 cash-on-hand – does not portend a budding Senate candidate, but we’ll soon see what her second quarter report brings.
Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak (D) announced his gubernatorial candidacy yesterday, becoming the first major prospective contender from either party to come forward and declare. The move had been expected. Attorney General Adam Laxalt, also unannounced, is viewed to be the leading Republican candidate. In late May, Remington Research tested a hypothetical Laxalt-Sisolak gubernatorial race and found the Republican leading the Democratic local official, 46-37%. Mr. Sisolak was just re-elected to a final term on the Clark County Commission in November. He would not be eligible to seek re-election in 2020.
Lost in the hoopla and hype surrounding the 6th District special election is a rather eye-opening statistic. Rodney Stooksbury was the 2016 Democratic nominee challenging Rep. Tom Price (R-Roswell). Mr. Stooksbury’s campaign consisted of him putting his name on the ballot. He raised $0. His vote total was 124,917, good for 38% against the veteran incumbent. On Tuesday, Jon Ossoff spent somewhere between $33 and 35 million on his special election campaign. His vote total: 124,893, or 24 ballots less than Stooksbury’s previous mark. This tells us that Ossoff only equaled the Democratic base vote in the 6th District and he failed to expand the party turnout universe. While participation was extremely high for a special election: 259,622 voters, it was far short of the presidential year turnout of 326,005. It is now obvious that for Ossoff to win, he needed to boost turnout even higher and be more effective in attracting Independents and soft Republicans.
Prince Georges County Executive Rushern Baker (D), as expected, joined the expanding Democratic primary gubernatorial field, yesterday. The candidates are jockeying for the right to challenge incumbent Gov. Larry Hogan (R), who enjoys strong favorability ratings. Mr. Baker joins former NAACP president Ben Jealous, state Sen. Rich Madaleno, Maryland University Regent Jim Shea, and technology executive Alec Ross as announced candidates. US Rep. John Delaney (D-Potomac) remains as a possible gubernatorial candidate.
Businessman Colin Minehart, former president of the Minnesota Licensed Beverage Association, announced his congressional candidacy earlier this week. He joins former state Sen. Vicky Jensen in the Democratic primary. The winner will attempt to succeed incumbent Rep. Tim Walz (D-Mankato), who is running for Governor. Since Mr. Walz was re-elected with only 50.3% of the vote in November, this race promises to be hotly contested. Businessman Jim Hagedorn, the Republican who held Walz to his low win percentage, is returning for the open seat contest.
Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett became the first Republican to announce a GOP primary challenge to new Gov. Kim Reynolds, who ascended to her position in late May. The transition came when Gov. Terry Branstad (R) accepted President Trump’s appointment as US Ambassador to China forcing him to resign as the state’s chief executive. Previously, Ms. Reynolds had been Lt. Governor, and a state Senator prior to winning the statewide office. Seven Democrats have already entered the gubernatorial race, including two state legislators, a pair of former state Democratic Party chairmen, and a labor union local president. The Iowa Governor’s race is certainly a campaign to watch.
A new Quinnipiac University of Virginia poll produces better results for Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam than last week’s Harper Polling survey data. The latter study found he and former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie tied at 46%. The Q-Poll (6/15-20; 1,145 VA registered voters) gives the Lt. Governor and new Democratic gubernatorial nominee a 47-39% advantage. Northam also has a better favorability index: 47:39% positive to negative versus Gillespie’s 29:29% ratio. Still, respondents trusted Gillespie to do a better job with the economy and on taxes, while they favored Northam on education, healthcare, and immigration - the latter by only a slight 40-37% margin. ham on education, healthcare, and immigration - the latter by only a slight 40-37% margin.
Last evening’s other special congressional campaign also yielded an unexpected ending. Although former state Rep. Ralph Norman (R) won the vote to succeed Office of Management & Budget Director Mick Mulvaney and hold the Republican seat for the GOP, his 51-49% margin from a small turnout of 87,840 voters was underwhelming.
The Democratic leadership’s decision to concede this race early will now add to their pain from last night. Ironically, spending what will likely be about 3% of Georgia candidate Jon Ossoff’s record total, it was Archie Parnell who became the Democratic candidate coming closest to victory in last night’s special election contests. While the latest Federal Election Commission report, for the period ending May 31st, found Ossoff raising $23.6 million, central South Carolina’s Parnell had only $763,000. The Norman and Handel victories restore the House Republican Conference to 241 members and the Democrats to 194, the numbers determined after the regular election. Once Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) resigns on June 30th, the next special election, this one in eastern Utah, will end with an August 15th primary and November 7th special general election. Therefore, the special election season comes to a close with Republicans holding all four of their risked seats: KS-4, MT-AL, GA-6, and SC-5, while the Democrats held serve in CA-34, the district former Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles) left to accept an appointment as California Attorney General. Rep. Chaffetz’s UT-3 seat is also easily expected to remain Republican. In that district, Hillary Clinton didn’t even manage to finish second, coming in behind both President Trump and Independent candidate Evan McMillan. Though his formal announcement is scheduled for a later time, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Robert Young (R) confirmed that he will enter the Michigan US Senate campaign next year. Already in the Republican primary is Trump campaign state co-chair Lena Epstein, a local Troy businesswoman. Justice Young spent 17 years on the Michigan high court, winning three statewide elections, and will be favored to claim the nomination. The eventual GOP candidate faces three-term incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D), who is expected to seek re-election. Michigan is one of the ten states where a Democratic Senator must run for re-election next year in a state that President Trump carried.
It is clear that Sen. Dean Heller (R), by virtue of Nevada being a political swing state and because of his scant 46-45% victory margin in 2012 is the Democrats’ top conversion target for the coming election, but no one has yet stepped forward to announce a challenge. But, the wait for a viable contender is almost over. Freshman US Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson) reportedly will now announce her Senate candidacy next week.
While the Rosen entry gives the Democrats a credible challenger, her first experience as a political office seeker drew mixed reviews. Winning a marginal Las Vegas area district, even one where President Trump scored a 48-47% victory over Hillary Clinton, the new Congresswoman’s 47-46% victory margin opposite perennial Republican candidate Danny Tarkanian was not particularly inspiring. The $1.7 million she spent is about average for a targeted open seat, but under what was expected for a major toss-up campaign. Her 3rd District was vacated in the 2016 election because Republican incumbent Joe Heck (R-Henderson) ran unsuccessfully for the Senate. The development sets the stage not only for a top tier Senate campaign, but also a highly competitive open 3rd Congressional District, a seat the Democrats will risk losing. |
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