Heading into tomorrow’s Georgia primary, Fox5 Atlanta sponsored a late poll (5/15-16; 522 GA likely Democratic primary voters; 515 GA likely Republican primary voters) that finds the Republicans headed toward a run-off while the May 22nd Democratic primary looks to produce an outright winner.
According to the survey results, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle leads the Republican contingent with 31% as compared to Secretary of State Brian Kemp’s 20%, and state Sen. Hunter Hill (R-Atlanta) at 14% with two others following. Since it appears no candidate will capture a majority of tomorrow’s vote, the top two Republican finishers will advance to a July 24th run-off election. For the Democrats, former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams enjoys a commanding 58-19% lead over ex-state Rep. Stacey Evans. But, Survey USA (5/10-15; 475 GA likely Democratic primary voters; 558 GA likely Republican primary voters) finds her advantage to be less dominating, 43-24%, while the GOP results are very similar to the Fox5 data: Cagle leading Kemp and Hill, 35-17-10%, respectively. --Jim Ellis Over the weekend, delegates in Virginia’s open 6th District met in convention to choose a Republican nominee to replace retiring Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R-Roanoke). The first ballot winner is state Delegate Ben Cline (R-Amherst), who captured 52% of the vote. He defeated Republican National Committeewoman Cynthia Dunbar, a former Texas Board of Education member, who scored 39% delegate support. Mr. Cline will go into the general election as the prohibitive favorite since the 6th is Virginia’s second-most Republican congressional district (Trump ‘16: 60-35%). Four Democrats are vying for the party nomination that will be decided in the June 12th primary election.
--Jim Ellis While the Kansas gubernatorial primary is not until August 7th, Remington Research went into the field to provide early numbers for the Republican nomination battle. According to their poll (5/14-15; 1,441 KS likely Republican primary voters via automated message device), Gov. Jeff Colyer, who ascended to the Governorship when incumbent Sam Brownback (R) accepted a federal appointment, has only a 29-27% slight lead over Secretary of State Kris Kobach. Though eight Republicans are in the race, it already appears the GOP primary is winnowing down to the two major candidates.
--Jim Ellis A new Lake Research Partners survey (5/13-14; 390 NM-1 registered voters by Interactive Voice Response system) finds almost a four-way tie for the open Democratic nomination. Retired law professor Antoinette Sedillo Lopez has a slight 25-23-20% lead over former US Attorney Damon Martinez and ex-New Mexico Democratic Party chairman Deb Haaland. The results mean the race is a virtual three-way tie at this point, just three weeks from the state’s June 5th primary election. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Albuquerque) is vacating the House seat to run for Governor. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a heavy favorite to hold the seat in November.
--Jim Ellis Last week it was widely reported that Maryland gubernatorial candidate Kevin Kamenetz, the Baltimore County Executive, suddenly passed away. Before his untimely death, Mr. Kamenetz had formed a ticket with former Montgomery County Councilwoman Valerie Ervin who was his choice for Lt. Governor. Under Maryland election law, Ms. Ervin is empowered to make a decision regarding continuing the campaign. She could automatically assume the top position on the ticket, withdraw the ticket from the race, or appoint a new candidate to replace the late Mr. Kamenetz.
Yesterday, Ms. Ervin announced she would continue the Kamenetz campaign and run for Governor. She then named former Baltimore School Board member Marisol Johnson as her own running mate. The Maryland primary is June 26th. Ms. Ervin is now campaigning against Prince Georges County Executive Rushern Baker, former NAACP President Ben Jealous, and state Sen. Rich Madaleno (D-Montgomery County), among others. The winner then challenges Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in the general election. --Jim Ellis Gravis Marketing released their first Indiana post-primary poll featuring US Senate nominees Joe Donnelly (D) and Mike Braun (R). According to the poll (5/10-15; 400 IN likely voters), those surveyed break 45-44% in challenger Braun’s favor. But, when pushed to make a choice the “Uncertain” respondents broke toward Sen. Donnelly 19-13% with 69% remaining as undecided. We can expect to see similar tight polls such as this one in the foreseeable future.
--Jim Ellis Earlier in the week it was reported that former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz had dropped out of the race and formed a ticket with gubernatorial candidate and former US Senate nominee Ned Lamont. Now, ex-Connecticut Veterans Affairs Commissioner Sean Connelly has also dropped out of the race and endorsed the Lamont-Bysiewicz ticket. The remaining strong gubernatorial candidates are Lamont, Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim, and businessman Guy Smith. Claiming this weekend’s Democratic Party endorsing convention is already “rigged”, Mr. Smith is qualifying for the ballot through petition signatures.
In 2006, Mr. Lamont defeated then-Sen. Joe Lieberman in the Democratic primary. But, Mr. Lieberman still entered the general election after the primary loss as an Independent, permissible under Connecticut election law, and won re-election. In 2010, Mr. Lamont ran for Governor but lost the Democratic primary to current incumbent Dan Malloy. --Jim Ellis A couple of weeks ago, former Governor and US Senator Lincoln Chafee (R/I/D) floated the idea that he might challenge Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse in this year’s Democratic primary. Yesterday, Sen. Whitehouse’s campaign released the results of their Anzalone Liszt Grove Research internal poll (5/7-14; 801 RI likely general election voters with an over-sample of 101 likely Democratic primary voters making the total primary sample size 329). According to the data, Sen. Whitehouse would defeat Mr. Chafee in a landslide, 72-14%. Within the polling sample, Sen. Whitehouse’s favorability index is 79:10% positive to negative as opposed to Mr. Chafee’s, 32:46%. Mr. Chafee has yet to announce definitively that he will run.
--Jim Ellis We have seen a number of candidates fail to qualify for the ballot around the country this year, and John Conyers III, seeking to replace his father, resigned Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit), may be the next to fall short in the signature gathering process. According to authorities at the Wayne County Elections Division, Mr. Conyers has only 880 valid nominating petition signatures from the 1,914 submitted. All candidates must submit 1,000 valid registered voter signatures from CD 13. County Clerk Cathy Garrett will make a final determination about Mr. Conyers’ ballot status later today.
The MI-13 special election is running concurrently with the general election cycle. The winner will serve the final two months of the current term along with the next full term assuming the same individual wins both the special and regular election that will be simultaneously conducted. --Jim Ellis The very tight outcome in the Allentown-Bethlehem Republican primary has been resolved. Former Olympic Gold Medalist (cycling) and Lehigh County Commissioner Marty Nothstein has won the Republican nomination and advances to the general election against new Democratic nominee Susan Wild. Mr. Nothstein’s 308-vote margin from more than 31,000 ballots cast has been confirmed. Former County Commissioner Dean Browning conceded the race and endorsed Mr. Nothstein against Ms. Wild. The winner of what is likely to be a toss-up contest will succeed retiring Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Allentown).
--Jim Ellis |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|