Former Kansas US Attorney Barry Grissom (D), who served in that position for six years of the Obama Administration, said he plans to announce his US Senate campaign on July 1st. Former one-term Rep. Nancy Boyda (D-Topeka), who was defeated for re-election in 2008, also says she is considering entering the Senate race.
Sen. Pat Roberts (R) is retiring, meaning his Kansas seat will be open in the 2020 election cycle. Republicans, however, appear to be hanging back waiting to see if US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will return to the state and run. Though Mr. Pompeo has repeatedly said he will not do so, speculation runs rampant that he will reverse his previous stance. If the Secretary does not launch a Senate campaign, we can expect 1st District Congressman Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend), who now has over $1.26 million in his congressional bank account and raised over $700,000 in first quarter 2019, to declare his candidacy. The Kansas seat should remain in the Republican column, but a party split concerning KS Secretary of State Kris Kobach after he barely won the gubernatorial nomination and did not unify the party behind his general election candidacy allowed Democrat Laura Kelly to snatch the 2018 Governor’s election. With Kobach a possible Senate candidate next year, Mr. Grissom hopes that history will repeat itself. Republican former Assemblywoman Young Kim, who lost a 52-48% race to freshman Rep. Gil Cisneros (D-Yorba Linda) after leading at the end of election night counting, looks to be gearing up for a second attempt. Ms. Kim, while not confirming she will run, just filed a new congressional campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. The move allows her to begin raising money but does not fully mean that she will become a candidate. But, all signs suggest that a re-match is likely.
Former Lt. Gov. Evelyn Sanguinetti (R), who left office when Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) was defeated in November, said she will enter the 6th District Republican primary next year, vying for the right to challenge freshman Rep. Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove).
With defeated former Congressman Peter Roskam (R) not making any moves to seek a re-match, Ms. Sanguinetti could well be the Republicans’ top recruitment choice. In Illinois, the Lt. Governor candidates run on a ticket with the gubernatorial nominee. Therefore, even though she is a former statewide office holder, Ms. Sanguinetti never stood for a major election in her own right. A Cuban from Florida who married a man of Italian descent, she did, however, win election to the Wheaton City Council prior to being selected as Mr. Rauner’s running mate. Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton (D-Salem) became the 19th official Democratic presidential candidate over the weekend and will clearly make neighboring New Hampshire, the site of the nation’s first primary, the key launching site for his long shot campaign.
Mr. Moulton is not forced to risk his congressional seat to run for President, since the Massachusetts federal primary is not until September, long after the state’s voters chooses it presidential nominee in early March. Should his presidential effort fail, which is likely, it is probable that he will face credible Democratic primary opposition for re-nomination. The Congressman was one of the group leaders attempting to deny Nancy Pelosi a return to the Speakership, and several local Democratic leaders have pledged to oppose him in 2020 because of his action. Late last week we covered an Anzalone Liszt Grove poll (released 4/18; 500 KY likely Democratic primary voters) from former state Auditor Adam Edelen that gave Attorney General Andy Beshear a comfortable 43-23-22% lead over he and state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins (D-Sandy Hook).
Now, Mr. Beshear counters, releasing his own Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group survey (4/15-18; 601 KY likely Democratic gubernatorial primary voters) that finds him holding a similar, but stronger, 44-17-16% margin despite what the Beshear campaign claims is an Edelen 5:1 media expenditure advantage when including independent group spending. The Kentucky primary is May 21st. The winner then takes on Gov. Matt Bevin (R) in what will be a competitive 2019 general election. Recently, a pair of Alabama statewide US Senate polls find Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville) strongly in the mix for the 2020 GOP nomination to challenge Sen. Doug Jones (D). But, his latest statement indicates he won’t run. According to an interview with a reporter from the local Decatur Daily news site, Rep. Brooks said, “it would take a seismic event to get me in the Senate race. As of today, I am running for the House of Representatives. And, I don’t know of any seismic event that is about to occur that will change my mind.”
Rep. Brooks placed third in the 2017 Senate special Republican primary, just failing to qualify for the runoff that former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore won, before subsequently losing to Mr. Jones in the special general. The Congressman was then diagnosed with prostate cancer and is undergoing treatment. Triton Research, polling for the Tennessee Star news site (4/13-16; 1,003 TN likely Republican primary voters), finds that former Gov. Bill Haslam is not quite a lock for the open Republican nomination as many believe. No Republican, including Mr. Haslam, has yet announced their candidacy.
According to Triton, while President Trump boasts an 88% positive rating among Republicans with Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) at 76% and new Gov. Bill Lee (R) at 73.5%, Mr. Haslam only polls 49% favorability. And, in a hypothetical pairing with freshman Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville), the former two-term state chief executive would lead only 39-30%. Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) is retiring. Despite US Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/Santa Fe) securing key endorsements such as his latest from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, New Mexico Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver (D) just filed a campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission and says to expect an announcement soon. While Rep. Lujan is favored to win the open seat party nomination and the general election to replace retiring Sen. Tom Udall (D), he is now likely drawing significant opposition.
News stories are reporting that former Vice President Joe Biden will announce his expected 2020 presidential campaign later this week. A new Change Research poll, with a large national sample (4/12-15; 2,519 likely Democratic primary voters) finds the former Vice President’s national lead dropping, however, to one percentage point, 21-20%, over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Now, closely in the third place according to this data, is South Bend (IN) Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who pulls support from 17% of the polling sample.
Freshman Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City) unseating former Rep. Mia Love (R) by 694 votes in November means he can expect a major re-election battle in what should be a safely Republican seat. Yesterday, two Republican legislators signaled that they are beginning to take steps toward entering the congressional race. State Sen. Dan McCay (R-Riverton) and state Rep. Kim Coleman (R-West Jordan) both say they are considering becoming candidates. This district figures to be in the top five of Republican conversion targets in 2020.
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