Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs) managed to survive a very difficult primary challenge from media consultant Marie Newman. The Congressman was re-nominated for an eighth term with just 51% of the district vote. His stronger performance in Cook County allowed him to capture the district majority despite losing Will County and the sliver of DuPage County to Ms. Newman. Mr. Lipinski is one of the few remaining Blue Dog Democrats, while Ms. Newman came at him hard as part of the party’s left faction. Rep. Lipinski will have little trouble in winning the general election.
Other key congressional match-ups are now set. Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Wheaton) will face climate change advocate and energy business owner Sean Casten (D) in the general election. Rep. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro/Carbondale) is paired with St. Clair County State’s Attorney Brendan Kelly (D) in two of the more competitive races in the state. --Jim Ellis Gov. Bruce Rauner barely survived his Republican primary challenge, winning a scant 52-48% victory over state Rep. Jeanne Ives (R-Wheaton). Venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker, who at least spent $65 million of his own money to capture the party nomination, won his primary with a 45-27-24% win over state Sen. Daniel Biss (D-Chicago) and businessman Chris Kennedy, the son of Robert F. Kennedy. Despite Gov. Rauner being the incumbent, his poor primary performance reveals Republican base trouble thus making Pritzker the early favorite to convert the Illinois Governor’s mansion to the Democratic column.
--Jim Ellis Word is leaking through the Mississippi media corps that Gov. Phil Bryant (R) will name his replacement for retiring Sen. Thad Cochran (R) today. Informed speculation suggests that Agriculture & Commerce Commissioner Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) will be named. If so, she will become the first woman to ever represent Mississippi in Congress.
Ms. Hyde-Smith, upon being sworn in at some point in April, will then run for the seat in November. All candidates will be placed on the November ballot with the top two advancing to a November 27th run-off election if no candidate receives majority support. The winner then serves the balance of the term, meaning he or she will be eligible to run for a full six-year term in 2020. Already, state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-Ellisville) has announced for the special election. He came close to upsetting Sen. Cochran in the 2014 Republican primary. --Jim Ellis Ohio-based Baldwin Wallace University released a poll of the upcoming Senate race (2/28-3/9; 1,011 OH registered voters), and they give Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) a 41-29% lead over Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth). If venture capitalist Mike Gibbons were the Republican nominee, Sen. Brown’s margin would be 41-31%.
The sampling period is long meaning the poll’s reliability factor is lessened, though the respondent universe size is strong. Additionally, the decided factor is a bit low considering that Sen. Brown is a two-term incumbent, which means more reliability questions. Rep. Renacci is favored to win the Republican nomination, and the general election figures to become highly competitive. --Jim Ellis The new Pennsylvania redistricting map will stand, as both a three-judge federal panel and the US Supreme Court ruled against Republican efforts to derail the state Supreme Court’s map that is sure to help Democrats.
Pennsylvania candidate filing for the new congressional district ends today, so we will have more detailed information about this situation later in the week. --Jim Ellis Gov. Phil Bryant (R) said yesterday that he will designate his appointment to replace retiring Sen. Thad Cochran (R) before the veteran incumbent actually leaves office. With state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-Ellisville) already declaring that he will become a candidate in the special election and not continue with his plan to challenge Sen. Roger Wicker in the Republican primary, Gov. Bryant says he wants the new Senator to have as much time as possible to begin preparing a campaign. Sen. Cochran says he will resign after the appropriations process is completed on or around April 1st, but we can now expect the Governor to announce his interim choice very quickly.
One prominent Republican office holder who will not be getting the appointment is Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves. The Lt. Gov. eliminated himself from Senate consideration because he desires to run in the open Governor’s race scheduled for 2019, since Mr. Bryant is ineligible to seek a third term. With Rep. Gregg Harper (R-Pearl/Jackson) and Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann (R) also out of the running, it appears that Agriculture & Commerce Commissioner Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is the leading potential appointment. --Jim Ellis A newly published Victory Research poll (Released 3/13-16; 1,204 IL voters) finds venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker holding the lead in the Democratic primary, 32-26-22%, over businessman Chris Kennedy and state Sen. Daniel Biss (D-Chicago), respectively. As people vote in today’s primary electon, it appears that Mr. Pritzker, who has spent more than $63 million of his own money in his race to date, is favored to capture the nomination and is fortunate that he has two opponents of basically equivalent strength. It appears certain that if only one were in the race, either Mr. Kennedy or Sen. Biss, the front-running Mr. Pritzker would likely lose to either of them.
The Republican numbers from the Victory poll were not released, but Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) is favored for re-nomination over state Rep. Jeanne Ives (R-Wheaton). The Governor, himself a billionaire like Mr. Pritzker, has spent a similar $57 million in his own race. This Illinois Governor’s race could become the most expensive statewide political campaign in American history. The latest estimates suggest that the combined spending for the race could exceed $300 million. For a more detailed report on the Illinois primary, see today’s BIPAC Daily Column at: https://vote.mmp2.org/syndicated/tag/bipacdaily --Jim Ellis Newly elected Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo), who won a November special election to replace resigned Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R), will likely face primary competition against the man whom convention delegates endorsed in the special election. Former state Rep. Chris Herrod, who won the nominating convention endorsement last year, filed to run again.
Because he will likely be strong in the nominating convention once more, Rep. Curtis is both participating in the convention process and announced he will circulate petitions to qualify. A candidate must receive at least 40% of the convention delegate vote to proceed to a primary. If one receives 60%, the individual is either nominated outright or advances to a primary election against only candidates who have qualified via ballot petition. Rep. Curtis is likely to win re-election, but it won’t be surprising to see him again do battle with Mr. Herrod in the Republican primary before advancing to an easy general election race. --Jim Ellis Countering Rep. Evan Jenkins’ (R-Huntington) polling release that showed him leading the Republican primary race for the right to challenge Sen. Joe Manchin (D), Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) just went public with his own internal poll that shows very different results. According to his Osage Research survey (3/13; 500 WV likely Republican primary voters), it is Mr. Morrisey who has climbed into first place, leading former Massey Energy CEO Don Blankenship and Rep. Jenkins, 24-23-17%. At the beginning of last week, Mr. Jenkins released his Harper Polling survey that found him leading with 29% support versus 27 for Mr. Blankenship, and 19% for Attorney General Morrisey.
Mr. Blankenship, recently released from prison after being convicted of mine safety violations that helped lead to the deaths of 29 individuals in a mine disaster back in 2010, has been advertising heavily in the state. The early campaign spending largely accounts for his strong standing in both polls despite his negative personal situation. The Republican primary is May 8th and expects to become a testy affair. --Jim Ellis Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-Bozeman) was elected in a May special election that drew national attention. As candidate filing closed Friday in Big Sky Country, six Democrats officially entered the June 5th plurality primary contest to challenge the new Congressman in November. Among the half-dozen contenders are former state Sen. Lynda Moss, ex-state Rep. Kathleen Williams, and attorney and author Jared Pettinato. Rep. Gianforte is favored to win a full term in the 2018 election.
--Jim Ellis |
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