Reports emanating from northern Virginia suggest that Democratic Party leaders are again trying to recruit state Senator Jennifer Wexton (D-Leesburg) to challenge Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-McLean) next year. Ms. Wexton was elected to the state Senate in a special 2014 election, after then-Senator Mark Herring (D-Loudon County) won the statewide Attorney General’s contest.
The party leaders immediately encouraged her to challenge Comstock in 2016 but she refused the overture, saying she wanted to win a full term in the state Senate. She did so easily in 2015 (57-43%). On the other hand, Congresswoman Comstock scored a hard fought 53-47% victory in November even though President Trump lost the 10th District by a full ten percentage points. Former one-term US Rep. Gwen Graham (D-Tallahassee) is expected to soon formally join the Governor’s Democratic nomination race. Ms. Graham won her congressional seat in 2014, but became a casualty of the mid-decade court ordered redistricting process and did not seek re-election. At the time of her retirement announcement the Congresswoman made it clear that she intended to run for Governor. Her plans have been put on hold due to her husband’s battle with prostate cancer, but with his recovery on track she now will resume her political activities.
Upon announcement, which could be as soon as this coming week, Ms. Graham, the daughter of former Governor and US Senator Bob Graham, will join Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum and businessman Chris King as an announced Democratic candidate. Gov. Rick Scott (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, so the open Florida Governor’s race becomes one of the country’s most important gubernatorial contests. Connecticut’s Quinnipiac University just completed a survey of the New Jersey electorate (3/9-13; 1,098 NJ registered voters) in anticipation of their 2017 open gubernatorial campaign. With Gov. Chris Christie (R) scoring a terrible 19:76% job approval index, the top Republican attempting to succeed him starts off in poor position. According to the Q-Poll data, Democratic former Ambassador Phil Murphy would top Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R) 47-25%, in an early ballot test.
Ex-Ambassador Murphy has a large lead in the Democratic primary, while Lt. Gov. Guadagno tops comedian Joe Piscopo, 28-18%. In terms of approvals, President Trump’s favorability index was a 34:59% positive to negative, while the NJ Democratic legislature recorded an even worse, 27:55%. Though Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is under federal indictment, he still fares well with the New Jersey voting populace. His favorability index is 45:34%. The state’s junior Senator, Cory Booker (D), does better. He posts a 57:31% positive rating.
The open Ohio Governor’s race figures to be one of the most important races of the 2018 election cycle. Already, the action is brisk as yet another individual announced a gubernatorial candidacy. Former state Rep. Connie Pillich (D), who was the Democratic nominee for state Treasurer in 2014, declared yesterday that she will run for Governor. She joins former US Rep. Betty Sutton (D-Copley) and state Senate Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni in the Democratic field. On the Republican side, Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor, Attorney General and former US Senator Mike DeWine, and Secretary of State Jon Husted are all gubernatorial candidates. Gov. John Kasich (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Former Secretary of State Karen Handel opens the special election race as the Republican favorite, but so far the campaign is progressing a bit differently than originally projected. The first two polls show Ms. Handel leading the group of Republicans, but not by large margins and virtually tied with Democrat Jon Ossoff in the jungle primary. Now, the Club for Growth has endorsed one of her chief GOP opponents, businessman and local city councilman Bob Gray. The polling has shown Gray moving into position as Handel’s chief GOP opponent, and the Club’s action may help to cement his status. This race has the makings of becoming a free-for-all. The jungle primary, featuring 18 candidates, is scheduled for April 18th. The top two finishers will then advance to a June 20th special general election.
Secretary of State Shantel Krebs (R) joined the forming field of candidates for what will be an open statewide contest for South Dakota’s lone US House seat. Ms. Krebs joins former Public Utilities Commissioner Dusty Johnson in the GOP race. Incumbent Rep. Kristi Noem (R-Castlewood) is an announced candidate for Governor. The seat will remain Republican, so all the action is expected to be in the GOP primary. South Dakota does have a run-off law, so if no candidate receives at least 35% of the vote the top two finishers will advance to a secondary election.
Ten-term Rep. Ron Kind (D-La Crosse), who Democrats had hoped to recruit into the Governor’s race to challenge incumbent Republican Scott Walker, says he won’t run statewide next year. Rep. Kind confirms he plans on seeking re-election to the House. Since President Trump carried the western state 3rd District in November, the open seat would have become competitive in a general election with no incumbent.
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