Amherst University, located in Manchester, NH, released a new survey for the state’s 2020 first-in-the-nation primary (2/7-15; 337 NH Democratic likely primary voters) and found that former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders are running 1-2, atop the field of ten tested candidates.
According to the results, Mr. Biden holds a 28-20% lead over Sen. Sanders. In third place is California Sen. Kamala Harris with 14%, followed by another disappointing performance from Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) who posted only 9% support in a neighboring state. Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX), Sens. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), ex-New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and former HUD Secretary Julian Castro round out the field. All of the latter group consecutively finished in mid-to-low single digits. Pennsylvania Republicans will be holding a special congressional district convention this Saturday to choose a nominee to replace resigned Rep. Tom Marino (R-Williamsport) for the May 21st special election. At least 24 Republican participants have filed with the committee for consideration as a candidate. This is one of the few times a person can run for Congress with little in the way of preliminary expenditure, so seeing a large number of aspirants is not particularly surprising.
Among the 24 are two state Representatives, Fred Keller and Jeff Wheeland, a former federal prosecutor, three county officials, a state Farm Bureau executive, a police constable, and two military veterans. Voting will continue among the selected 200+ delegates until one candidate receives a majority vote. The winner will face the already-chosen Democratic nominee, college professor and 2018 congressional nominee Marc Friedenberg. The Republican candidate will be considered the favorite in a reconfigured district that President Trump carried 66-30% in 2016. Retired Air Force officer Dave Hughes (R) has twice challenged veteran Minnesota Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes) and, with little in the way of national fanfare, has recorded vote percentages of 47 and 48 in the last two consecutive elections. Yesterday, he announced that he will return for a third campaign next year.
In 2016, Mr. Hughes spent under $20,000 for his entire campaign and his finish was credited more with President Trump racking up a 62-31% margin over Hillary Clinton in the 7th District rather than voters responding positively to the Republican congressional campaign. But, in 2018, a bad Republican electoral year, Mr. Hughes actually increased his vote percentage while spending just $250,000. Now, with Minnesota Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Delano) in charge of the National Republican Congressional Committee it is likely that MN-7, for the first time, will see some outside attention in this coming election cycle. Former Texas US Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) said yesterday he would likely make a decision about running for President or against Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) by the end of this month, though he said that date is not firm.
Most of his focus has been on running nationally but acknowledging that the Texas race is on the table suggests movement toward a Senate challenge. Though either decision will generate a great deal of political attention, he realistically would be considered an underdog for both President and the Senate in spite of the considerable media hype that typically surrounds him. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I/D-VT) has already put himself atop the money list in his first day as an official 2020 presidential candidate. It is being reported that the Sanders Campaign exceeded $6 million in campaign receipts in the 24 hours after the Vermont Senator officially entered the campaign. This amount exceeded California Sen. Kamala Harris’ $1.5 million for her first day, and obviously is far better than Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s (D-MN) initial 24 hour $1 million and Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-MA) $300,000.
Reports are flying on Capitol Hill that US Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile) will announce his US Senate candidacy later this week. Mr. Byrne has been expected to run for the Senate, and his prospects to win the Republican nomination would appear to be strong. He previously ran unsuccessfully in a statewide campaign for Governor, however, losing a 2010 GOP run-off to Robert Bentley who would go onto win the general election, but later be forced to resign from office.
The eventual Republican Senatorial nominee will face Alabama 2017 special election winner Doug Jones (D), who has already declared his intention to run for the full six-year term. The Alabama seat will serve as the Republicans’ top conversion opportunity target for the 2020 election cycle. More than three months after the votes were initially cast, the newly-constituted North Carolina Board of Elections finally began hearing the evidence of voter fraud that caused the previous board not to certify former Baptist pastor Mark Harris (R) as the official race winner. The unofficial count still finds Mr. Harris leading Democrat Dan McCready by 905 votes.
Largely, the hearing is for show. There is virtually no doubt that the Democratic majority panel will order a new election. The only real point to decide is the election schedule. Because of an election law change, the new primary will be open, meaning any legally qualified individual may run. Previously, the Board could have only called for a new election among the previous major and minor party nominees. El Cajon Mayor Bill Wells, who scored 12.9% to finish third in the 2018 jungle primary election against indicted Republican incumbent Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine), yesterday announced the formation of a new 2020 federal fundraising committee. With Rep. Hunter scheduled to face a federal trial in September on campaign finances charges, potential candidates are already swirling attempting to best position themselves if a special election occurs should he be found guilty.
In addition to Mayor Wells, Temecula Mayor Matt Rahn (R), retired Navy SEAL and former congressional candidate Larry Wilske (R), and 2018 Democratic candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) have already said they will run for the seat in the next election. Local Chicago suburban business owner and state Senator Jim Oberweis (R-North Aurora), who has lost four statewide and two congressional elections is making yet another electoral attempt, but his entrance into the 14th Congressional District race is already marred. Because, according to Sen. Oberweis, a staff member inadvertently checked the wrong box on the federal political committee form, the legal race for which he filed was the US Senate; in other words, to challenge Sen. Dick Durbin (D).
The Oberweis campaign quickly reversed course after discovering the mistake and correctly filed a FEC committee to challenge freshman Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville). Expect other Republican candidates to join the field. The party leaders are wary of Mr. Oberweis’ past losing record and desire another, fresher and presumably more electable 2020 nominee. Delivering a blistering personal attack against President Trump while saying he wants to unite America, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-D/VT) officially announced his presidential campaign via You Tube and email yesterday.
The Sanders entry means that eleven Democrats have either formally announced their campaigns or have filed a national exploratory committee. Former Vice President Joe Biden remains the major outlier at this point. He promises an announcement of his political plans sometime in March, and his decision, regardless of whether he decides to run, will have a major effect upon the overall campaign. |
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