Last month, Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley launched her Democratic primary challenge to veteran Rep. Mike Capuano (D-Somerville). The MassInc Polling Group, surveying the 7th District Democratic primary electorate for WBUR Public Radio in Boston (2/9-11; 402 MA-7 registered voters) found Rep. Capuano jumping out to an early 47-35% advantage when counting respondents who support and lean toward each candidate. Both individuals are highly rated. Rep. Capuano has a 60:7% favorability ratio, while Ms. Pressley scores a solid 42:7%.
There is a warning sign in this poll for the Congressman, however. Within the city of Boston, and Ms. Pressley holds one of the at-large seats, she leads Mr. Capuano, 46-35%. Outside of the city, the incumbent is dominant. He leads Ms. Pressley, 66-17%, among the 1/3 of the district’s constituency who reside outside of Boston. --Jim Ellis Former one-term US Rep. Charles Djou (R-Honolulu) was one of the individuals looking to enter the open 1st Congressional District race now that incumbent Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) is challenging Gov. David Ige in the Democratic primary. In an announcement yesterday, Mr. Djou said he will not become a congressional candidate in 2018, preferring to launch another run to become Mayor of Honolulu in the 2020 election.
Democrats are already fielding four candidates, including Lt. Gov. Doug Chin, state Rep. Kaniela Ing (D-Honolulu), state Senator and former congressional candidate Donna Mercado Kim (D-Aiea), and Honolulu City Councilman Ernie Martin. Republicans have yet to field a candidate. At this point, Democrats must be rated heavy favorites to retain the seat. --Jim Ellis A budding primary contest between at-large US Rep. Kristi Noem (R-Castlewood) and Attorney General Marty Jackley is underway culminating in a June 5th election, and Moore Information went into the Republican field to test the gubernatorial candidates. The survey (2/8; 300 SD likely Republican primary voters) found Ms. Noem opening with a 40-35% edge over the Attorney General. Two other candidates were tested, but neither could surpass 5% support.
This first public data suggests what most political observers have been saying: that the primary race will be close and hard fought. The eventual Republican nominee will become a prohibitive favorite to succeed Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) in the November election. Mr. Daugaard is ineligible to seek a third term. --Jim Ellis With Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) leaving this politically marginal district to run for the Senate, Democratic conversion chances are enhanced. Former state Rep. Matt Heinz (D), who lost 57-43% to Rep. McSally in 2016, is running again and brandishes a Public Policy Polling survey that suggests he would fare better in an open general election than former 1st District Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Flagstaff). Last year, after her loss to Sen. John McCain (R) in the statewide contest, Ms. Kirkpatrick re-located to Tucson and quickly jumped into the 2nd District campaign. Therefore, if Mr. Heinz is to have a chance at winning in 2018, he must first overcome the former US Representative in the Democratic primary.
According to Heinz’s data (2/8-10; 841 AZ-2 registered voters), he would lead Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce President Lea Marquez Peterson (R), by a 45-31% margin. In comparison, Ms. Kirkpatrick would lead the lone announced Republican candidate, 43-34%. But, the former nominee is considerably behind ex-Rep. Kirkpatrick in campaign resources, and he did not release early Democratic primary numbers from the survey. The latest FEC report finds the former Congresswoman holding $463,977 in her campaign account, versus only $193,117 for Mr. Heinz. --Jim Ellis Monmouth University released their latest study of the western Pennsylvania electorate with a month remaining in the 18th District special election campaign. According to the poll (2/12-14; 320 PA-18 likely special election voters), state Rep. Rick Saccone (R-Elizabeth) would lead Democrat Conor Lamb across the turnout spectrum.
Under the highest turnout model, which Monmouth describes as the “Surge” model, the Republican nominee would lead his Democratic counterpart, 49-46%. Under a “high” turnout forecast, Saccone’s edge increases to 48-44%. If voter participation drops to a low ebb, something certainly not predicted in this poll as 83% of the respondents answered that they are paying “a lot” of attention to the special election, Saccone records his best margin spread at 50-45%. Additionally, in a separate occurrence yesterday, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM) remained silent as to whether his committee will be supplying Lamb with further financial support. The special election is scheduled for March 13th. --Jim Ellis When Alabama candidate filing closed on Friday, local political observers were surprised that state Sen. Slade Blackwell (R-Birmingham) did not file for re-election and instead hopped into the Governor’s primary at the last moment. Now, he’s had second thoughts. Yesterday, just four days after entering, Sen. Blackwell announced that his is ending his fledgling gubernatorial campaign. Therefore, the state legislator will be out of elective politics beginning next year.
--Jim Ellis Signs are clearly growing that Sen. Bob Corker (R) is considering reversing his retirement decision. Staff is now confirming that the Senator is conducting meeting to assess his re-election chances, and he is even going so far as to attempt to repair his broken relationship with President Trump after the two exchanged heated words during the past few months.
For her part, Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) is beginning to rattle her own sabre, and clearly plans to stay in the Senate race regardless if Mr. Corker changes his mind. Early polling shows her to be considerably ahead of the two-term incumbent among likely Republican primary voters, so this Tennessee political situation is becoming more interesting by the day. The candidate filing deadline is April 5, with the Tennessee primary occurring August 2. --Jim Ellis In the 2016 open seat gubernatorial campaign, Republican Chris Sununu defeated Democrat Colin Van Ostern, 49-47%. Both men were members of the state’s five-member Executive Council that, among other duties, exercises a check over the Governor’s veto authority. Yesterday, Mr. Van Ostern announced that he will not challenge Gov. Sununu later this year. According to the latest survey from the University of New Hampshire, the first-term Governor was leading his former opponent, 41-31%.
New Hampshire is one of two states, neighboring Vermont being the other, which limits its Governors to two-year terms. Therefore, even though Gov. Sununu was just elected in 2016, he must stand for re-election this year. --Jim Ellis Jeff Colyer (R), recently sworn in as Governor after former incumbent Sam Brownback (R) was confirmed to his federal position, yesterday replaced himself as Lt. Governor. Mr. Colyer named businessman Tracey Mann (R) as the state’s new LG, and further announced that the latter man will join him on the Republican ticket as his running mate for the fall election. The pair must first clinch the GOP nomination in an August 7th campaign when they will face Secretary of State Kris Kobach, state Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer, ex-state Sen. Jim Barnett, and oil businessman Wink Hartman among others. Democrats are looking to former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer, ex-state Agriculture Secretary Josh Svaty, state House Minority Leader Jim Ward (D-Wichita), or state Sen. Laura Kelly (D-Topeka).
--Jim Ellis State Sen. Bob Krist yesterday announced that he will enter the Democratic gubernatorial primary in hopes of facing Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) in this year’s general election. Mr. Krist is now a former Republican, leaving the GOP to enter this race, though Nebraska state legislative races are non-partisan. The Democratic field has appeared weak to date, so Sen. Krist could prove himself viable enough to win the nomination despite just newly coming into the party. In any event, Gov. Ricketts will remain a strong favorite for re-election.
--Jim Ellis |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|