Local Salt Lake City pollster Dan Jones & Associates (2/9-21; 404 UT-4 registered voters) released another survey in their ongoing testing of the impending campaign between Rep. Mia Love (R-Saratoga Springs) and Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams (D). As has been the case in previous polls, Rep. Love maintains a lead but the results are close. According to their February release, the Congresswoman leads Mr. McAdams, 49-43%, which is almost identical to the group’s January survey that found Rep. Love up 47-42%.
--Jim Ellis Republican Jim Hagedorn (R) lost the second-closest congressional race of 2016, falling to Rep. Tim Walz (D-Mankato), 50.3 – 49.6%. Mr. Hagedorn is back for his third consecutive congressional run but, in 2018, this time the seat is open. A new poll released on Friday posts him to a robust Republican primary lead over state Sen. Carla Nelson (R-Rochester).
Harper Polling, surveying for the Hagedorn Campaign (2/19-20; 412 MN-1 likely Republican primary voters), finds the previous Republican nominee leading Sen. Nelson, 54-21%, in a hypothetical GOP primary vote. Though Minnesota candidates typically abide by the state party endorsement convention results, Sen. Nelson recently said that she would take the race to an August 14th primary should the convention delegates side with Mr. Hagedorn. At this point, it looks like Jim Hagedorn is well on his way to capturing the Republican nomination no matter the electoral format. With Rep. Walz running for Governor, this open seat general election campaign will be highly competitive. --Jim Ellis A new Goucher Poll (2/12-17; 800 MD adults; 658 MD registered voters) finds Sen. Ben Cardin (D) crushing convicted US spy Chelsea Manning in the upcoming June 26th Democratic primary. According to the Goucher data, Sen. Cardin begins the race with a 61-17% advantage, which is likely an insurmountable margin for the flawed challenger to overcome. Sen. Cardin is seen as a sure bet to be re-nominated and win a third term in the general election.
--Jim Ellis Yesterday, we reported upon venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker’s Global Strategy Group poll that found him holding a 37-23-21% lead over businessman Chris Kennedy, son of former Attorney General and US Senator Robert F. Kennedy, and state Sen. Daniel Biss (D-Chicago). Now, Sen. Biss released his ALG Research survey (2/6-11; 500 IL likely Democratic primary voters), which presents results that aren’t too different from Pritzker’s release.
According to ALG, Mr. Pritzker leads Sen. Biss and Mr. Kennedy, 32-24-24%. Thus, we have two candidate polls both showing the race getting tighter despite heavy spending from Pritzker, but with the leader maintaining a significant edge. The Illinois primary is March 20th, so this campaign is just entering the prime time phase. --Jim Ellis A new Anzalone Liszt Grove survey, now known as ALG Research (2/11-15; 500 CA-25 likely jungle primary voters) finds Rep. Steve Knight (R-Palmdale) placing first in the upcoming June 5th jungle primary with 43% voter preference. Attorney Bryan Caforio (D), who lost to Mr. Knight 53-47% in the 2016 general election despite Hillary Clinton carrying the seat by almost seven percentage points, places second with 19%. Non-profit group executive Katie Hill (D) is next with 10%, followed by geologist Jess Phoenix (D) at 7 percent. Under California election law, the top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation advance to the general election.
This poll suggests that we will see the anticipated re-match between Messrs. Knight and Caforio this November. --Jim Ellis The same Goucher Poll cited above in the Maryland Senate section also tested the upcoming Governor’s race. Incumbent Republican Larry Hogan, despite representing one of America’s most Democratic states, still enjoys a strong 61% positive favorability rating. In the race for the Democratic nomination, three candidates are bunched near the top, but no one with clear strong support.
Prince Georges County Executive Rushern Baker is first with 19%, followed by Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz who registers 12% backing. Trailing both is former NAACP president Ben Jealous at 10 percent. No other candidate even reaches the 4% plateau. Clearly, this Democratic primary contest is wide open. --Jim Ellis State Assemblyman Tony Bucco (R-Boonton Township) announced yesterday that he will not enter the open northern New Jersey congressional race that House Appropriations Committee chairman Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-Morristown) is vacating. Instead, Mr. Bucco endorsed fellow Assemblyman Jay Webber (R-Parsippany). In another part of the district, however, investment banker Antony Ghee, with the support of key Republican Party leaders in Passaic and Essex County, announced that he would run. The 11th District race is expected to be hotly contested in November. Two Democrats appear as the leading candidates in their party primary. Attorney Mikie Sherrill and businesswoman Tamara Harris have each amassed a sizable campaign treasury.
--Jim Ellis The Global Strategy Group conducted a new poll for venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker (2/9-13; 802 IL likely Democratic primary voters), who has already invested $56 million into his gubernatorial campaign. According to their results, Mr. Pritzker holds a 37-23-21% lead over businessman Chris Kennedy, son of former Attorney General and US Senator Robert F. Kennedy, pictures of whom he is featuring in his media ads, and state Sen. Daniel Biss (D-Chicago).
Despite Mr. Pritzker’s heavy spending and enduring regular attacks from Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner, who is also putting millions into electronic advertising in the early going, the Democratic race is tightening as the candidates move into the final four weeks before the early primary. The election is scheduled for March 20th. Though Mr. Rauner is the incumbent, his poor favorability ratings coupled with Illinois’ normal Democratic voting patterns, make this state a key conversion opportunity for a party that holds every major statewide office with the exception of Governor. --Jim Ellis Two organizations that were prominent in urging the state Supreme Court to overturn the Pennsylvania congressional districts now may file lawsuits over the replacement map. Representatives from both Common Cause and the NAACP are objecting to minorities being packed into one Philadelphia district when they currently have majority minority status in two under the invalidated plan.
The new map creates one western downtown Philadelphia African American district (PA-3) that Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) will claim, but the eastern downtown CD (PA-2) is likely to elect a white Democrat. Already, Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Philadelphia) has said he will run there. The two organizations apparently believe the new draw violates the Voting Rights Act since what is now the new 2nd District was retrogressed in terms of minority population. --Jim Ellis Prominent oil businessman and former congressional candidate Wink Hartman (R) withdrew from the Republican gubernatorial primary yesterday and endorsed Secretary of State Kris Kobach. The two, and several others, are opposing new Gov. Jeff Colyer (R), who replaced former Gov. Sam Brownback (R) who accepted a federal appointment. Mr. Hartman said he is leaving the race in order to help avoid splitting the primary vote that would allow Gov. Colyer to win the nomination with only plurality support.
--Jim Ellis |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
April 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|