Montana Attorney General Tim Fox (R), who for several years was the state’s lone Republican office holder, yesterday announced as expected that he will run for Governor next year. With incumbent Steve Bullock (D) ineligible to seek a third term and seriously considering entering the presidential campaign realm, the door is wide open for Mr. Fox to make a strong bid to attain the Governor’s office.
Secretary of State Corey Stapleton (R) is already in the Governor’s race, so AG Fox will face significant GOP primary opposition. Democrats will attempt to field strong candidates both for Governor and to challenge Sen. Steve Daines (R) as the latter man seeks re-election for the first time. Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney waits in the wings as the leading potential Democratic candidate. Being one of two states that limit their gubernatorial terms to only two years – neighboring Vermont is the other – New Hampshire state chief executives are always running. Late this week, Gov. Chris Sununu (R) has drawn his first major Democratic challenger.
Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky (D), a strong Bernie Sanders backer in 2016, made public through an email message to supporters that he will enter the Democratic gubernatorial primary in hopes of winning the opportunity of challenging the two-term Republican Governor. As always in New Hampshire, any statewide race has the potential of being decided by just a few votes. In November, Gov. Sununu was re-elected with a closer-than-expected 53-46% margin. Though Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy has never indicated that he would become a presidential candidate in 2020, his name often surfaced as an individual looking to make a run for the national office. Yesterday, Sen. Murphy addressed the rumors and stated flatly that he will not be a candidate for President next year, saying that he will continue to fulfill the duties of his current office.
In a strong March 2018 Democratic primary challenge, media consultant Marie Newman came within two percentage points of denying veteran Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs/Chicago Suburbs) re-nomination. According to a public statement made yesterday, it appears highly likely that Ms. Newman will return for a re-match with the eight-term Congressman early next year.
Many believed Mr. Lipinski did not respond to the 2018 challenge quickly enough, thus partially explaining the close margin. It is clear that he will not repeat this mistake in 2020. Still, with strength for Newman coming from the party’s leftward faction, centrist Democrat Lipinski, who draws significant business organization support including that of BIPAC, will again find himself embroiled in a competitive primary campaign. Former Rep. Karen Handel (R-Roswell), who won the most expensive race in history in a 2017 special election but lost the regular vote to current Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) by less than a percentage point, says she is seriously considering running again in 2020. Before her election to Congress, Ms. Handel served as Georgia Secretary of State and ran a close race for Governor.
Last week, state Sen. Brandon Beach (R-Alpharetta) filed a federal financial campaign committee that will allow him to begin raising funds. The 6th District promises to be a top Republican conversion target in 2020, and it appears will also host an active GOP primary campaign. Georgia’s 7th District race produced the closest raw vote margin in the country, a spread of just 419 votes between veteran Rep. Rob Woodall (R-Lawrenceville) and former state Senate committee staff director Carolyn Bourdeaux (D). We have not heard whether Ms. Bourdeaux will make another run in 2020, but if she does the former nominee will not have a free ride in the Democratic primary. Yesterday, attorney and Democratic activist Marqus Cole announced that he plans to fight for the party nomination in the 7th CD next year.
South Bend, IN Mayor Pete Buttigieg announced the formation of a presidential exploratory committee yesterday, quite a jump from being a small city mayor all the way to running for President. At this point, Mr. Buttigieg must be viewed as a minor candidate, but with millennial and LGBTQ constituencies serving as a potential political base, the South Bend Mayor could have access to both a financial and vote base.
It is unlikely that his campaign would forge to the front of a pack of candidates loaded with more experienced politicians, but Buttigieg’s exploratory efforts are worthy of some attention. Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, out of office for less than a month after serving two terms, says he will decide by March about whether to enter the presidential campaign. Mr. Hickenlooper has been on the fringes of the national campaign for months and may find himself dropping hopelessly behind if he doesn’t begin to take action very soon.
A North Carolina Superior Court judge denied Republican congressional candidate Mark Harris’ legal move to be declared the winner of the disputed 9th District election. The presiding judge indicated that the state Board of Elections is investigating the voter fraud allegations and that declaring either candidate a winner would be premature. The investigation has dragged on since Election Day. A new state Board of Elections will be in place beginning in February. The most probable result is calling a new election, likely to coincide with the state’s municipal primary in May.
Soon after announcing that she plans to run for President, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Kailua) has drawn a serious Democratic challenger for her congressional seat. State Sen. Kai Kahele (D-Hilo) announced that he will run for the 2nd District House seat whether or not Ms. Gabbard seeks re-election in 2020. Under Hawaii law, an individual can simultaneously run for President and another office.
Mr. Kahele was originally appointed to the state Senate when his father, veteran state legislator Gil Kahele, passed away. Kai Kahele then won the Democratic nomination later in 2016, and the general election in November of that year. This potential contest could well become a serious political challenge. |
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