Senate - 9/4/24

Ohio: Sen. Brown’s Lead May Not Be So Secure: A new On Point/Red Eagle/SoCal Strategies survey has been released for the Ohio races (8/31-9/1; 600 OH likely voters; online) and the results are consistent with what has been presented for weeks. In the presidential campaign, former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by nine percentage points, 52-43%. Yet, the Senate contest again produces a much different conclusion.

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) leads businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by five points, 50-45%. Since the end of May, Sen. Brown has led in six consecutive polls that six different polling firms conducted. His leads have been consistent: eight, five, six, four, five, and five points even though Mr. Trump has led in each survey.

The last time Sen. Brown was on the ballot, in 2018, a total of eight polls were conducted for the race featuring the incumbent and then-US Rep. Jim Renacci (R). Sen. Brown led in each poll and his average advantage was just over 13 percentage points. Yet, his winning margin was only six points. Therefore, if polling history repeats itself in 2024, this race may prove closer than the current data suggest.

Pennsylvania: Race Getting Tighter: Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D-PA) has clearly been leading his race for re-election, but the most recent polls find the contest becoming much closer, just as former President Trump has been taking a small lead in most of these same Pennsylvania polls.
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After posting consistent double-digit leads through July and early August, the month’s mid to latter periods has yielded different results. Since mid-August, ten polls have been released of this Senate race, and Sen. Casey’s mean average margin has dropped to 4.5 points. In July, his advantage through 11 released polls was almost nine percentage points. While the Trump numbers have improved in recent PA polling, so has Republican Senate challenger David McCormick’s standing.