New Hampshire: Again, Beyond Error Margin: Though the new Suffolk University survey for the Boston Globe newspaper (9/23-26; 500 NH likely general election voters) shows Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) holding a lead well beyond the polling margin of error over retired General Don Bolduc (R) as do three other post-primary pollsters, their 50-41% margin is a touch closer than some of the other results.
While Republican national political organizations continuing to spend heavily will likely draw Gen. Bolduc closer to Sen. Hassan, it is unlikely that her ballot test advantage can be overcome before election day. Therefore, the analysis that the GOP strategists will pull their media buy from the New Hampshire race and transfer it to other more winnable contests remains valid. North Carolina: The “Three-Way” Tie: The North Carolina Senate race has been tight for weeks, but now we see three separate pollsters all finding the race status languishing in a flat tie. The Cygnal polling organization (9/24-26; 650 NC likely voters), Meredith College (9/20-23; 731 NC likely voters), and the Global Strategy Group (9/12-20; 800 NC likely voters) all project tied results. Cygnal sees Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance) and former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D) each attracting 44% of the vote. Meredith College finds both with 41%, while GSG’s total is 46% apiece. Obviously, the North Carolina Senate race is one of the closest in the nation with just over a month remaining and early voting on the cusp of beginning. Pennsylvania: Dr. Oz Moving Closer: A trio of new surveys find Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) coming within close range of Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) in their expensive battle over what is one of the most important Senate contests in the nation. Fox News (9/22-26; 827 PA likely general election voters) finds Dr. Oz pulling to within four points of Mr. Fetterman, 48-44%. Franklin & Marshall College (9/19-25; 517 PA likely general election voters) and Insider Advantage (9/23-24; 550 PA likely general election voters) also see similar margins. The latter two arrive at identical ballot test results: Fetterman leading 45-42%. With early voting just days away from beginning since the ballots have already been mailed to the registered voters, Dr. Oz may be making his move at precisely the right time. Comments are closed.
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