Senate – 9/26/24

Nebraska:  Survey USA Data Confirms Dead Heat:  Clearly the most surprising Senate race lies in Nebraska.  Again, we see another poll that finds Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in a toss-up race with Independent Dan Osborn while Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) enjoys an 18 point advantage and former President Trump tops Vice President Kamala Harris with a 16 percent margin before the same sampling universe.

According to the new Survey USA poll conducted for the Osborn campaign (9/20-23; 558 NE likely voters; live interview & online) Mr. Osborn actually ticks ahead of Sen. Fischer, 45-44%.  Sen. Fischer’s problem is with women, where the cell segment numbers find her trailing 37-52%, even when both Sen. Ricketts and Mr. Trump have at least plurality support within the same segment.  More attention will be paid to this race in the closing weeks.

Fox News:  Releases Senate Ratings:  The Fox News political division released their current ratings of the 2024 US Senate contests yesterday, and for the most part they are aligned with other rating data.  The outlier on their list is calling the Nevada race a toss-up.  There is no current data suggesting such, as Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leads in all published polls and actually had the biggest average lead, nine points, of any competitive Senate race according to the new FiveThirtyEight Senate ratings.

The Fox data shows Republicans gaining West Virginia and Montana, which would give the party a 51 seat majority.  The other race they rank as a toss-up is Ohio, and that does appear to be the case.  Aside from Montana and West Virginia, the Ohio contest featuring Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and businessman Bernie Moreno (R) is the one that could be closing in Republicans’ favor.

Spending:  Outside Groups Evening Spending Divide:  Recently, we have seen announcements of large independent expenditures targeted for the Maryland Senate race to help Republican Larry Hogan, just as the Congressional Leadership Fund is beginning to expend major sums in House races.

While it has been common knowledge that Democrats are outraising and outspending their Republican counterparts, it appears the outside organizations running independent expenditures are cutting into the Democrats’ dollar advantage.
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Through the second quarter, all Senate candidates spent an aggregate sum over $187 million, and 65% of that expenditure figure came from Democratic campaigns.  Outside organizations, which have already spent a whopping $492 million, have delivered a majority of their funds, 56% worth, either to support Republican candidates or attack Democratic contenders.  Thus, the outside expenditure network, while still providing substantial support for Democratic candidates, has helped to balance the expenditure scale  and bring the Republican side to financial parity.