Polling: Already Conflicts: Expect to see a plethora of polling released into the public domain for the 2024 presidential contest, and much of it will conflict with other data. Already, such a pattern has begun. Since the election, we’ve seen three Republican presidential primary polls being released.
YouGov, for the Economist periodical (11/13-15; 432 US adults; online) posts Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to a seven-point, 46-39% advantage over former President Donald Trump. A largely unfamiliar pollster, called Seven Letter Insight (11/10-15; 542 US likely Republican primary voters) sees a similar result, Gov. DeSantis topping the former President, 34-26%. Morning Consult, polling for Politico, sees a much different result. Their survey (11/10-14; 1,983 US registered voters) finds Mr. Trump with a sizable 47-33-5% result over Gov. DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence.
None of these polls should be taken particularly seriously. All are national polls, two of which have small samples and are not reflective of Republican primary voters casting ballots in state primaries.
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