House - 10/1/24

CA-45: Crypto Money Switch: The Fairshake Super PAC, which is funded from individuals with crypto currency interests and backs candidates of both parties who support alternative currency objectives, has seen a change in how some of its California money is being spent. Recently, Fairshake, as is being reported, has shifted approximately $1 million in advertising money from Rep. Mike Garcia’s (R-Santa Clarita) northern Los Angeles County district to that of Orange County GOP Rep. Michelle Steel. 

Recent polling has given Democratic challenger Derek Tran a slight lead over Rep. Steel, but within the polling margin of error. The same is happening in the Garcia race, however, which makes the Fairshake move a curious one.

NH-1: Race Tightens: The Cygnal polling group, surveying for the National Republican Congressional Committee (9/26-28; 406 NH-1 likely voters; live interview and text), sees a much closer 1st District congressional race than did polls conducted directly after the late September 10th primary election. The Cygnal data release found Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) leading former Executive Councilor and ex-state Senator Russell Prescott (R) by only a four-point margin, 46-42%. 

While other polling showed the open Governor’s race as a dead heat, the Cygnal poll finds former Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) topping ex-Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) with a 10-point margin, 49-39%. The 1st District is the more Republican of the state’s two CDs.  The generic question within this same sampling universe and pertaining to the congressional race found the two parties tied.
 
Though this is a positive poll for the Republicans, Rep. Pappas should still be regarded as the favorite for re-election. We can expect studies conducted closer to November to reveal a larger Democratic lead. In any event, all of the New Hampshire elections will be decided on election day since this is one of three states that has no early voting program.