It appears that strategists in both parties have reached the conclusion that attorney and Naval Academy graduate Mikie Sherrill (D) is going to convert the northern New Jersey congressional seat from which veteran Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-Morristown) is retiring. But, we again see another released poll that shows the race closing to within the margin of error.
According to the new Monmouth University survey (10/3-7; 356 NJ-11 likely voters), Ms. Sherrill is leading Assemblyman Jay Webber (R) by a 48-44% spread under a standard midterm turnout model. Accounting for what many believe will be a Democratic “surge” turnout model, screening for such on this poll yields Sherrill a 50-43% margin. Under a “low turnout” model, which few believe will materialize, Sherrill’s advantage drops to 48-45%. With a month to go, this campaign, quiet for weeks, may begin to attract some outside involvement.
The Rundown Blog
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