Yesterday, we covered the Marist College media poll of the New York City open Democratic mayoral primary (6/3-9; 876 NYC likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) that projected Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams eventually leading the group of 13 Democratic candidates vying to succeed term-limited Mayor Bill de Blasio (D).
Two more polls are reporting slightly differing results. The Public Opinion Strategies (POS) survey (6/9-13; 500 NYC potential Democratic primary voters; live interview) returns numbers that are similarly close to Marist’s. With the large field and the tight spread among the candidates, we can expect perhaps more than ten rounds of counting in the ranked-choice system that is being used for this election.
The POS survey agrees that former NYC Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia, civil rights activist Maya Wiley and former presidential candidate Andrew Yang together with Mr. Adams form the top tier of contenders. At the end of the laborious ranked-choice process, POS, like Marist, finds the race evolving into a two-way battle between Mr. Adams and Ms. Garcia that tilts toward the former.
Change Research (6/11-14; 822 NYC likely Democratic primary voters; online) also found a compatible result in their most recent poll, though they project a different winner at the end of the ranked-choice process. Change sees Ms. Garcia edging Mr. Adams in an 11th counting round by a scant 51-49% split.
The closeness of these three polls suggests a wild finish in the campaign’s final days with the four top candidates closely bunched. How voters use the ranked-choice system and whom they select as their latter choices could make the ultimate difference. Election day is June 22nd.
The Rundown Blog
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