A new small-sample Emerson College survey of the Iowa Democratic Caucus (3/21-24; 249 IA likely Democratic Caucus participants) uncovers several surprising data points. First, former Vice President Joe Biden’s Iowa lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has dropped to just one percentage point, 25-24%.
Second, and perhaps the biggest surprise, is South Bend, IN Mayor Pete Buttigieg moving all the way from obscurity into third place with 11% preference, surpassing Sens. Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), who post 10 and 9%, respectively. A third unexpected result is former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) dropping all the way to seventh place with just 5% support.
Because the sample size is extremely small, the error factor in this particular poll is high so more data is needed to verify these conclusions.
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