OR-5: Getting Closer:
The Democratic survey research firm Global Strategy Group, polling for the 314 Action super PAC (9/1-8; 400 OR-5 likely general election voters) finds Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who defeated Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Canby) in the May primary election, leading businesswoman and former local mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R), by a tight 41-38% margin. GSG finds the district statistics even closer, however. They see a Democratic partisan edge of just one percentage point, even though the party has a five-point voter registration advantage. In terms of the generic congressional vote, the Republicans have a one-point lead. Under various turnout models according to the GSG research, the race changes. If the turnout model is closer to what was found in the New Jersey and Virginia Governors’ races (2021), a Biden +5 model, the congressional race becomes a dead heat at 40-40%. Under both a 2014 and 2020 turnout model (Biden +10), McLeod-Skinner would establish a 42-38% spread. The trouble for Ms. McLeod-Skinner, in a district that slightly leans Democratic, is that she doesn’t reach beyond the low 40s under any turnout model. This suggests that Ms. Chavez-DeRemer has serious upset potential. PA-8: Dead Heat Developing: In what is appearing to be a classic example of a Democratic incumbent claiming independence but seeing Republican forces producing stats showing total compliance with the Biden agenda, the people of Pennsylvania’s northeast 8th Congressional District are dividing evenly. The Republican polling entity, Cygnal, surveying for the Jim Bognet campaign (9/6-8; 440 PA-8 likely general election voters), finds the two candidates, Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) and Mr. Bognet, tied at 48-48%. At a R+8 partisan rating according to the FiveThirtyEight polling organization, PA-8 is the second most Republican district in the country that elects a Democrat to the House. Comments are closed.
|
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
April 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|