House - 8/30/24

​Nevada: All Four Districts Tested: As part of the Emerson College polling series for the Hill newspaper, the Nevada Senate poll also tested each of the state’s four congressional districts. Because this was a statewide survey, only one of the polls exceeded 300 respondents, which is typically the minimum number required for a reliable congressional district survey. Still, with samples between 280 and 291 respondents, the polls are all on the cusp of statistical credibility.

The results find all four incumbents, three Democrats and one Republican, posting double digit leads over their general election opponents. The closest of the contests is ironically in what is thought to be the most Democratic of the Las Vegas seats. 

In the North Las Vegas anchored 4th District, Rep. Steven Horsford (D) leads former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee (R), 40-30%. Reps. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City), Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas), and Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) all hold leads between 13 (Lee) and 31 (Amodei) points. The polling results suggest that all four incumbents will be returned to office in November.

VA-7: Virtual Tie: A just released poll from early August is the first we’ve seen in the open VA-7 general election campaign. The survey, from Ragnar Research for Republican Derrick Anderson’s campaign (8/4-6; 400 VA-7 likely voters; live interview) sees retired Army Lt. Col. Eugene Vindman (D) clinging to a one point, 42-41%, edge over attorney and Afghan War veteran Anderson.
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In a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+2, and the Down Ballot data organization ranks as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference, we can expect to see several more polls released here in the coming weeks.