Governor – 9/27/24

Indiana:  Closer Than Expected:  The Republicans strength in the Hoosier State suggested that this year’s open Governor’s race would not be particularly close.  It still may end that way, but a new GBAO survey, conducted for the Democratic Governors Association (9/19-22; 600 IN likely voters; live interview & text) currently finds a close ballot test result.

Despite former President Donald Trump leading the presidential race by ten percentage points according to this Indiana poll, Sen. Mike Braun (R) maintains only a tepid advantage over former Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick (D), 44-41%.  The poll suggests that Sen. Braun is weak among Republicans, garnering only 80% support within his own party.  Ms. McCormick, according to this data, also has the advantage with Independents by a 42-32% clip. 

The previously released survey, from Emerson College (9/12-13; 1,000 IN likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) found Sen. Braun holding a much more substantial eleven point lead, 45-34%.

North Carolina:  Stein Pulling Away:  Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson’s recent highly publicized controversy pertaining to past comments and actions is taking its toll.  Attorney General Josh Stein (D) is now pulling away from Lt. Gov. Robinson in what was once a close race. 
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A series of four polls from Emerson College, Victory Insights, the New York Times/Siena College, and Marist College, all conducted between September 15-24, with sample sizes ranging from 600 to 1,348, projects Mr. Stein leading the Governor’s race by 8, 5, 10, and 11 points, consecutively.  As Mr. Robinson’s problems continue to mount, the race moves toward Mr. Stein clinching victory.  Expect the Democrats to retain control of the Tar Heel State Governor’s mansion.  Two-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.