It is probable that the winner of the June 30th Republican primary will succeed retiring Gov. Gary Herbert (R) in November. The primary outcome became a bit more clouded yesterday when Suffolk University released its survey for the Salt Lake Tribune (6/4-7; 500 UT likely Republican primary voters).
According to Suffolk, Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox’s lead over former Governor and US Ambassador Jon Huntsman has shrunk to just two percentage points, 32-30. In third position is former state House Speaker Greg Hughes at 14% support, and ex-Utah Republican Party chairman Thomas Wright trailing with 8% preference. It appears this primary race will be a dash to the political finish line between the top two contenders at the end of the month. Pollster Scott Rasmussen conducted a survey for the Utah Deseret News (5/25-31; 494 UT likely Republican primary voters) and projects the race to replace retiring Gov. Gary Herbert (R) getting closer. The new data finds Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox maintaining the Republican primary lead, but his margin has now shrunk to 30-23% over former Governor and US Ambassador Jon Huntsman, while former state House Speaker Greg Hughes is gaining significant momentum. The latter man has risen from low single digits to 19% and has a chance to force a three-way race for the June 30th primary. The Republican primary winner likely becomes a prohibitive favorite for the Governor’s mansion in the November election.
Y2 Analytics, polling for the Utah Policy Center and KUTV Channel 2, finds former NFL football player and Utah businessman Burgess Owens leading the Republican field for the June 30th primary election. The poll, however, has a high error rate of over 8% because the sample segment, 148 likely Republican primary voters drawn from a statewide general election sample of 1,099 Utah likely voters, is extremely small.
That being said, Mr. Owens, who had a long pro football career with the New York Jets and Oakland Raiders, leads former radio talk show host Jay Mcfarland, state Rep. Kim Coleman (R-West Jordan), and banker Trent Christensen, 36-28-23-13%, respectively. The eventual Republican nominee faces freshman Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City) in the general election. Lawsuits from candidates attempting to convince a court to lower the number of petition signatures required to obtain ballot position have now been decided, and the two candidates who have been ruled disqualified, businessman Jeff Burningham and businesswoman Jan Garbett, will not pursue any further legal remedies.
Therefore, the Utah Republican gubernatorial ballot is now set and will feature Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox, former Governor and US Ambassador Jon Huntsman, former state House Speaker Greg Hughes, and ex-Utah Republican Party chairman Thomas Wright. The primary election is June 30th, and the winner faces Democratic nominee Chris Peterson, a law professor who was previously nominated in convention. Three-term Gov. Gary Herbert (R) is retiring. The Utah state Republican and Democratic virtual nominating conventions were held over the weekend, and we now have contenders for the open 1st District primary that is scheduled for June 30th. Rep. Rob Bishop (R-Brigham City) is retiring after nine terms but will still be on the ballot as former Utah Republican Party chairman Thomas Wright’s running mate for Lt. Governor. Mr. Wright faces Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox, former Governor and US Ambassador Jon Huntsman, and ex-state House Speaker Greg Hughes in the gubernatorial primary.
In the congressional race, the convention delegates voted former state Agriculture Commissioner and ex-state legislator Kerry Gibson and retired foreign service officer Barry Moore into the Republican primary. Already qualified through the petition signature process were Davis County Commissioner Bob Stevenson and Kaysville Mayor Katie Witt. Therefore, we will see a four-way GOP primary at the end of June. For the Democrats, the convention delegates sent Shoshone Indian Tribe chairman Darren Perry and vocation rehabilitation administrator Jamie Cheek into the primary election. No one used the petition signature process on the Democratic side. The GOP winner will be the prohibitive favorite in November from this 50-22% Trump district. Democratic convention delegates gave almost 90% of their votes to freshman Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City), who defends his congressional seat for the first time. By rule, the convention sends only one candidate to the primary election if the individual’s vote total exceeds 60 percent. Since no one qualified via petition signature, Rep. McAdams is automatically re-nominated.
A total of four Republicans will be on the June 30th ballot for what will be a highly competitive general election campaign. State Rep. Kim Coleman (R-West Jordan) and businessman and former NFL football player Burgess Owens advance to the primary ballot from the convention process. Mr. Owens also qualified through petition signatures. Qualifying only through petitions were radio talk show host Jay Mcfarland and non-profit organization CEO Trent Christensen. The Republican primary election winner then advances to face Rep. McAdams in November. Utah Republicans and Democrats conducted their virtual nominating conventions over the weekend and we now have a Republican primary slate and a Democratic nominee.
The convention delegates sent Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox and former state House Speaker Greg Hughes to the Republican primary after five rounds of voting. Former Governor and US Ambassador Jon Huntsman, who was eliminated in the convention’s second round, and ex-Utah Republican Party chairman Thomas Wright have qualified for the primary through the petition signature option, however. The winner of the four-candidate June 30th primary election will face law professor Chris Peterson who captured 88% of the convention vote and clinched outright the Democratic nomination. Republican Gov. Gary Herbert is retiring. Additionally, Gov. Herbert signed emergency legislation on Friday converting the Utah June 30th primary to an all-mail format. There will be no in-person voting for this primary. We’re soon going to learn much more about the Utah Governor’s race. The Republicans are in their virtual convention as delegates are voting online for candidates running in various campaigns. Under Utah nominating procedure, the parties meet in convention and send candidates to the ballot. If a candidate receives 60% of the delegate vote, he or she is the only candidate who will advance to the primary. If no one receives 60%, then the top two finishing candidates will qualify. The other way to gain primary ballot access is through the petition process, but candidates have the option of participating in both the convention and filing petition signatures.
Former Gov. Jon Huntsman, Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox, and ex-Utah Republican Party chairman Thomas Wright are the only candidates who are both gathering petition signatures and participating in the convention. The remainder, businessman Jeff Burningham, ex-state House Speaker Greg Hughes, Salt Lake County Council chair Aimee Winder Newton, and conservative activist Jason Christensen are going through the convention process only, meaning many, if not all of these contenders, will be eliminated on Saturday. The online voting will continue through Saturday afternoon, with the results announced that evening. News stories broke in late March that former Gov. Jon Huntsman’s campaign submitted invalid petition signatures to the degree that more than one-third of the total were rejected, putting his campaign in a major hole since the qualification deadline was fast approaching. Utah has a high petition signature requirement of 28,000, and Huntsman’s campaign was scrambling when finding they were more than 11,000 names short of the bare minimum with time elapsing and the state shut down due to Coronavirus precautions. Yesterday, Utah state election officials confirmed that the former Governor has qualified for the primary ballot regardless of what happens at the April 25th virtual Utah Republican nominating convention.
It is likely that Mr. Huntsman and Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox advance to the June 23rd Republican primary from the convention. While early polling favored Mr. Huntsman, recent data suggests that Mr. Cox has assumed the lead. Former state House Speaker Greg Hughes and businessman Jeff Burningham may also be on the ballot, but they will likely have to qualify only through the signature route as opposed to obtaining at least 40% at the virtual state convention. The Utah Policy political blog released the results of their Y2 Analytics commissioned poll (3/23-30; 641 UT likely Republican primary voters) that finds Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox pulling substantially ahead of former Gov. Jon Huntsman for the state’s upcoming open Republican gubernatorial primary election scheduled for June 23rd. The new numbers now show Mr. Cox holding a 40-33% lead over Ex-Gov. Huntsman with former state House Speaker Greg Hughes moving up to 16% support.
Mr. Huntsman has been trending downward in the past few weeks since forging into the lead once he formally announced his candidacy. On the positive front for him, Sen. Mike Lee (R), his former General Counsel, announced his endorsement for Mr. Huntsman. Three-term Gov. Gary Herbert (R), who ironically replaced Mr. Huntsman when the latter man was appointed US Ambassador to China, is retiring. |
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