With former Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-Tulsa) accepting a position in the Trump Administration and resigning from Congress, the Tulsa-anchored 1st Congressional District is vacant. Attracting a field of five Republicans and five Democratic candidates for the safe Republican seat, the June 26th primary produced a secondary Republican run-off election featuring former Tulsa County District Attorney Tim Harris and businessman Kevin Hern.
Now, as the August 28th run-off is now less than one month away, a new Newson6-Oklahoma Sooner Poll (7/24-29; 811 OK-1 likely Republican run-off voters) finds Mr. Harris posting a 38-26% advantage over Mr. Hern. The original primary election yielded a 27-23% Harris-Hern first and second place finish, which advanced both into the run-off. For the Democrats, attorney Tim Gilpin and oil business analyst Amanda Douglas are also embroiled in a run-off election, but no polling numbers were released for this contest. The new 9News (Oklahoma City)/Sooner Poll (7/18-20; 483 OK likely GOP run-off voters) finds the two Republican run-off participants, Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett and mortgage banker Kevin Stitt, in a dead heat, tied at 38% apiece. In the primary, Cornett placed first in a field of ten candidates with 29% of the vote. Mr. Stitt placed second with 24%, thus both advanced to the run-off election because no one reached majority support. The winner of the August 28th contest moves into the general election against former Attorney General Drew Edmondson, who won the Democratic nomination outright on June 26th. Gov. Mary Fallin (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
The Sooner Poll/News on 6 [Tulsa]; News 9 [Oklahoma City] (3/14-22; 557 OK likely voters; 291 OK likely Republican primary voters; 224 OK likely Democratic primary voters via Interactive Voice Response device) conducted a statewide survey about the present teacher strike and also asked questions about the impending open Governor’s race. The sample sizes for both the Republican and Democratic fields are too small to be given high reliability ratings, but the results are interesting, nonetheless.
On the Republican side, Oklahoma City Mayor and former congressional candidate Mick Cornett has the slightest of leads over Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb, 22-21%, with the other four candidates all posting support numbers below 10%. On the Democratic side, Attorney General and frequent statewide candidate Drew Edmondson has a 34-13% advantage over former state Sen. Connie Johnson (D-Oklahoma City). Ms. Johnson served for 33 years in the legislature. The eventual Republican nominee will be favored in the general election, but education funding, in particular, has become a major issue that could cut against the GOP candidate. This race merits attention. --Jim Ellis When he first ran for Congress in 2012, Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-Tulsa), pledged to serve only three terms. He intended to keep that promise and not seek re-election next year, but now he will apparently be leaving the House early. During the weekend, President Trump nominated Rep. Bridenstine as the next NASA Administrator.
Upon confirmation to his new position, the Congressman will resign his Tulsa-anchored congressional district meaning yet another special election will be scheduled in advance of the regular midterm vote. Five Republicans and no Democrats announced their candidacies before the Bridenstine appointment. Businessman Kevin Hern appears to have the most resources to bring to the campaign. Former Tulsa County District Attorney Tim Harris, state Sen. Nathan Dahm, attorney Andy Coleman, and Baptist pastor Danny Stockstill comprise the current candidate field. We can expect more action now that the seat will be in special election mode. --Jim Ellis Three-term Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Westville/ Muskogee) on Wednesday officially eschewed his original campaign promise to serve no more than three terms, and announced that he will seek re-election in 2018. Mr. Mullin has a safe seat, thus his only political danger could come in a Republican primary. With two GOP primary opponents already announced, interestingly both named Jackson, it remains to be seen whether either of these individuals, or a yet unknown potential candidate, will be able to mount a significant challenge. Chances are Mr. Mullin survives the broken term-limit pledge and easily wins re-election.
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