A total of 24 states will host nomination elections in June, ten of which are postponed from earlier dates. Tomorrow is the biggest day, with ten states holding elections. Eight will vote in their presidential primaries (Iowa and Idaho held their presidential nominating votes earlier in the year).
June 2nd hosts regular state primaries on their originally scheduled date in Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota. New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has postponed the presidential and state primary to July 7th, thus opting out of its traditional early June nomination date because of Coronavirus precautions.
A presidential stand-alone event is occurring in Rhode Island tomorrow, necessary since their regular state primary is scheduled as one of the latest in the country on September 15th. Postponed state primaries from earlier in the year are happening in the District of Columbia, Idaho, Indiana, Maryland, and Pennsylvania.
CNN conducted a nationwide political poll (5/7-10; 1,112 US adults; 1,001 registered voters; 302 over sample in 15 battleground states) and compared the national results to those found in 15 battleground states. The latter group included the typical swing states like Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin, but also added Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia, places where former Vice President Joe Biden has developed significant leads.
On the national count, as found in most other polls, Mr. Biden leads President Trump, 51-46%, but the numbers are virtually reversed, 52-45%, in Mr. Trump’s favor within the all-important battleground states.
Candidate filing closed in New Mexico earlier this week, and 3rd District Congressman Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/Santa Fe) will run unopposed for his party’s open US Senate nomination in the June primary. Becoming the Democratic Party standard bearer in this situation makes him a heavy favorite in the fall to succeed retiring Sen. Tom Udall (D). Five Republicans filed, but none have ever been elected to any office.
Emerson College provides us possibly the first Democratic presidential nomination survey data for one of the late primary states, New Mexico, whose electorate will vote with a group of three other states and the District of Columbia on June 2nd.
According to the survey (1/4-6; 447 NM likely Democratic primary voters), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) edges former Vice President Joe Biden, 28-27%, with businessman Andrew Yang surprisingly in third position with 10%. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Mayor Pete Buttigieg follow with only 8 and 7% preference, while former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg records a small 3% support figure. New Mexico has 34 first ballot delegates.
Though the open New Mexico Democratic primary isn’t until next June, it appears we already have a consensus nominee.
Dropping out of the Democratic Senate race is New Mexico Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver, who found that she could not develop any traction against Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/Santa Fe). At this point, it appears the Congressman is unopposed for the Democratic nominee, and the party standard bearer at least will begin with a heavy advantage in the general election. It appears Mr. Lujan is well positioned to replace retiring Sen. Tom Udall (D).
Reports say New Mexico Oil & Gas Association chair Claire Chase (R) is scheduled to announce her candidacy against freshman Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D-Las Cruces) in the state’s southern congressional district. Assuming Ms. Chase wins the Republican nomination, it is highly likely that we will see a race based upon the Green New Deal and its promise to eliminate the fossil fuels industry within twelve years. Southeastern New Mexico is rich in oil and gas, thus placing the energy issue as the focal point of this impending campaign.
GBAO Strategy & Research conducted the first poll of the open seat Democratic primary (4/15-18; 600 NM likely Democratic primary voters) and finds Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/ Santa Fe) jumping out to a huge 64-25% lead over just-announced Senate candidate Maggie Toulouse Oliver, the New Mexico Secretary of State.
Rep. Lujan has already attracted major endorsements including the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, but this did not dissuade Ms. Oliver from entering. No Republican has yet announced. Sen. Tom Udall (D) is retiring.
As expected, Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/Santa Fe) is not going to have a free ride to the open Democratic US Senate nomination despite him already scoring major endorsements such as the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Yesterday, New Mexico Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver (D) announced that she will run for the party nomination in hopes of succeeding retiring Sen. Tom Udall (D). In November, Ms. Oliver was re-elected to a four-year term with a 58-37% margin. Therefore, she will not have to risk her current position to run for the Senate.
Rep. Lujan is favored for the nomination and the general election. So far, the only Republican to declare for the race is Gavin Clarkson, the college professor who Ms. Oliver defeated in November.
Despite US Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/Santa Fe) securing key endorsements such as his latest from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, New Mexico Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver (D) just filed a campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission and says to expect an announcement soon. While Rep. Lujan is favored to win the open seat party nomination and the general election to replace retiring Sen. Tom Udall (D), he is now likely drawing significant opposition.
Chris Mathys, who lost the GOP nomination for a district position on the New Mexico Regulation Commission by a mere 25 votes last June, is returning to run for a higher office. This week, Mr. Mathys announced that he will compete for the GOP nomination to face freshman Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D-Las Cruces) in a general election campaign that will be competitive.
But first, Mr. Mathys will have to deny former state Rep. Yvette Harrell (R) re-nomination. In November, she held then-candidate Torres Small to a tight 51-49% victory margin.
The Rundown Blog
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