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St. Anselm’s University, as part of their statewide poll (8/16-17; 1,042 NH registered voters; 475 GOP primary voters; online), tested the US Senate Republican primary. The results find businessman Corky Messner edging retired Army General Don Bolduc, 31-29%, a much different result than the Tarrance Group found for the Messner campaign in July. That poll (7/13-14; 401 NH likely Republican primary voters) gave Mr. Messner a 39-27% lead. The Republican primary winner faces Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in November. The New Hampshire nomination vote is set for September 8th.
While the New Hampshire electorate is routinely polled during nomination season, as this state’s electorate is the first to cast their primary ballots, rarely do we see a general election poll from the small New England state. Manchester-based St. Anselm’s College, however, just released their new Granite State data (8/15-17; 1,042 NH registered voters; online) and finds former Vice President Joe Biden holding an eight-point lead over President Trump, 51-43%, in a state that was only decided by 2,736 votes in 2016.
The eventual Republican campaign against incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is slow starting because of the state’s late September 8th primary, but self-funding businessman Corky Messner is jumping out to a strong lead over retired Brigadier Gen. Don Bolduc.
According to a new Tarrance Group survey (7/12-14; 401 NH likely Republican primary voters), Mr. Messner hold a 39-27% lead over Gen. Bolduc who has been campaigning in the Republican primary for months but raised little in the way of election funds. The race against Sen. Shaheen is a long shot for the GOP, but Mr. Messner appears well positioned to advance into the general election. The Granite State’s St. Anselm University, which conducts political polling, just completed an online survey of 1,072 registered voters during the June 13-16 period. The results find former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump, 49-42%. This tracks in the same average range as was recorded for Hillary Clinton during the commensurate period in 2016. In the end, however, New Hampshire’s actual vote margin was one of the closest in the country, with Ms. Clinton carrying the state by only 2,736 votes.
We Ask America surveyed the New Hampshire electorate (6/13-15; 500 likely NH general election voters) and found two-term Gov. Chris Sununu (R) topping state Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes (D-Concord) by a whopping 59-20% spread. Gov. Sununu also records an eye-popping 76:16% job approval ratio.
New Hampshire, like neighboring Vermont, awards its Governor only two-year terms. Therefore, even though Mr. Sununu is seeking his third term, he is only coming to the end of his fourth year in office. The New Hampshire Senate campaign has been a quiet one so far, but that is beginning to change. Self-funding Republican candidate Corky Messner, a business owner and West Point graduate, just hit the airwaves with the first commercial of the campaign. The positive spot reviews his biography.
Mr. Messner has already invested more than $3 million of his own money into his campaign and has a large $3.01 million to $102,000 cash-on-hand advantage over his GOP opponent, retired Army Gen. Don Bolduc. The eventual Republican nominee challenges two-term Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in November. The New Hampshire primary has much time remaining since the nomination election isn’t until September 8th. Sen. Shaheen has raised $11.5 million for the race and reports over $7 million in the bank. She is the clear favorite to win re-election in November. St. Anselm College, frequently the site of presidential debates before the New Hampshire primary, also polls the state’s electorate from time to time. Their latest conducted survey, from April 23-27 (820 NH registered voters), finds former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump, 50-42%.
Looking through the Real Clear Politics polling archives finds the earliest Trump-Hillary Clinton 2016 New Hampshire polls were taken in September of that election year. Consistent with the current data, the average margin spread among the eight polls from that year’s early polling period found Ms. Clinton leading Mr. Trump by virtually the same spread as St. Anselm’s sees today, 7.25%. The final New Hampshire tally found Ms. Clinton winning the state, but the margin closed to a razor-thin 46.8 - 46.5% spread. If the Coronavirus is still a major threat before the state’s September 8th primary, Secretary of State Bill Gardner (D) and legislative leaders agreed that they will suspend the absentee ballot requirement that a voter have an excuse for not voting in person.
In the district that has defeated more incumbents than any seat in the nation since 2004, state Rep. William Fowler (R) announced that he will not file for Congress and instead endorsed former White House aide and NH Republican Party executive director Matt Mowers for the GOP nomination. The September 8th primary is shaping up as a battle between Mr. Mowers and former Dover City Councilman and ex-NH Republican Party Vice Chairman Matt Mayberry. The winner faces freshman Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester).
Former state House Speaker Bill O’Brien (R) has ended his US Senate bid and endorsed wealthy attorney Corky Messner (R) against incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). Retired Army General Don Bolduc (R) remains in the race but is at a major financial disadvantage against Mr. Messner who has the ability to self-fund his campaign. The New Hampshire primary is not until September 8th, so this race still has much time to develop. Sen. Shaheen is a strong favorite in the November general election.
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