Baton Rouge-based JMC Enterprises went back into the field to test the Louisiana electorate in anticipation of the state’s October 12th gubernatorial election. The survey (9/19-21; 550 LA likely voters) finds Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) hitting the 48% mark against his two major opponents, US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) and developer Eddie Rispone (R). The two Republicans record 22 and 20%, but this time it’s Rispone who jumps into second position. Previously, Rep. Abraham had consistently been second. Mr. Rispone is spending millions of his own dollars to advertise.
JMC completed a poll last week (9/14-17; 600 LA likely voters) that projected Gov. Edwards with only 41%. If a candidate reaches majority support in the October election, the individual is elected outright. If no one secures 50%, the top two will face each other in a run-off election on November 16th. Recent polling has shown Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) nearing the 50% mark for the October 12th gubernatorial election. Obtaining majority support in a jungle primary format means a candidate is elected outright. But Baton Rouge-based JMC Analytics, a frequent Louisiana pollster, sees the Governor in a tighter race than other research firms. According to the JMC data (9/14-17; 600 LA likely voters), Mr. Edwards secures only 41% support as compared to Rep. Ralph Abraham’s (R-Alto/Monroe) 24%, and developer Eddie Rispone who posts 16 percent.
Though Edwards still has a healthy lead and will undoubtedly finish first in the primary election, the big question remains as to whether he can reach the majority mark. If he does not, and this JMC survey would project he falls short, then the Governor could face trouble in a one-on-one match with a Republican, most likely Rep. Abraham, in the November 16th run-off election. A newly released internal Remington Research campaign poll (conducted for the Ralph Abraham for Governor campaign; 9/10-11; 1,144 LA likely voters via interactive response system) confirms previous polling that gives Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) a large lead in the October 12th jungle primary. But, like the others, it doesn’t quite yet show him avoiding a run-off. Should the race advance to a November 16th run-off election, the tables could turn in the Republicans’ favor.
According Remington, Gov. Edwards commands 45% support as compared to US Rep. Ralph Abraham’s (R-Alto/Monroe) 27%, and developer Eddie Rispone pulling 19%. In a run-off election, however, the race tightens. Gov. Edwards would lead Rep. Abraham only 48-44%, and Mr. Rispone 49-44%. The Governor is dominating Abraham in the money chase, however. Going into the campaign’s final weeks Mr. Edwards is showing $5.7 million cash-on-hand as compared to Rep. Abraham’s $1.4 million. Mr. Rispone, a self-funder who has already contributed $11.5 million to his campaign reports $6.3 million remaining in his campaign account. Baton Rouge-based pollster Bernie Pinsonat of the Southern Media and Opinion Research firm just released his new survey of the Louisiana electorate (9/3-6; 500 “chronic” voters) and the results suggest that Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is on the cusp of winning outright in the October 12th jungle primary.
According to the Pinsonat data, Gov. Edwards commands 47% support as compared to US Rep. Ralph Abraham’s (R-Alto/Monroe) 24%, with developer Eddie Rispone pulling 16%. The key for the challengers, particularly Abraham who will be the one to advance if there is a run-off, is to force a November 16th secondary election. If no one receives majority support in the jungle primary, the top two finishers advance to a run-off. It is clear that Edwards will finish first. The question is will he go over the top or be forced into what could become, for him, a dangerous secondary election. A just-released mid-August Market Research Insight survey (8/13-16; 600 LA likely 2019 jungle primary voters) finds Gov. John Bel Edwards performing well enough in the prelude to the October 12th jungle primary election that he may be re-elected outright. According to the results, Gov. Edwards would score a 52-25-19% victory over US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) and developer Eddie Rispone (R).
Should any candidate exceed majority support in the October election, the individual will be elected outright. If no candidate reaches the 50% plateau, a November 16th run-off election will be conducted between the top two finishers regardless of their political party affiliation. For Gov. Edwards, his numbers in the three-way race are better than if he’s forced into a run-off. Against Rep. Abraham, his lead would dip to 53-47%. If Mr. Rispone advanced opposite the Governor, the Edwards’ margin would be 55-45%. The candidate filing deadline has now passed in Louisiana, and no unexpected entry came forward. Therefore, it is now clear that Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) officially faces US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) and developer Eddie Rispone along with six minor candidates.
Now, the group advances to the October 12th jungle primary where all of the candidates will appear on the same ballot. If one contender receives majority support in that election, the individual is elected. If no one reaches 50%, the top two will advance to a November 16th run-off vote. Current polls suggest Gov. Edwards leads the primary balloting but would fall under 50%. A run-off election, early data portends, favors the Governor but the numbers are close enough to indicate the final vote could end in close fashion. As reported in the Baton Rouge Advocate news publication, Market Research Insight conducted a poll of Louisiana voters (released 6/20; 600 LA registered voters) and finds incumbent John Bel Edwards (D) regaining a substantial lead in the upcoming 2019 Governor’s race. Mr. Edwards, according to MRI, leads US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) and developer Eddie Rispone (R), 46-17-5%, a far better margin than detected in recent surveys. In isolated run-off pairings, Gov. Edwards would out pace Rep. Abraham 45-28%, and Mr. Rispone, 47-23%.
The MRI poll could have a Democratic skew, however, because President Trump’s numbers were abnormally low in a state of proven strength for him. The Advocate column also points out that while MRI correctly projected the 2015 Louisiana Governor’s race, the firm’s data was wholly inaccurate for the 2017 New Orleans Mayor’s contest. The Remington Research Group released the findings of their Louisiana Governor’s poll taken immediately after Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) signed the controversial heart beat abortion bill. The poll (6/1-2; 1,471 LA registered voters through interactive voice response system) found that the abortion issue has yet to take hold because the numbers did not precipitously change from the organization’s previous poll conducted in March. In the current survey, Gov. Edwards would lead the 2019 jungle primary, 43-34-8%, over Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) and developer Eddie Rispone (R), respectively.
When the two Republicans are isolated against Edwards, the Governor’s numbers drop slightly against Abraham but improve when opposing Rispone. Paired against Rep. Abraham, the two would tie at 45% apiece. Opposite Mr. Rispone, Gov. Edwards would lead 49-38%. In March, Gov. Edwards led 47-45% over Abraham and 48-42% against Rispone. JMC Analytics, a regular pollster of the Louisiana electorate, just reported the results of their new survey (4/25-27 & 29; 650 LA registered voters) for the upcoming Governor’s election. According to the JMC data, the October 12th jungle primary finds Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) leading US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/ Monroe) and developer Eddie Rispone (R), 38-23-7%.
In tested general election run-offs, Gov. Edwards would top Rep. Abraham by a slight 40-36% count, while his advantage against Rispone would balloon to 41-28%. These rather tepid numbers for the incumbent suggest that this competitive Governor’s campaign will become even tighter as we move toward the statewide election day later this year. Remington Research, polling for gubernatorial candidate Ralph Abraham (R), released their latest data for the impending 2019 Governor’s race featuring incumbent John Bel Edwards (D) seeking re-election. The new poll (3/13-14; 1464 LA likely voters; 732 self-identified Democratic voters) finds Gov. Edwards holding a 44-33-10% jungle primary lead over Rep. Abraham (R-Alto/ Monroe) and developer Eddie Rispone (R), respectively.
If no candidate receives a majority vote in the October 12th primary, the top two finishers would face each other in the general election on November 16th. In the head-to-head pairings, Gov. Edwards would top Rep. Abraham, 47-45%, and Mr. Rispone, 48-42%. The results obviously indicate that a very close race could develop later this year. In an interesting aside, the pollsters asked Democratic voters if they would definitely support Gov. Edwards, consider voting for another Democrat, or are not planning to support any Democratic gubernatorial candidate. The results: 59% reported definitely backing Mr. Edwards, with 19% saying they are not planning to vote Democratic. An additional 17% said they would consider voting for a Democrat other than Gov. Edwards. |
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